Free Agent Outlook: Adam LaRoche

Free Agent Outlook: Adam LaRoche

            It this era of pitching every team is trying desperately to gather up as much hitting as possible.  Any hitting they can capitalize on to give the team an edge over the other lineup.  Most teams will do what they can to avoid hitters like Seth Smith, who is a solid hitter but to situational, but an all-around hitter like Adam LaRoche is going to get a lot of looks from teams this offseason.  The real question is how long this spry young 35-year-old left handed power hitter will hold up after coming off a strong 2014 season.

	BB%	K%	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	wOBA	wRC+	WAR
2014	14.0%	18.4%	.259	.362	.455	.817	.196	.277	.356	127	1.6
2013	12.2%	22.2%	.237	.332	.403	.735	.166	.277	.321	102	0.5
Career	10.3%	21.8%	.264	.340	.472	.811	.208	.302	.348	113	12.1

            LaRoche has had a very solid career thus far and for a guy that seems to take the first month of the season off he does end the season very strong on average.  2014 was a nice bounce back for the well-traveled first baseman and most interesting is the fact that he did all this with the lowering BABIP.  Then again batting average has never been LaRoche’s strength it’s his power and his ability to take a walk.  Oh he gets hits and does on average hit above the league average but he isn’t what we’d call a consistent hitter.

Pros:

            LaRoche isn’t a contact hitter but every good stat guy knows one thing about batting average, it’s a terrible measurment of a players skills.  On the other hand what is very impressive and is what LaRoche is going to rely on for another payday is the power numbers he’s had.  He averages an extra base hit every 9 plate appearances and that is counting doubles and triples.  That is a very strong total for a guy who’s BABIP is right at the league average.  Not only does he have power to rely on but his ability to take a walk is good as well.  In an era of the free swingers LaRoche manages to balance it out and be highly successful.

Cons: LaRoche is 34 as of now and will 35 before the start of next season.  This is the time players really start to show signs of regression due to age and LaRoche has already quietly shown them.  Injuries have been an issue for him since 2011 when he first signed with the team and only played 43 games with the team.  While I said LaRoche is a good walker he also is a free swinger and does have a high strikeout rate, something that isn’t going to get better since with age comes slowing bat speed.  Lower power numbers will follow lower bat speed and lower contact rates so his OBP will likely take a hit at some point.  His defense is bad and I mean really bad but at least he is at first base and that isn’t as big of a deal.

Contract: This is a hard one to gauge since he’s going to be wanted by teams but he’s still 35.  His contract he had was a 2-year $24 million with a option for a 3^rd year, an option that the Nationals declined already, but is he really worth that kind of money?  At this point now he’s not since any team who signs him will have to take age into account and no matter how offensively good LaRoche was last year but his age and defense will hurt his next contract.  If I had to guess he will get a 1-year deal but with a team option with for a 2^nd year.  As for money I would gauge that he could make about 9.5 million for the first year and a 7 million option.  Will this happen?  I really can’t say since my estimation is just that, an estimation, and I have a feeling he’ll be seeking much more.

Teams:

Baltimore Orioles- This is all depending on the faith they have on Chris Davis.  Davis was a shadow of himself in 2014 but the real issue for the Orioles is that Davis was closer to his career totals in 2014 than 2013 was.  If the team wants to build up the impressive offense they’ve developed and they have the funds to sign LaRoche than this could be a good landing spot.

New York Yankees- The team needs hitting and he’s a very strong hitter that could help.  The issue is he’s 35 in 2015 and the team doesn’t need an older player when they’re trying to get younger.  The budget is going to be a question since we don’t know if the team is going to try and save money or just go all out.

Oakland Athletics- Considering the offensive woes of the team at the end of the season the team could be looking to upgrade.  The main issue will be the money involved since the team’s budget is one of the smaller budgets and if the team is serious on retaining Jon Lester.  If the team goes with Lester then they may miss out on the LaRoche bidding.

Seattle Mariners- The team is looking to upgrade offense but the last thing they need is another left-handed batter.  The team needs a new 1^st baseman but really the money might not be there and again they don’t need another lefty power hitter.

Washington Nationals- He was on this team last year and they would probably be the frontrunners to retain his services.  He’s a good fit in Washington and it may even come at a discount.  Yes they didn’t give him the option for a 3^rd year but that doesn’t mean they don’t want him anymore just a new contract.

Milwaukee Brewers- Offense was up and down for this team last year and they could use someone that could stabilize them.  A strong fit in the lineup but at the same time the team doesn’t really have a major budget to sign him.  Thanks to the Braun contract the team is going to have to be cheap for a while.

San Diego Padres- I’ve said this before and I’ll say it again, this team is better than they were in 2014.  LaRoche could be a good fit for a team that doesn’t have a solid 1^st base option since Yonder Alonso hasn’t been everything that the team wanted from him.  This is definitely a stretch for the team to actually show interest and sign him but it’s always an option.