Sunday, September 7, 2014

Raising Star or Career Year for Josh Harrison?


            The Pirates surprised everyone last season coming from nowhere to make the playoffs.  Even with an early departure from the playoffs the Pirates turned some heads and raised the expectations of the team.  2014 the team has not failed to meet expectations but they don’t seem playoff bound either.  The good thing to come of this is the raise of a new player that could help the Pirates in the coming years if he can keep up what he’s doing.  Today we take a look at utility infielder Josh Harrison and see how a player that has a career .311 OBP turned into this teams saving grace.
Batting

BB%
K%
AVG
OBP
SLG
OPS
ISO
BABIP
wOBA
wRC+
WAR
2014
4.5%
14.9%
.315
.348
.513
.860
.198
.349
.374
142
4.4
2013
2.1%
10.5%
.250
.290
.409
.699
.159
.253
.307
96
0.1
Career
3.5%
13.5%
.279
.311
.432
.744
.153
.308
.324
106
5.6
NL
7.6%
20.9%
.249
.312
.384
.696
.134
.299
.308
93
1.4

            Looking at the numbers there are reasons to be very skeptical.  If we were to take out this seasons totals his career lines are .250/.282/.367 a very underwhelming slash line and also very typical for a guy like Harrison.  Prior to this season the Pirates utilized him as a utility player.  According to the Bill James Handbook he’s played 2B 11 times, 3B-7, SS-4, LF-1, RF-14, PH-30 and PR-7 times last year; no set position and very typical of a UTIL guy.  As for this season he’s defiantly having a breakout season with a strong slash line and hitting for some very good power with 53 XBH.  In fact Harrison’s 13 HR’s this seasons makes up 65% of the HR’s in his career.  The one good thing that can be said is the low K% is actually legit.  In fact this years 14.9% is his career worst K% and it’s still lower than the league average by almost 5%.
Batted Ball

LD%
GB%
FB%
HR/FB
GB/FB
IFH%
BUH%
2014
23.8%
37.0%
39.2%
9.1%
0.94
11.9%
20.0%
2013
18.7%
46.7%
34.7%
11.5%
1.35
0.0%
20.0%
Career
21.6%
39.4%
39.0%
6.3%
1.01
8.7%
25.8%
NL
20.7%
45.6%
33.7%
9.7%
1.35
6.2%
20.8%

            When compared to last year there seems to be a very sharp difference with the type of contact that Harrison is getting.  More line drives and less groundballs do potentially mean harder hits and more solid contact.  This isn’t always the case but it does lead to a good argument for it.  For Harrison it seems to be the reason for his increased level of offense and, more importantly, his power.  As we stated Harrison has 53 XBH’s this year and this is more than his pervious seasons in the major combined.  In 2011-13 Harrison combined for a 39 XBH’s and this means that 57% of Harrisons XBH’s have come this season alone.  Harrison hasn’t hit at these types of levels in terms of GB/FB since 2012 where he didn’t really hit for much power.  This could be a sign of improvement for Harrison but we may need to see another year of this before we can start saying it’s a trend.
Plate Discipline

O-Swing
Z-Swing
Swing
O-Contact
Z-Contact
Contact
F-Strike
SwStr
2014
39.7%
67.7%
53.0%
73.1%
86.3%
81.2%
60.4%
9.8%
2013
39.6%
69.2%
54.2%
81.4%
87.4%
85.2%
65.3%
8.0%
Career
38.7%
67.3%
52.5%
75.6%
87.5%
83.0%
60.9%
8.8%
NL
31.7%
66.1%
47.1%
65.0%
86.9%
78.8%
60.9%
9.8%

            It shouldn’t really be that big of a surprise that Harrison is a free swinger considering his pathetically low BB%.  As we’ve seen proven time and time again a high BB% isn’t necessity but free swingers tend to be a little streaky.  As long as a player is making contact at a solid rate, as Harrison is, you can forgive the low BB% and high swing rate.  Harrison is a very solid contact player but he does swing a lot at pitches outside the zone while not making a lot of contact on those pitches.  Overall Harrison is about average when it comes to the amount of contact even if he does swing at pitches outside the zone a little too often.

            Josh Harrison is a great story for the season.  A player that has a career as a UTIL player then given his first chance to start and he runs away with it.  While we see he is a good contact hitter with a decent K% the power doesn’t seem to be legit.  Moving forward I can see Harrison being a .280/.325/.398 player and as a 2B with good defensive skills that could land him a starting role with the Pirates.

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