Trying
to find the next new trend seems to be the hot thing in baseball now and
days. First was the use of the
defensive shift to try and gain an advantage against power hitters and exploit
their weaknesses to the max. Managers
will do anything for an edge and that doesn’t end on the defensive side in fact
it works on both ends. Players
being in a platoon situation was not common but happened in the past but 2014
showed us how effective the strategy really could be and today’s player we’re
looking at is, at least in my eyes, the poster child of the platoon Seth Smith.
|
BB%
|
K%
|
AVG
|
OBP
|
SLG
|
OPS
|
ISO
|
BABIP
|
wOBA
|
wRC+
|
WAR
|
2014
|
13.2%
|
16.7%
|
.266
|
.367
|
.440
|
.807
|
.174
|
.305
|
.357
|
133
|
2.6
|
2013
|
9.5%
|
22.9%
|
.253
|
.329
|
.391
|
.721
|
.139
|
.320
|
.318
|
102
|
1.1
|
Career
|
10.6%
|
18.6%
|
.265
|
.347
|
.453
|
.800
|
.188
|
.304
|
.347
|
112
|
10.3
|
Smith
had a lot of potential when he was drafted in the 2nd round by the
Colorado Rockies and for the most part he succeeded even if he didn’t have
regular playing time until 2009 where he batted .293/.378/.510 in 387 plate
appearances. After that season
though his career was very up and down with his production. Hovering around a .253 batting average
but keeping an impressive .340 OBP going.
So what was so off about him?
Well lets look at another data set and I’ll show you:
Career Splits
|
BB%
|
K%
|
AVG
|
OBP
|
SLG
|
OPS
|
ISO
|
BABIP
|
wOBA
|
wRC+
|
RHP
|
10.7%
|
18.2%
|
.277
|
.358
|
.481
|
.839
|
.204
|
.314
|
.362
|
123
|
LHP
|
10.4%
|
21.8%
|
.205
|
.291
|
.314
|
.605
|
.109
|
.250
|
.274
|
63
|
As
we can see there’s a reason I called him my “poster child” of platooning. His numbers are just terrible versus a
LHP and it really drags everything else about him down. The Padres saw this too, they played
him only when the team started a RHP and his numbers stayed very strong until a
slump near the end of the season dragged him down a little. Heck this is a guy that at one point
was in the top 50 of ESPN’s player rater for hitters and he was in a platoon!
Pros:
Smith
is a good hitter from the left side; one might say he’s an all around hitter
versus RHP. He has power and a
very rare ability to take a walk while still hitting for a good average. While he did slump near the end of the
season he did at one point own a .300 average with a .360 OBP, which is always
a good thing to have on a team. He
has a good eye only striking out 16.7% of the time and that is his best rate
since his rookie years. Smith has
shown the ability to hit to all fields not just focusing on pulling which is a
very good thing considering shifts against left handed batters is very common,
especially if they have power.
Speaking of power Smith is no slouch in that area having decent homerun
totals for a guy playing in Petco and more importantly having a solid ISO signifying
that he is hitting for more power than just homers.
Cons: Never bat him against LHP, no
joke this guy is just terrible against them. The chart above shows you the numbers and they speak for
themselves. He looks lost against
LHP and that’s going to limit him in playing time, if the manager is smart that
is. Smith is a fine defender but
not a great one so that is something to keep in mind when he is playing. He is a platoon player and at 32 the
odds of him getting better against LHP is 0 to none.
Contract: Smith fit into the
slightly above average slot on WAR at 2.6 so he could ask for a good amount of
money. But his major weakness is
going to hold back all talks of major payday since no one is going to shell out
big bucks for a player that will only play against RHP, even if most pitchers
in baseball are RHP. I wouldn’t be
shocked that Smith tries for a 3-year deal or at least a 2-year with an option
for a third likely a team option.
Someone that is a good comparison to Seth Smith would be Brandon Moss, a
fellow platoon player that only hits RHP, so we can use his $4.1 million a year
deal as a good starting place and that is about what Smith could expect. Using my best judgment I was say a $12
million for 3 year deal would be fine for him but that may be a little
high. A more likely deal would be
in the range of $8 million for 2 years with a team option for a third and the
option likely worth $3 million.
Teams:
New York Yankees: The Yankees are
going to need some pop in their lineup next season and Smith has 2 things they
could use. He is an experienced
hitter with the ability to hit for average and power but walk as well. The second thing is Smith will be
cheaper than other options on the market at this time. Good field for Smith as well who could
spread the ball around in that outfield.
The only thing that is a snag is if the Yankees can find a good
right-handed batter to go against LHP when Smith is benched.
Cleveland Indians: The Indians have
a rather weak outfield outside of Michael Brantly and they could use an upgrade
to David Murphy. Though Murphy was
decent for most of the year he did have his fair share of struggles. Smith would be an upgrade to what Smith
did last year but the same issue as the Yankees shows up. The team doesn’t have a strong
right-handed batter to platoon with Smith, which limits his value.
Detroit Tigers: This team has been
showing up in my recent articles a lot and for good reason. The team needs help and they have to
spend money to do it; lucky for them though Smith would come relatively cheap
and the team has the bonus of having a deeper outfield staff to platoon him
with. Really not a terrible option
for the team but more likely to go for Alex Rios than Smith.
New York Mets: Hey what do you know
they both made a list for once!
Yes the Mets outfield is a mess and while Smith would be an upgrade he
still has the same issues as their neighbors. Signing Smith would require them to find a strong
right-handed batter to platoon since they don’t have one now.
Pittsburgh Pirates: While im almost
100% certain that the team is going to be using Gregory Polanco as their
starting RF but with Polanco struggling after a quick surge he did slump so
Smith could be an option. It’s a
long shot but it is a possibility.
San Diego Padres: This is a choice
just because it’s where he came from and the team could use him. The injury-plagued 2014 season was a
lost season for the team but they do have a good team they just need to stay
healthy and all they need those players that struggled to step it up.
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