For the last few years I’ve always
questioned why the Yankee hate was still around. When I was younger it always made sense since they were in
the playoffs every year and they always seemed to be in the World Series, which
could make fans mad since they never see their team. Then they bought all these expensive players and “bought”
their team making it so other teams didn’t have a chance to get the player
themselves. This is all fine and
good and if you don’t like the Yankees that’s fine; I personally have not hate
towards a team in general and least of all the Yankees. This year the Yanks have had it rough
even if the standings don’t actually show it. Today I want to take a look at how the New York Yankees have
been and why the down fall is most likely on its way.
The
Yankees are sitting right now in 2nd place in the AL East with a
record of 36-26. A highly
respectable record giving that they’ve had enough people on the Disabled List
(DL) to man an entire team so far.
The hot start came from the surprise resurgence of players like Vernon
Wells and Lyle Overbay. But lets
see what the stats say and if the Yanks can keep this up or will the luck start
to run out.
As
of right now the team is batting .245/.307/.397 which is average and down from
where the team started the season.
If you look at the last month the team is batting .230 due to the hot
players starting to average out.
Vernon Wells as an example has a OPS+ of 85 meaning he’s hitting 85%
below league average OPS given the park factors and such. He was a major driving force for the
team in the early months. Since
the early months of the season his K% is up above his career total 13.1% to
14.2% not a huge difference but that means he’s getting out more. Wells is also getting unlucky with a
BABIP (Batting Average on Balls in Play) of .239, which is well below career
numbers of .278. Not everything
can be blamed on 1 player though; this is just a small example to show that the
team is struggling due to lack of power.
In
the last month the team has had 55 extra base hits (double, triple or HR) out
of 841 possible plate appearances meaning the team gets an extra base hit about
6% of the time or every 15 PA. As
a comparison, the Anaheim Angels have 80 extra base hits in 849 PA meaning they
get an extra base hit about 10% of the time or about every 10 PA; that may not
look like much but it can make a difference. Only 3 Yankees have more then 10 HR’s and 2 have 10: Robison
Cano, Vernon Wells and Travis Hafner.
Of the 3 Cano averages a HR about every 18 PA, Well’s is averaging one
every 22 PA and Hafner every 15.
Hafner is about 50 PA shorter then both Can and Wells to be far. As an experiment lets see how they will
pan out the rest of the season at this pace, we’ll give them about 550 PA. Cano should end the season with roughly
30 HR’s which is good and is on pace for his career numbers. Well’s he could end the season with a
25 HR season which if you look at career is right on pace and Hafner is on pace
for a 36 HR. So why am I focusing
on these guys in particular? These
are the only power threats the Yankees have and 2 of them will most likely be
injured at some point. 550 is a
lot of PA and it may vary but if the Yanks want to survive to the playoffs they
need power fast. This doesn’t look
like a thing they can fix internally and I can see them looking for trades to
help. There are more holes that
could be touched up but the power numbers need to return or at least get more
doubles to stay in the race.
Hitting
may be one weak area but pitching has been a good surprise for the team. The starters have had their hiccups
here and there but for the most part they have kept the team moving forward
while the hitting gets stagnate.
The starters have average a 4.05 ERA which isn’t great but is below the
AL league average and slightly above MLB average for all pitchers. The pitcher that has helped the team is
David Phelps, coming from the bullpen when Pettitte went down with an injury
and coming in strong with a 9.1 K% and a 3.90 ERA. He may give to many walks at nearly 4 BB/9 but for now its
not hurting him. Nothing in the
stats say Phelps is getting lucky either; a BABIP that is only a few points
higher than his career line and a strand rate of 66% is lower than his career
as well. If he can keep it up it
could help the team as they hitting stabilizes. The team has been pitching well in the last 2 weeks with a
3.32 ERA and 1.16 WHIP, which is why the Yankees are 7-4 in that time frame.
In
the end the Yankees have one major issue right now and its not the hitting or
pitching. The team needs to be
able to stay healthy long enough to actually play the game. They currently have 6 players on the DL
and that’s actually 3 less from the last time I checked the list. Age is a problem for the team in the
long term and the front office knows it; Brian Cashman is preparing the teams
future by not trading all the top prospects during the deadline and avoiding
the big signings that cost them a pick.
I still see the Yanks making the playoffs this year one way or another,
but at the same time they are the weakest of the 3 big teams in the AL East and
have a lot of work to get back on top.
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