Now
that the season is over its time to start looking at the potential free agents
and see what teams could use these players. Today we look at 2014 break out Melky Cabrera, well ok he’s
not technically a “break out” player since he had his true break out season
back in 2012 but after a disappointing end to that season and a 2013 that was
injury plagued 2014 was a good bounce back break out. First lets look at what Cabrera did in 2014, the good and
the bad.
|
|
BB%
|
K%
|
AVG
|
OBP
|
SLG
|
OPS
|
ISO
|
HR
|
BABIP
|
wOBA
|
wRC+
|
WAR
|
|
Cabrera
|
6.9%
|
10.8%
|
.301
|
.351
|
.458
|
.808
|
.157
|
16
|
.313
|
.354
|
125
|
2.6
|
|
League
AVG
|
7.6%
|
20.4%
|
.251
|
.314
|
.386
|
.700
|
.135
|
139.5
|
.299
|
.310
|
96
|
19
|
2014
was a return to form for Cabrera and he did exactly what many predicted he’d be
like when he was coming up through the minors. The Cabrera we saw in 2011-2012 was an illusion that many
people fooled themselves into thinking was real. He’s not a 20-homer guy like he was averaging those 2
seasons but the 13-16 homer range seems to fit him perfectly. As for his other numbers this year they
really do play to his strengths as a player. Low strikeout rate balances out the low walk rate but his
contact skills really allow him to swing a little more freely and not have to
take a walk.
Strengths:
Cabrera
is a great contact hitter and if his .301 batting average doesn’t sell you on
that his 88.3% contact rate should.
That’s almost 10% better than the rest of baseball, not just the AL or
NL all of baseball. More
impressive is only swinging 45.5% percent of the time means even though he doesn’t
walk often he doesn’t exactly swing freely at anything that he’s thrown. He’s also a great hitter since he can
spray the ball to all fields and shifts aren’t as effective on Cabrera. Looking at spray charts you can see
that Cabrera has an ability to hit liners into the gaps very easily. 21.2% of pitches he made contact with
were line drives this last season which puts him just above average in that
category but it’s the placement that is important. Most are right in the gaps and this accounts for the high
ISO but not having a really high amount of homers. It is nice to see that his power isn’t limited to home or
away since he’s actually hit just as many in Toronto as he did on the road.
Cabrera
isn’t that bad in the field either being one of the better defensive LF in
baseball last year. His .992
fielding percentage ranks in the top percent of LF in baseball. Cabrera had 13 OF assists in 2014 and
even ended the season with a 3.4 runs saved with his arm which is a decent
amount for a LF, a position that isn’t really known for their strong arms. A nice bonus for Cabrera’s future team
is that he’s actually a decent speed guy even if it doesn’t show in the stolen
base stat.
Cons:
Cabrera’s
value really does lie in his ability to make contact and the rest of his
numbers purely rely on that. If
you were to figure out his wOBP he would have a .051 and that’s a very
pedestrian number for a guy who had a very good OBP. Not only that I do worry about the power numbers regressing
a little down the line. Players
like Cabrera do have a tendency to be a little streaky and while he has been
able to avoid that last year but its always a worry. As I stated above he hit just as many homers on the road as
home but I do wonder how that his numbers could change if he goes to teams that
have a little more extreme pitchers park.
This isn’t saying his gap power would change but since Toronto does have
a spacious outfield.
While
his defense is good but his range isn’t terrific having a UZR/150 of -7.1 and
that puts him below average range for all outfielders. Knowing that his range isn’t the best
it also plays into him not being super speedy. He’s an average speed at the best of times and that will
only diminish with age and at 30 his golden years are past him.
Conclusion:
Melky
Cabrera is a great hitter with a good hitters eye and an ability to make solid
contact. Even if he does regress a
little the numbers are consistent enough to make the risk worthwhile. In fact consistent is the best word to
use when describing Cabrera; a .340 OBP guy with an ability to hit the gaps but
can hit homers when the pitcher makes a mistake. Cabrera’s shortcomings with speed aren’t getting any better
moving forward so any team that decides to take a chance on him will have to
insure then can deal with it as he gets older. Luckily for that team unless Cabrera suffers a lead pipe to
the knee he should be fine for the next few years (if you got that 1994
reference give yourself a high five.)
As
for the teams that could really use Cabrera the list isn’t a small one. Looking at the list of 2015 free agents
Cabrera is easily one of the top 3 best free agent outfielders of the bunch,
sadly that list has more bench and platoon guys than starters. Of the 30 players currently scheduled to
hit the market there’s only about 8 players that could be considered starters
and while that sounds like a good thing for Cabrera it could be an issue
finding a team. If there isn’t a
lot of teams looking for outfielders, most retaining their outfield from this
pervious season, then his options are limited to teams looking for an upgrade
and could afford the contract market value will demand. Cabrera was making $8 million for 2
years with Toronto but he could easily ask for a $15 million a year contract at
least and my assumption is he’d want a 4-year deal.
Taking
a look at teams that have a legit shot of obtaining Cabrera you have to
consider not only the team but also the money the team can off.
Toronto Blue Jays: Obviously the
team that Cabrera has played with the last 2 years is the first team that would
try to retain his services. They’d
have the space to put him and the money to sign him. While the team’s offense is solid the team may need to
bypass on Cabrera to spend extra on pitching.
Baltimore Orioles: Another team
that has the money and could have the outfield opening spot. The team is currently talking to
outfield Nick Markakis to see if he will sign back but nothing happened yet. If they can’t resign Markakis they
could look to Cabrera to fill that void in LF that Markakis would leave. With Cabrera’s skill set and a rather
large outfield to play with Cabrera is a good fit and a bad at the same
time. Good for his contact skills
but his defensive issues will only be magnified from that same large outfield.
Detroit Tigers: With the utter
embarrassment suffered in the playoffs the team is going to look to improve
themselves in anyway possible.
With Torii Hunter potentially retiring at the end of this season the team
is going to need to find a replacement and they don’t have the pieces in the
minors. The big question is if the
team will focus on trying to create a more consistent offense or fix the team’s
terrible bullpen. The team can
afford Cabrera if he asks for what I predict but we’ll see which direction the
team takes.
Texas Rangers: Much like the Tigers
the Rangers are a team looking to make a comeback and are losing a regular
outfielder in Alex Rios. The
smaller outfield will make Cabrera’s defensive shortcomings less of an impact
and his hitting skills get a bonus.
Unlike the Tigers the team does have options and trying to figure out if
they want to spend money or try and fix internally.
Atlanta Braves: This feels like a
long shot but the team could try him out one more time. They might have the money lying around
and the team could use a consistent bat in a lineup that had major issues with
consistency for the last 3 seasons.
While they need the upgrade I question if they DO have the money to make
such a deal. With the new GM
trying to get the team back in shape he could try and make a splash but we
shall see.
Cincinnati Reds: Very similar
situation to the Braves since the need is there and they really do need
Cabrera’s skills in a very big way but the money may not be there. The team has a lot of its budget tied
up in players like Jay Bruce, Joey Votto and Johnny Cueto so they don’t have a
lot of free cap space.
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