One
of the most important factors when determining a player’s value is going to be
the position he plays. After all
if a team doesn’t need an outfielder then they’re not going to sign an
outfielder just to sign the best player in the market. There are some positions however that
always seems to have a large market value: for example catchers and pitchers
are in high demand by most teams.
Today’s subject is in one of those prime positions and happens to be the
one of the top shortstops on the market, for better or worse.
|
|
BB%
|
K%
|
AVG
|
OBP
|
SLG
|
OPS
|
ISO
|
BABIP
|
wOBA
|
wRC+
|
WAR
|
|
2014
|
9.0%
|
14.0%
|
.249
|
.321
|
.355
|
.676
|
.106
|
.281
|
.300
|
93
|
1.9
|
|
2013
|
7.6%
|
13.7%
|
.290
|
.344
|
.446
|
.791
|
.156
|
.319
|
.345
|
120
|
3.5
|
|
Career
|
9.2%
|
16.1%
|
.261
|
.330
|
.411
|
.741
|
.150
|
.292
|
.325
|
103
|
11.2
|
Jed
Lowrie is by no means an elite shortstop but at the same time he brings a
plethora of skills that teams will appreciate. Solid defense, solid hitting, solid base running ability,
and solid knowledge of the game make Lowrie quite the commodity for a team
desperate for a shortstop. Looking
at the last few seasons Lowrie its hard to gauge him as a hitter since he was
coming off a career year in 2013 and having a passable season in 2014 hurt his
stock very little, but it didn’t help him either. The main reason for this off year seems to be a decrease
hard hits and maybe even the stadium itself. While his home field may not have shown much effect on him
in 2013 we can see a drastic decrease in HR/FB ratio from 6.8 in 2013 to 3.2 in
2014, that’s also 3% below his career average HR/FB rate. We also see an increase in infield base
hits from 5% to 7.4% in a span of a season. Not a giant increase but it does support the idea of him
hitting with less authority.
Another clue to his struggles could be the lowered BABIP; while not a
direct correlation between the hard hit theory and his struggles it would be
safe to say that a player that is getting less lucky could just be hitting
softer. Overall Lowrie did fine
last year if not just average and still did far better than many other
shortstops in 2014
Pros:
Lowrie is a jack-of-all-trades type of player and happens to be at a position
where that skill is most appreciated.
Lowrie has a little power that could give you 10-12 homeruns a year,
which doesn’t sound like much but consider shortstops aren’t exactly known for
their power it’s a bonus, and even at the top of the order can score a fair bit
of RBI’s. While not a speedster
Lowrie isn’t a base cloggier either meaning that usually high OBP won’t be dead
weight once he reaches base.
Speaking of his OBP skill Lowrie has a good eye only swinging outside
the strike zone 28.5% of the time last year and that’s 2% more than his career
25%. He does take a fair amount of
walks and that makes him a strong top of the order guy which is something teams
can always use. Defensively Lowrie
is above average as well actually having a far better defensive WAR (21.7) in
his career versus his offensive WAR (0.8) and that alone is a reason teams will
want him up the middle. Its always
nice to have that defense up the middle that you can put them in and not have
to worry about them.
Cons:
There’s a second half to that saying of “jack-of-all-trades” and its “master of
none.” Lowrie fits that to a tee
basically being able to do a little of everything but not going to rock the
world in any. He’ll hit for
average but not a monster one and the same goes for power, his speed will limit
the number of doubles he’ll get as he gets older. Speaking of age Lowrie is 30 and while this is younger than
most of the other players I’ve talked about it still is right at the edge of
the “prime years” scale of 26-31 and it is something to consider. Lowrie seems to have his up and down
years and no real discernable trends to point at and say, “Oh see this is where
he struggles” and that could be frustrating. He’s actually only had 3 seasons out of his 7 total years be
positive in offensive WAR, two of which have been monster seasons for him. Injuries have also been an issue for
him; in 2013 it was the first time in his career he played over 100 games and
last year he played 136 and that’s 18 less from 2013’s total of 152.
Contract:
Looking at his current contract the money is actually what I’d give him but
he’s probably worth more. Given
the lack of solid shortstops in the market he will be a prime target for many
teams and at the relatively young age of 30 he still has some good years ahead
of him. If looking at what someone
like Asdrubal Cabrera made last year, a fellow free agent by the way, I would
say a fair deal for Lowrie would be about $7 million a year. Given his age and value a 3-4 year deal
wouldn’t be out of the question.
Lowrie is probably about to make a good chunk of change very soon.
Teams:
New York Yankees: They are in desperate need of a shortstop and
they may very well go all out for this guy. With Derek Jeter retiring and J.J. Hardy, the team’s first
choice, already signed Lowrie makes perfect sense. He strengthens an already terrible infield defense and adds
a much-needed bat to the lineup.
Best choice for the Yanks and best choice for Lowrie as well.
Cleveland Indians: While I don’t think the team wants to sign
anyone for shortstop at the same time they have no backup plan if their star
rookie Francisco Lindor fails to meet expectations. Lowrie is a good choice if the team has any reservations
about Lindor’s bat.
Detroit Tigers: I’m pretty sure the Tigers have made every list so
far for every player I’ve looked at.
The Tigers have a poor infield defense and Lowrie could help put some
life into it again. Now much like
the Indians the Tigers do have an option that they’ll likely look at before
considering this deal since Jose Inglasis comes off the DL this year and should
be fine. While Inglasis has the
far better glove the bat is still very suspect and Lowrie is the better overall
option.
Houston Astros: So this is an odd choice but at the same time it
makes sense. The team is
rebuilding and they are far closer to being a good team than most give
credit. They don’t want to rely on
Marwin Gonzalez and Jonathan Villar isn’t proving to be what they’d hoped so a
short/long term option is a good idea.
Oakland Athletics: Losing him will be a blow to the team. The A’s are going to have a hard time
really prying him away from the Yankees since the team has far less funds.
Cincinnati Reds: Zack Cozart isn’t a good shortstop and Lowrie
would be a major upgrade. Really
that’s about it, the team can afford him and he helps a lot.
Pittsburgh Pirates: With no solid major options and the only
shortstop in the minors rated as an average player ceiling at best it wouldn’t
hurt the team to consider Lowrie.
While the teams main concern seems to be resigning Russell Martian to a
contract they could keep an eye on the Lowrie bidding to see if he stays at a
lower price.
Colorado Rockies: The Rockies have had issues with shortstop for a
few years now and a solid hitting option is something the team really could
use. While no the most desired
spot to go for Lowrie since the Rockies aren’t a playoff team just yet but he
would be a major piece for a team that needs to stack the offense to make a difference.
Los Angeles Dodgers: This is only an option for the Dodgers if
Hanley Ramirez chooses to go somewhere else and they need a new shortstop. If that were to happen look for them to
have a bidding war with the Yankees since in that scenario neither team can
afford to loss.
