Free Agent Outlook: Jed Lowrie

            One of the most important factors when determining a player’s value is going to be the position he plays.  After all if a team doesn’t need an outfielder then they’re not going to sign an outfielder just to sign the best player in the market.  There are some positions however that always seems to have a large market value: for example catchers and pitchers are in high demand by most teams.  Today’s subject is in one of those prime positions and happens to be the one of the top shortstops on the market, for better or worse.

	BB%	K%	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	wOBA	wRC+	WAR
2014	9.0%	14.0%	.249	.321	.355	.676	.106	.281	.300	93	1.9
2013	7.6%	13.7%	.290	.344	.446	.791	.156	.319	.345	120	3.5
Career	9.2%	16.1%	.261	.330	.411	.741	.150	.292	.325	103	11.2

            Jed Lowrie is by no means an elite shortstop but at the same time he brings a plethora of skills that teams will appreciate.  Solid defense, solid hitting, solid base running ability, and solid knowledge of the game make Lowrie quite the commodity for a team desperate for a shortstop.  Looking at the last few seasons Lowrie its hard to gauge him as a hitter since he was coming off a career year in 2013 and having a passable season in 2014 hurt his stock very little, but it didn’t help him either.  The main reason for this off year seems to be a decrease hard hits and maybe even the stadium itself.  While his home field may not have shown much effect on him in 2013 we can see a drastic decrease in HR/FB ratio from 6.8 in 2013 to 3.2 in 2014, that’s also 3% below his career average HR/FB rate.  We also see an increase in infield base hits from 5% to 7.4% in a span of a season.  Not a giant increase but it does support the idea of him hitting with less authority.  Another clue to his struggles could be the lowered BABIP; while not a direct correlation between the hard hit theory and his struggles it would be safe to say that a player that is getting less lucky could just be hitting softer.  Overall Lowrie did fine last year if not just average and still did far better than many other shortstops in 2014

            Pros: Lowrie is a jack-of-all-trades type of player and happens to be at a position where that skill is most appreciated.  Lowrie has a little power that could give you 10-12 homeruns a year, which doesn’t sound like much but consider shortstops aren’t exactly known for their power it’s a bonus, and even at the top of the order can score a fair bit of RBI’s.  While not a speedster Lowrie isn’t a base cloggier either meaning that usually high OBP won’t be dead weight once he reaches base.  Speaking of his OBP skill Lowrie has a good eye only swinging outside the strike zone 28.5% of the time last year and that’s 2% more than his career 25%.  He does take a fair amount of walks and that makes him a strong top of the order guy which is something teams can always use.  Defensively Lowrie is above average as well actually having a far better defensive WAR (21.7) in his career versus his offensive WAR (0.8) and that alone is a reason teams will want him up the middle.  Its always nice to have that defense up the middle that you can put them in and not have to worry about them.

            Cons: There’s a second half to that saying of “jack-of-all-trades” and its “master of none.”  Lowrie fits that to a tee basically being able to do a little of everything but not going to rock the world in any.  He’ll hit for average but not a monster one and the same goes for power, his speed will limit the number of doubles he’ll get as he gets older.  Speaking of age Lowrie is 30 and while this is younger than most of the other players I’ve talked about it still is right at the edge of the “prime years” scale of 26-31 and it is something to consider.  Lowrie seems to have his up and down years and no real discernable trends to point at and say, “Oh see this is where he struggles” and that could be frustrating.  He’s actually only had 3 seasons out of his 7 total years be positive in offensive WAR, two of which have been monster seasons for him.  Injuries have also been an issue for him; in 2013 it was the first time in his career he played over 100 games and last year he played 136 and that’s 18 less from 2013’s total of 152.

            Contract: Looking at his current contract the money is actually what I’d give him but he’s probably worth more.  Given the lack of solid shortstops in the market he will be a prime target for many teams and at the relatively young age of 30 he still has some good years ahead of him.  If looking at what someone like Asdrubal Cabrera made last year, a fellow free agent by the way, I would say a fair deal for Lowrie would be about $7 million a year.  Given his age and value a 3-4 year deal wouldn’t be out of the question.  Lowrie is probably about to make a good chunk of change very soon.

            Teams:

New York Yankees: They are in desperate need of a shortstop and they may very well go all out for this guy.  With Derek Jeter retiring and J.J. Hardy, the team’s first choice, already signed Lowrie makes perfect sense.  He strengthens an already terrible infield defense and adds a much-needed bat to the lineup.  Best choice for the Yanks and best choice for Lowrie as well.

Cleveland Indians: While I don’t think the team wants to sign anyone for shortstop at the same time they have no backup plan if their star rookie Francisco Lindor fails to meet expectations.  Lowrie is a good choice if the team has any reservations about Lindor’s bat.

Detroit Tigers: I’m pretty sure the Tigers have made every list so far for every player I’ve looked at.  The Tigers have a poor infield defense and Lowrie could help put some life into it again.  Now much like the Indians the Tigers do have an option that they’ll likely look at before considering this deal since Jose Inglasis comes off the DL this year and should be fine.  While Inglasis has the far better glove the bat is still very suspect and Lowrie is the better overall option.

Houston Astros: So this is an odd choice but at the same time it makes sense.  The team is rebuilding and they are far closer to being a good team than most give credit.  They don’t want to rely on Marwin Gonzalez and Jonathan Villar isn’t proving to be what they’d hoped so a short/long term option is a good idea.

Oakland Athletics: Losing him will be a blow to the team.  The A’s are going to have a hard time really prying him away from the Yankees since the team has far less funds.

Cincinnati Reds: Zack Cozart isn’t a good shortstop and Lowrie would be a major upgrade.  Really that’s about it, the team can afford him and he helps a lot.

Pittsburgh Pirates: With no solid major options and the only shortstop in the minors rated as an average player ceiling at best it wouldn’t hurt the team to consider Lowrie.  While the teams main concern seems to be resigning Russell Martian to a contract they could keep an eye on the Lowrie bidding to see if he stays at a lower price.

Colorado Rockies: The Rockies have had issues with shortstop for a few years now and a solid hitting option is something the team really could use.  While no the most desired spot to go for Lowrie since the Rockies aren’t a playoff team just yet but he would be a major piece for a team that needs to stack the offense to make a difference.

Los Angeles Dodgers: This is only an option for the Dodgers if Hanley Ramirez chooses to go somewhere else and they need a new shortstop.  If that were to happen look for them to have a bidding war with the Yankees since in that scenario neither team can afford to loss.