Monday, January 12, 2015

Fighting the Good Fight: the Draft


            Last time we talked about getting you ready for the draft and now its time to talk actual strategies for the draft itself.  The draft isn’t something to be taken lightly and has broken more friendships than a game of Mario Party…that’s still a thing right?  If you go into a draft under prepared than it could mean the end of you season right off the bat.  What this article will do is point out a few good and popular strategies that you can employ during the draft and some traps to avoid as well.
Know the position: Did you read my last article and the importance of the mock draft? No?  Well this is going to be a tough issue for you isn’t it.  Half hearted mocks and plugs aside you really do need to know what players could possibly be available to you before the draft even begins.  Mock drafts allow you to draft from any position in the draft and doing so will show you which players will be available if you were to land in that position.  The players you see on the board with the second pick wont be the same as the ones you see with the forth or fifth so you need to practice to set up a basic idea on where your strategy goes from there.
Make the safest first pick: “You can’t win the league with the first pick but you can certainly lose it.”  These are very strong and smart words from fantasy experts Matthew Berry and Nate Ravitz that describe better than I could have.  That first pick needs to be consistent and a sure fire thing to make the first round and its no place to take a risk.  Now every player comes with inherit risks but you try to limit it as best as possible by picking players like Miguel Cabrera and Mike Trout and not guys like Bryce Harper and Javier Baez.  While the upside of Harper and Baez are high the risk of them not meeting expectations is far higher than Trout and Cabrera not meeting their respective potential.  This is why it’s important to pay attention to mock drafts and see whom goes where so you can plan around it.
Pick from the Head no the Heart: Everyone has a favorite baseball player and sure we all would love to have him on our team, well expect me since mine is retired.  But lets face facts that someone like Adrian Gonzalez isn’t a first round guy.  Playing with your heart means you choose players out of position just because you like them.  Sometimes this is fine if you pick them right but most of the time, at least from what I’ve seen and experienced, people tend to look at that pick later and wonder what they were thinking.
Know your league mates and exploit: This is a very underhanded and weasely tactic and that’s why I say do it!  This only works when you know there’s a special player a league mate wants or that he tends to pick players from a specific team, likely his or her favorite team.  Knowing this actually can give you an advantage in making future moves or making moves that can work for you in the future.  In some cases you can even punish a person for being to blind to fandom.  Short story time: I was in a fantasy football league with an auction draft (something I’ll be getting to in a second) and the budget was two hundred dollars.  In the first round the third pick went to a well-known Packers fan and he selected Aaron Rodgers for thirty dollars or so.  There was one person in the league that decided to make him pay for Rodgers and up bided him all the way to eighty dollars before letting him have Rodgers.  That was almost half his budget on his first player making the rest of the team very weak.  Remember that you can fall prey to this as well so be very cautious.
Set a limit (auction drafts only): Before a draft every player is given a dollar value and that lists the recommended buying price of a player.  Now it can happen but it is rare that a price for a good player ends right at that recommended total.  It’s a very good idea to consider what your willing to spend on any player in general but especially early in the draft.  If you spend high early you get many strong single players but weaker players later.  On the flip side you save on the early rounds you lose those key players that can help dominate a league but have a stronger overall team.  Setting your budget early can prevent you from, oh say, spending $80 dollars when you only have $200.
Keep track of you positions: Imagine this scenario: You’re near the end of the draft and you’re picking you sleepers and bench players.  You fill in the last bench spot and think “Well my teams all done,” but then you noticed there’s still one round left to draft.  You look at your team confused and then you see it, you forgot to draft a catcher.  Now with the last pick in your draft you have to pick from players like Nick Hundley, Tyler Flowers, Ryan Hanigan and Francisco Cervelli as your starter.  It happens and it’s defiantly something to watch for when you’re drafting your team this year.  You may get enticed by having multiple stars on your team when they fall to you, something that you should capitalize on, but it can’t come at the cost of other positions.
Resist the reach: This is the hardest thing to do in a draft.  Resisting that urge to grab a particular player before someone else gets him even though if you do your passing on players more worth said pick.  This is the hardest to avoid when you see a player coming up in the draft and it’s a position that not only you need filled but is a shallow position*.  The way to combat that feeling to reach is to remember that there are always more players after him that are just as good and just wait for them.
*Shallow position refers to any position that doesn’t have a depth and the number of good players in that position is very low.  An example would be the outfield as a surplus of speedy players but is very shallow in power hitters making them a premium position over other outfielders.
Remember the end game: The end of the draft doesn’t mean you can relax.  Look at your team and see what you could improve with a trade or two if necessary later on down the road.  Look for your best chips and come up with potential trades.  Look at the waiver wire, yes the draft just ended but you may have missed someone during the draft that you really wanted or was overlooked by everyone.  You’d be surprised how many sleeper options are left on the board.
Corner the market: What do I mean by cornering the market?  The strategy revolves around grabbing multiples players from a shallower position and rostering them.  This will make it so if people what to fill that positional void they have the owner will likely come to you first for trades since you have a spare player.  Example: say you draft Miguel Cabrera in the first round and two rounds later you draft someone like Prince Fielder.  While you already have a first baseman you know have a strong corner infield position filled with a top end player.  If you never trade either you still have Fielder and Cabrera leading your offense and if you do end up trading one you get a big haul and possibly are able to fill your positional gaps with players from that trade.  Don’t try this for multiple positions or you may end up regretting it.

            Now that the draft is over you get to start the real fun and do whatever it takes, within the rules of course since no one likes a cheater, to bring home that metaphorical title belt.  Or a real belt depending on some leagues, I’ve even heard some leagues use a trophy of a chicken for the championship trophy.  Next time we’ll take a look at some keeper strategies because that alone needs its own article to go over.

Before the Draft


            With Spring Training just around the corner its almost time for the most important time in baseball, fantasy draft day!  Yes fantasy baseball is one of many things that gets me excited me for the baseball season and one of the most intense times of the entire fantasy league is the draft.  The draft is possibly the single most important time of the year for fantasy players since this is what’s going to shape your year and give you sleepless nights thinking “if only I was able to get Kris Medlen in the 10th.”  While I plan on give my personal rankings position by position I think it’s prudent to start any fantasy article by throwing ideas and hints for those new to fantasy baseball.  These are things that I have learned in the 7 years of play and taking my many lumps making the mistakes or getting lucky and coming out on top.
Pick a league: I’m going to start by saying that many of my suggestions are things you’ll first go “no duh you moron!”  So after reading the name hear me out and let me explain what I mean.  Fantasy leagues come in all shapes and sizes and it’s very important to know what kind of league your comfortable with.  The smaller the league the more “stacked” the league is going to be and it will to have a team full of star players.  On the other hand a 12 or 14 team league is going to test your skill since players will be taken earlier and the addition to 2 to 4 teams means more players will be gone in the end of the draft changing the value of certain players.  For new players I suggest sticking to a 10-team league since it’s considered the standard sized league and it gives a good balance of challenge.
Know the stats: This is linked to picking a league since it’s the determining factor on who and how you draft.  The most basic fantasy league is a 10-team 5x5 league where the 10 stats are split evenly between batting and pitching.  Batting average, homeruns, runs, RBI’s, and stolen bases for batting and pitching’s you have ERA, WHIP, strikeouts, saves, and wins.  For new players this is the stats you should go for since they’re the easier to find and easiest to draft for.  More advanced leagues do change the stats you play for and it changes how you draft and play.  For example I play all my leagues in that same 5x5 style but I don’t use batting average I use OBP. How does this change the draft you ask?  Well for starters it makes the middle picks and end picks drastically different from what you’d see on cheat sheets, something we’ll be covering shortly, and makes the value of players change.  Adam Dunn was always a go person to look at in an OBP league since his .220 batting average always made him a liability but his .330-.340 OBP made him one of the more underrated players in the game.
Pick your team name: This is a silly yet fun part of fantasy since it’s going to become how your league is going to refer to you during the season.  Have fun with it and make something clever.  Me I like to show off my thoughts of the Astros in my team name calling myself the Depressed Astros Fan and depending on the level of confidence in my team I add a word to describe it.  Last year I was the Slightly Less Depressed Astros Fan since I liked the team more than I had previously…but in the end I’m still and Astros fan.  What?  Did you think everything on this list had to be serious?  You can stress over the season when it comes up so might as well have some fun now.
Come in with a strategy: Ok back to being serious and lets talk about getting a strategy down.  For the causal fan this isn’t going to be an issue since they’re likely to pick their favorite players early and just wing the rest of the draft.  More serious players come in with a plan on not just who but when they’re going to draft.  This comes with experience and it comes with practice.  Another thing to consider is the strength and depth of talent in any one position since that will give you an idea of who important it is to draft that position.  While no plan will survive contact with the enemy its best to know what stats your gunning for early and instead of drafting for players draft for numbers and players you are certain will get you there.
Mock Drafts are your friend: So how do players who aren’t experienced in fantasy drafts get an idea of how to draft and who to draft or just when to draft what position?  Sort answer is mock drafts and you do a lot of them.  Besides being fun, I do my fair share of them just to see how I would do and to try out other ideas; it gives you a great idea of how the draft will play out.  Mock drafts are where you put plans and strategies into motion and see how they fair against other players that have their own ideas and plans.  You’ll be surprised on how often your plans will go a stray because someone drafts out of slot, drafting a player out of the expected position, and your stuck scrambling to get your picks back in order.  Since there’s no penalty to mock drafts you can learn from mistakes and see how your plan worked.  Tweak it and start planning for those times that it went wrong.
Make a cheat sheet/pre-draft rankings: Now this is the first one that I don’t find super important since in the end of the day places like ESPN and Yahoo already set their draft board set to their rankings and your welcome to use that.  But a cheat sheet can be important for keeping an eye on players your trying to keep secret or just to help track everything that happens in the draft.  The option that I choose is to go to the editing section of the pre-draft section and make your own rankings.  While this is time consuming and can be confusing when you see a player you hate go above someone you love since you ranked them differently than ESPN did it is a good way to track the players YOU want.  This works very well when your down on players since they wont show up on your board and other players will draft them so there’s no mistakes, trust me I’ve seen it happen.  This also works well for players your high on and want to take early; this is closer to the end of the draft since this is where you’ll grab your sleepers and other players you don’t expect to get drafted.

            I think we’ve covered the basics of getting ready for your fantasy draft.  Next time we’ll discuss the actual strategies to look for and ones that are commonly employed.  As for now I’d like to hear your team names and names you’ve had in the past.  Maybe next time I’ll post them in the article: funny ones, serious ones, clever ones I like them all so lets see them in the comments!

Thursday, December 11, 2014

Off Season Outlook: Justin Masterson

Off Season Outlook: Justin Masterson
            With all the talk going to big named stars like Jon Lester and Max Scherzer its not to shocking to see pitchers like Justin Masterson slip through the cracks.  Luckily he has been getting some attention lately so him finding a team should be relativity easy for him.  Masterson had a very up and down 2014 after having his statistically second best season of his career in 2013.  It will be interesting to see which Masterson shows up for the 2015 season and which teams are willing to take the risks.
            Justin Masterson was drafted in 2006 to the Boston Red Sox with in the second round with the 27 pick in the round.  He rose quickly through the system and was named one of the team’s best prospects in 07.  It only took till late 2008 for Masterson to see some action appearing in 36 games mostly out of the pen.  It wouldn’t be until his trade to the Cleveland Indians in 2009 that he’d start to see some significant time as a starter.
            Masterson had a pretty rough 2014 and it had some ups but mostly downs.  We’ll start with the most worrying issues for Masterson: an increase in hard hit average and an increase in walks.  The hard hit rate is worrisome for more than the obvious reason you would think.  Masterson’s line drive rate has been on the rise since 2011 where he had an 18.2% taking a dip in 2013 to 17.8% and hitting a career high in 2014 of 20.3%.  Interesting enough 2011 is when Masterson started to pitch as a starter regularly and in the 2 years he was a bullpen pitcher he had a 15.1% average line drive rate.  The line drive rate has been on the raise for a few years now but the HR/FB has been rather erratic.  Using the same time frame as we did with the line drive rate, 2011-2014, he’s had a HR/FB rate of 6.3%, 11.4%, 10.7%, and 14.6%.  Averaging that out we get roughly 10.75% HR/FB rate as a starter and that puts him about average with the league average for the last 6 years.
Strenghts:
            Masterson has been a very solid strikeout pitcher throughout his career.  He owns a 19.3% career strikeout rate and averaging a K/9 of 7.53 both of which are very stable and above average.  Despite last years hiccup Masterson has had a rather stable HR/FB over his career averaging roughly 10.5% of his fly balls making it over the fence and only allowing a 0.71 career HR/9.  His velocity has been fairly consistent throughout his career only having a drop of more than 2 MPH in velocity to his fastball in 2014 and considering his age that could have been just a fluke.
Cons:
            As I’ve stated before the negative trends are alarming and numerous.  The walks are coming more often and have been on the rise since his days in Boston.  While his strikeout numbers are fine he is getting hit more often and that could be do to his control issues.  If he falls behind he starts throwing over the plate and that makes him hittable.  Last years rise in HR/FB rate is something to watch even if he’s trending down in fly ball rate.  When it comes to consistency he has no benchmark and I have little confidence.  He’s had just as many good years as bad but they’re random and don’t follow a pattern making him a giant wildcard for any staff. 
Contracts:
            It’s hard to say what he will get since we have seen his productivity in 2014 is down and many of his numbers are trending negatively.  His last contract was a 1-year deal and $9.8 million and while I don’t see him making that much it would be a starting point.  If a team were willing to take a chance on him a 2-year deal at $10 million would be a safe bet.  Now this is in my perfect little world and not what reality will have happen.  Teams that are interested will have to pay a little more to gain his services.  Masterson would want some security with any deal he makes so a 3-4 year deal wouldn’t be out of the question and as for money I can see it reaching somewhere near $15-25 million.  Maybe that is overpaying him but if a team wants him they’ll pay it.
Teams:
Baltimore Orioles: While the team has needs to fill that are more important than signing Masterson but he is an option.  He could fit will in Baltimore as well being a nice anchor for a young team and a big field could cut down on the homeruns.
Boston Red Sox: Boston seems to be trying to gather its old players back and Masterson could be a nice fit in a weakened rotation.  Boston has spent a lot of money on offense so far and they haven’t been really focused on adding arms for the staff but much like Baltimore he would help a youngish team.
New York Yankees: They need pitching and need all the pitching they can get.  Not a great fit in that stadium but that won’t stop the team trying to sign him.
Chicago White Sox: Chicago seems to be making a push to fill the void that the Royals are going to leave.  More pitching will make a big difference for the team and Masterson could get a larger contract from this team than others.  White Sox are trying to build a winner and this could make them overpay.
Cleveland Indians: Traded him away but that doesn’t mean he’d be a bad fit.  The main issue will be the teams willing to pay the big contract that will be required.
Detroit Tigers: This team will always need pitching and with Scherzer on the market and no guarantee on coming back Masterson can fill a void.  Not the void that will be left by Scherzer’s leaving but he’s better than nothing.  Team has money and considering the struggles they’ve had with pitching they will be willing to spend.
Miami Marlins: I wouldn’t have considered this until the Stanton signing and the trades they’ve been making.  It could be the team is truly ready to step up its game and make a run and a good veteran like Masterson could help.  Not an ideal situation for Masterson but if Miami pulls more money out of that hollowed out tree they have in the everglades he’ll sign.  Do you have a better idea where they’re getting this money?
New York Mets: While offense is the major issue another strong pitcher to help take pressure of Harvey and DeGrom will help.  Masterson’s weaknesses could be easier to manage in a big stadium like New York’s so it wouldn’t be a bad match.
Chicago Cubs: I’m still not counting this team out of anything and with Theo Epstein, Masterson’s old GM, at the helm it could work.  Not a good stadium for him at all but again this could be a money thing for Masterson in the end.
Milwaukee Brewers:  Much like many teams on this list pitching is the major issue they have and will need to fill it fast if they want to try and repeat what they did last year.  Well at least try to.

            So what does this really say about Justin Masterson?  Well we can see that he has talent and can be a strong option for teams looking for a good pitcher.  But his negative trends make him a risky pick up for any team looking for him.

Sunday, November 16, 2014

Off Season Outlook: Mike Carp


            With all the sexy names on the market this year there are a few that will inevitably fall through the cracks.  Mike Carp is one such player that wont get as much talk as Adam LaRoche or Mike Morse but has skills that some team could find very useful.  Carp was drafted back in 2004 by the New York Mets and was the 254th pick overall.  Carp rose through the ranks and was in AA 3 years later but was traded in 2009 to the Seattle Mariners.  It’s with the Mariners that he got his first taste of the majors where he had issues staying healthy for and extended period of time.  It wasn’t until 2013 with the Red Sox where he had his big break out year as the teams main offensive replacement and pinch hitter.  2014 however did not show a repeat of his pervious season but continued to struggle with health and ineffectiveness.  Mike Carp isn’t a sexy name and he isn’t going to be the next big star but he could be worth a look to some teams but first lets see what happened last year.
            His 2014 campaign had many issues ranging from injuries to just plain ineffectiveness, as stated before.  His .175/.289/.230 slash line was a far cry from his 2013 total slash line of .296/.362/.523 and he played in almost 30 less games in 2014 than 2013.  What caused such a decline isn’t at first apparent but looking deep into the numbers compared to his career averages gives us a good picture.  First we see a 4% decrease in line drive rate from his 2013 season and a huge increase in infield fly balls touching 15.6% when his 2013 was only at 3.8%.  Another sign comes in his groundball rate, which jumped 5% from 2013, and if we put this all together it leads to poor contact.  Right there we have a very solid lead to his struggles and considering that other important stats like walk rate and strikeout rate were actually trending positively it just adds credence to the claim.  The last clue to look at is Carp’s BABIP, Batting Average on Balls in Play, which was almost 100 points below his career average.  Since BABIP is more or less a “luck stat” it could be that Carp just had tremendous bad luck and the numbers didn’t average out since he had limited playing time.  Given the numbers he was putting up it was very understandable to see why.
Strengths
            While we’ve really focused on his 2013 to 2014 differences it should be noted that Carp has flashed the potential to do this before and there are some good signs that he is worth a look.  His career .330 OBP is a very good sign of his ability to get on base and, as stated in the pervious paragraph, his BB% and strikeout rate were both trending upwards.  Given full playing time he could improve on those skills and other areas of his game could improve.  While Carp does swing about as often as the league average he also makes more contact and that could be a plus if his BABIP improves back to league averages.  The power is there and he has shown it in the past; his career ISO of .160 is 25 points above the league average ISO in 2014 and given his ability to make contact that is a nice combination to see.
Weaknesses
            While Carp has some impressive upside we have yet to see it really manifest itself in for a full season.  Carp was relegated to bench player in 2013 and that was at his best so we don’t know exactly what he would do with full time play.  While his some of his numbers are trending positively the 24.3% career strikeout rate is something to consider and is defiantly something to worry about.  Carp is completely a mess when it comes to his career splits jumping back and forward between stats being better versus LHPs and RHPs meaning it could be hard to use him in a pinch hitting role or make it easier depending on which numbers the manager would hold more importance in.  While his defense isn’t a disaster its also not up to the best of them having a career -8.4 UZR in all positions that he plays combined but on the plus side his main position of first base is far better than when he is in the outfield.
Contract
            2014 cost Carp a major payday or at least a very solid deal but now he will have to survive on likely a one-year deal at roughly only a million dollars.  His pervious contract of 1.4 million for a year isn’t out of the question but teams are going to try and get a deal closer to a million with maybe some incentives to see if he is worth the money.  Another possibility for Carp is getting a minor league contract and hoping to clear his name of last season’s failings.  This will obviously hurt his potential earnings but if he plays better and proves himself once more could help him make more overall.
Teams

            Really looking at it there are few teams that couldn’t stand to gain something from signing Carp to a minimum contract.  He wouldn’t be a starter for any team at this point even if has the potential to be one but with some position flexibility and a record of past success teams that need a bench player or a good fill in DH should at least take a look at him.

Off Season Outlook: Mark Reynolds


            The king of the K’s has once again hit the open market and today we’re going to take a look at him and using his numbers see what kind of market he has.  Remember that Reynolds may be known for his career 31.9% strike out rate but he also has been known as one of the more well-known power threats in baseball in his career.  Balancing such a free-swinging power threat as Reynolds is going to take some work for some teams but if they can it may be worth their time and the risk.
            The Arizona Diamondbacks drafted Reynolds back in 2004 in the 16th round with the 15th pick of the round, needless to say not much was expected of him.  However Reynolds proved himself quite well in the minors and in 2007 made his MLB debt doing very well and becoming the team’s main third baseman.  His stock improved each year with improved numbers across the board; this success however also came at the cost of many strikeouts.  In fact he broke the single season strikeout record in 2008 and again in 2009, yes he broke his own record he had set the previous season.  2009 was his final season of elite play though and all his significant stats started taking a major dive until 2014.
            2014 for Reynolds was his worst season to date in some areas and on the other hand raised some interesting questions.  His slash line of .196/.287/.394 marks his lowest career batting average and on-base percentage of his career and while his lowered batting average shouldn’t be looked on as a negative, we expected that and as we know BA’s really don’t tell us much, his on-base has been trending down since 2009 and is a bad sign for him.  His overall offense suffered this year as well only having a weighted runs created plus (wRC+) of 87 which puts him at 13% below league average in runs created.  His offensive WAR also took a hit having 2 straight seasons of negative offensive WAR, this years ending at -5.0 and being his career worst.  Lastly we have the obvious strikeouts and 2014 continued the trend of over 100 strikeouts and finishing the season with 154.
Strengths
            So that last paragraph really makes signing Reynolds a bad thing but there are some numbers that actually say that he’s not only worth a signing but he could/should be a starter.  Starting with the most unbelievable stat first, his strikeouts are trending down and have been since 2011.  I know right!  In 2011 he ended the season at 196 and the next 3 seasons he ended the season with 159, 155, 122 strikeouts.  At the relatively you age of 31 this is an interesting development for him and is something that every team should note.  Reynolds actually has been a model of consistency for years now and it wasn’t till 2013-14 that his OBP really dropped below league average; in fact he has a career OBP of .324, which is ever so slightly above league average.  While not known as a strong walker he does own a career walk rate of 11.6% and it’s been consistently between 10%-13% since 2007.              Lastly there is the famous Mark Reynolds power and as I’m sure you’ve noticed I have yet to even discuss his power numbers this entire time because it is a marvel.  Reynolds has only had an ISO below .210 twice in his career, 2013 and last season, but his .198 ISO in 2014 may say that his 2013 was an off year.  Reynolds numbers are so crazy he has more career homeruns (224) than he has both doubles and triples combined (182).  The fact that his 2014 BABIP was so low, almost 70 points below his career average, leads me to believe that had he been on par he could have had one heck of a season and his ISO and OPS may have taking a hit because of bad luck.
Weaknesses
            Lets get the easy one out of the way; Reynolds is a strikeout machine and while he is lowering the totals he still strikes out a lot.  Ironically its not the swing rate that’s the issue, though a career 47.7% swing rate is an issue, it’s the terrible 64.9% contact rate and that is what will lead to many strikeouts.  Reynolds is known for his power not his glove; Reynolds has only had 2 seasons in his entire career where he’s had a positive defensive WAR and some of those negative seasons got as bad as -29.6.  He is at the end of his prime years and there are some negative trends showing up in his OBP and, as one would expect, the batting average but the declining OBP is a bigger worry than the batting average.
Contract
            Reynolds isn’t coming off a good season and that will affect the payday he could expect.  Teams will take a look but I wouldn’t expect anything more than maybe $3 million a year as the absolute most per year contract.  I’m not confident that he would even be able to make that much per year and I would guess closer to $1.2-$1.5 per year.  Looking at the numbers and some of the difficulties he had last season but also seeing the potential signing to a 1-year $2 million contract would be a nice deal for the team, if the numbers do end up averaging out that is.
Teams
Tampa Bay Rays- This seems like a long shot but the team could use a strong DH option and the team has always struggled to have consistent power.  While we still need to see the affect on the team losing both their GM and manager within a few weeks of each other the team has to move forward and do what it can.  Reynolds would be a major downgrade in defense so he would be a DH only for the Rays.
Toronto Blue Jays- The Jays are a team that has had solid offense production but has had its fair share of injuries.  Reynolds could be a nice fill in player for them if a player like Brett Lawrie gets hurt as he normally does.  More likely another DH fill in for the team but since the team could use him in other positions it makes him a nice cheap option.
Chicago White Sox- With Paul Konerko retiring the team is going to need a new DH and Reynolds could fit well.  The team isn’t ready to compete just yet but at the same time they don’t have anything to really fill in for Konerko so Reynolds does fit the numbers they need.  Much like the Blue Jays he could be a nice back up plan just in case Abreu has injury issues.
Kansas City Royals- If the team can’t sign back Billy Butler than they’re going to need someone to fill the DH slot.  Reynolds may not be the best fit for a team trying to duplicate its 2014 like the Royals will be but he is an option.  Look for the team to kick the tires at least and see if a deal could be made.
Oakland Athletics- A team looking for in constant need to find a new power hitter and Reynolds could help.  The A’s actually can have a few uses for him as well not just as a platoon DH with Steven Vogt but also as a platoon option with Brandon Moss at first.  Not a bad fit for Reynolds and the A’s can use him in multiple ways; I would defiantly consider this one of his best landing spots.
Philadelphia Phillies- Ryan Howard is terrible and a platoon with Reynolds could see some good return.  Yes Reynolds would be a liability to the team’s defense but Howard’s numbers last year hid one of the worst seasons by a starting first baseman and they’d need to upgrade at some point and Reynolds would be a good stop gap.
Milwaukee Brewers- Even though the Brewers went out and grabbed Adam Lind, who will likely take up the bulk of first base duties, the team could use Reynolds for one rather large reason.  Lind can’t hit lefties what so ever and Reynolds can, this could be a dream platoon for the team since having two strong offensive options that they can fill in depending on who they face.  The team has experimented with this last year and found great success so why not do it again?


Off Season Team Outlook: St. Louis Cardinals


Contracts
Guaranteed Contracts:
·       Adam Wainwright, SP: $78MM through 2018
·       Matt Carpenter, 3B: $49.5MM through 2019
·       Yadier Molina, C: $45MM through 2017
·       Jhonny Peralta, SS: $37.5MM through 2017
·       Matt Holliday, OF: $35MM through 2016
·       Jaime Garcia, SP: $9.75MM through 2015
·       Aledmys Diaz, SS: $5.5MM through 2017
·       Randy Choate, RP: $3MM through 2015
·       John Lackey, SP: $500K through 2015

Arbitration Eligible:
·       Jon Jay, OF (4.134): $4.5MM
·       Peter Bourjos, OF (4.062): $1.6MM
·       Daniel Descalso, INF (4.016): $1.4MM
·       Lance Lynn, SP (3.119): $5.5MM
·       Tony Cruz, C (3.105): $0.7MM
·       Shane Robinson (2.141), OF: $0.5MM

Free Agents:
·      Justin Masterson
·      A.J. Pierzynski
·      Jason Motte
·      Mark Ellis
·      Pat Neshek

            The Cardinals have been one of the more consistent teams in the majors in the last 10 years and 2014 had the team once again making the playoffs.  The team however had its fair shares of issues during the season and struggled to have consistent pitching up and down the rotation and suffered from a lack of power.  The real question for the team is how they want to go about getting the new talent and fixing a team that has started to get a little on the old side.
Offense
            It’s been a few years since the team was considered the major powerhouse team where opponents had to deal with a major threat 1-8.  Though the team still has its threats it’s gone from Pujols, Edmonds and Walker to Holliday, Adams and Molina.  Needless to say it’s a bit of a drop off in talent and the Cards have had their fair share of struggles in 2014.  The team finished 11th overall in the majors in offensive WAR sitting just behind the Kansas City Royals.  The team was above the mid point of the majors but only by a little having only 4 points of WAR separate themselves from the New York Mets who finished 2014 with the 15th best offensive WAR
            The real struggles for the team came in the power department having the 3rd worst ISO in all of baseball; in fact they were 1 point above the Padres and 3 above the Royals.  Now ISO isn’t just homeruns it accounts for all extra base hits the team gets and the lower the total the lower amount of XBH that team was generating so you can see why the Cardinals would look at this with some concern.  While the Royals are proving that it doest take power to win, and for that matter the Cardinals themselves can be looked at for this same reason, having a lower XBH totals tends to make the team more streaky than you’d like to see in a playoff team.  The more consistent the bats the better the team.  This brings us back to the question of why the low XBH totals?  Well that leads into another issue this team is going to have to address, the lack of good base runners.
            BsR is a stat that combines the team’s wSB or weighted Stolen Bases, a stat to give the difference between stolen bases and the times caught stealing, and UBR or Ultimate Base Running, a stat that the website Fangraphs created to “value a player adds to the team via base running (you can look that up here UBR).  The Cardinals have the leagues worst BsR of -10.5 meaning not only that the team wasn’t hitting for power but also not running the bases effectively.
            I’ve fired a lot of shots at the team so far and I do so for 1 reason.  To show what areas the team needs to improve on and when it comes to the team’s offense it’s easily the power production and getting some more effective base runners.  Luckily the team only has 1 real weak area that needs to be filled by a player, all that they really need is an upgrade to right field.  With the tragic passing of Oscar Taveras the team has been left in a tough situation.  To make room for him the team traded Allen Craig at the deadline and with his passing the team is left trying to figure out how they want to proceed; do they go to the system or sign a free agent?  Well let’s take a look at both options that the team has and give the pros and cons to both options.
System
            According to Baseball America: Prospect Handbook the team had the 8th best system heading into the 2014 season but much of that was tied into the talent of Taveras.  The team does have players that can play right field but aren’t near the skill that Taveras had.  First we have Scott Piscotty, a right fielders drafted back in 2012 as a supplemental pick for Albert Pujols, and was rated by Baseball America as the 4th best prospect in the system.  His 2014 campaign actually was very successful having a slash line of .288/.355/.406 with 9 homeruns and 69 RBI’s in 136 at-bats.  His power was down significantly from his previous seasons hitting 6 less homers and having an ISO drop from .147 in 2013 to .118 in 2014.  Piscotty has the systems best outfield arm according to Baseball America and has improved his range and defensive skills in right field.  Piscotty represents the best option for the team as it pertains to the system; he is the most refined and overall talented player in the system at the moment.
Free Agency
Alex Rios- Rios represents the best player in the pool that plays right field but Rios does have some downsides that make him a risky signing though.  He’s going to be 34 and on the downside of his career before the season begins and he’s coming off a down season as well making it likely that he isn’t going to improve.  Rios had a .280/.311/.398 slash line in 2014, totals put him below his career average, represents his worst slash line since 2011.
Norichika Aoki- Aoki had another fine season for the Royals in 2014 ending the season with a .286/.349/.360 slash line with a very impressive 8.9% strikeout rate.  As with Rios Aoki comes with downsides as well: he had a BsR of -10 and his wSB was only -0.3 meaning he’s not the fastest or best runner and since that’s 2 areas the team is trying to improve that’s not a good thing.  His defense was ok last year having a defensive WAR of 2.2 and his power is nonexistent having an ISO of .094.  Aoki will be 33 when the 2015 season begins.
Nolan Reimold- An interesting option compared to the previous two players but one that has its risks nonetheless.  Reimold had limited time last year for the Orioles and the Diamondbacks due to injuries and ineffective play.  He played in 29 games and had a total of 78 plate appearances and ended the season with a slash line of .232/.282/.435.  That slugging is the main reason anyone will consider him and his .203 ISO in only 78 plate appearances is going to get a lot of attention.  Reimold also had a BsR of 0.2, not terrible but not great either but for a team trying to improve at least he’s not as bad as Aoki was.  Reimold’s biggest downside is the strikeout rate; in 2014 Reimold struck out 41% of his at-bats which was way higher than his average and not likely to be repeated.
Pitching
            The Cardinals were one of the more mediocre pitching staffs this year and fixing this could go along way to a repeat playoff birth.  The teams pitching ranked 18th overall in WAR in 2014 with a 13.3, which was the worst out of all teams that made the playoffs.  The starting rotation ended the season with a team ERA of 3.44 (5th) and a FIP of 3.67 (10th) and was a major strength for the team down the stretch.  As for the bullpen the team did not fair nearly as well ending in the bottom 15 of the league in both ERA and FIP and was the major weak point for the team.
            Most MLB teams are taking notice that the bullpen is quickly becoming one of the more important areas to have staffed and going into the 2014 season St. Louis had thought it had a strong one.  But struggles to incumbent closer Trevor Rosenthal and many others lead to the teams 3.62 ERA and equally as bad 3.61 FIP.  Remember relief pitchers pitch less innings than starters so a 3.62 for a bullpen is not the same as a 3.62 for the rotation, its more equivalent to a 4.00 ERA for the rotation.  The team under preformed in other areas: K/9 (21st), HR/9 (17th), HR/FB% (17th) and a WAR of 2.3 gave them the 18th best bullpen.  There is some good news the team had one of best bullpen WHIP’s of 1.22 so that does mean there’s hope.
            With the rotation pretty firmly settled on Adam Wainwright, Shelby Miller, John Lackey, Lance Lynn and Michael Wacha or Jaime Garcia next season there doesn’t seem to be much room for an addition so the team is going to be able to focus on the bullpen.  The team has many pitchers in the minors that could help them but the question is do they want to.  They have shown a willingness to let pitchers come out of the pen even if they seen them as starters in the future but many are young and they don’t want too use to many in that role for too long.  That means the best option is the free agent market.
Free Agents
Matt Albers: While Albers didn’t have what you would call an amazing season in Houston…well ok he pitched 8 games then was done for the year.  But reports show he is healthy at this point and could be of use to a lot of teams and St. Louis is one of them.  Albers has a career 6.30 K/9 rate and a 3.98 BB/9, neither is amazing and in fact the BB/9 would terrifying if it weren’t for the fact it’s trending down.  He’s been steadily lowering his BB/9 since 2009 when he pitched for the Orioles.  A ground ball pitcher by nature he could fit right into a field that is pitcher friendly and with a strong infield defense like St. Louis has.
Mike Adams: Another pitcher who’s 2014 was cut short do to injuries but is still effective.  In 18 innings of work he tallied a 10.13 K/9 and a 3.86 BB/9, the strikeouts more than making up for the walks in that case.  While he is again more prone to ground balls he is also getting up there in years.  At 36 he’s already seen his fastball velocity drop from 92.7 in 2011 to 90.2 in 2014 and last year only touching 89.8 and that could be a warning flag.
Sean Burnett: A solid LHP that fell into injury issues the last 2 seasons but can be an effective pitcher when healthy.  A career 6.72 K/9 and 3.55 BB/9 are decent enough for a lefty specialist but a solid 3.53 ERA is a nice bonus.  As stated Burnett has had some health issues in the last few years and that has to be a factor when considering him.
Andrew Miller: Rumors are already buzzing that the team is pretty interested in this once number one prospect turned relief pitcher and its defiantly a smart choice.  After reinventing himself as a relief pitcher Miller has been able to shut down offensives very regularly and has been able to lower his ERA each of the last 3 years, all as a relief pitcher.  He’s young and all the numbers are trending positively for this guy and its not wonder that many teams are eyeing him and are willing to shell out some more money than a relief pitcher normally demands.

Pat Neshek and Jason Motte: Just resigning them would be a strong start to getting this bullpen under control.  Neshek had the teams best ERA last year and Motte, when healthy, could easily step into a closer role should Rosenthal’s struggles continue.