With
all the sexy names on the market this year there are a few that will inevitably
fall through the cracks. Mike Carp
is one such player that wont get as much talk as Adam LaRoche or Mike Morse but
has skills that some team could find very useful. Carp was drafted back in 2004 by the New York Mets and was
the 254th pick overall.
Carp rose through the ranks and was in AA 3 years later but was traded
in 2009 to the Seattle Mariners.
It’s with the Mariners that he got his first taste of the majors where
he had issues staying healthy for and extended period of time. It wasn’t until 2013 with the Red Sox
where he had his big break out year as the teams main offensive replacement and
pinch hitter. 2014 however did not
show a repeat of his pervious season but continued to struggle with health and
ineffectiveness. Mike Carp isn’t a
sexy name and he isn’t going to be the next big star but he could be worth a
look to some teams but first lets see what happened last year.
His
2014 campaign had many issues ranging from injuries to just plain
ineffectiveness, as stated before.
His .175/.289/.230 slash line was a far cry from his 2013 total slash
line of .296/.362/.523 and he played in almost 30 less games in 2014 than
2013. What caused such a decline
isn’t at first apparent but looking deep into the numbers compared to his
career averages gives us a good picture.
First we see a 4% decrease in line drive rate from his 2013 season and a
huge increase in infield fly balls touching 15.6% when his 2013 was only at
3.8%. Another sign comes in his
groundball rate, which jumped 5% from 2013, and if we put this all together it
leads to poor contact. Right there
we have a very solid lead to his struggles and considering that other important
stats like walk rate and strikeout rate were actually trending positively it
just adds credence to the claim.
The last clue to look at is Carp’s BABIP, Batting Average on Balls in
Play, which was almost 100 points below his career average. Since BABIP is more or less a “luck
stat” it could be that Carp just had tremendous bad luck and the numbers didn’t
average out since he had limited playing time. Given the numbers he was putting up it was very
understandable to see why.
Strengths
While
we’ve really focused on his 2013 to 2014 differences it should be noted that
Carp has flashed the potential to do this before and there are some good signs
that he is worth a look. His
career .330 OBP is a very good sign of his ability to get on base and, as
stated in the pervious paragraph, his BB% and strikeout rate were both trending
upwards. Given full playing time
he could improve on those skills and other areas of his game could
improve. While Carp does swing
about as often as the league average he also makes more contact and that could
be a plus if his BABIP improves back to league averages. The power is there and he has shown it
in the past; his career ISO of .160 is 25 points above the league average ISO
in 2014 and given his ability to make contact that is a nice combination to
see.
Weaknesses
While
Carp has some impressive upside we have yet to see it really manifest itself in
for a full season. Carp was
relegated to bench player in 2013 and that was at his best so we don’t know
exactly what he would do with full time play. While his some of his numbers are trending positively the
24.3% career strikeout rate is something to consider and is defiantly something
to worry about. Carp is completely
a mess when it comes to his career splits jumping back and forward between
stats being better versus LHPs and RHPs meaning it could be hard to use him in
a pinch hitting role or make it easier depending on which numbers the manager
would hold more importance in.
While his defense isn’t a disaster its also not up to the best of them
having a career -8.4 UZR in all positions that he plays combined but on the
plus side his main position of first base is far better than when he is in the
outfield.
Contract
2014
cost Carp a major payday or at least a very solid deal but now he will have to
survive on likely a one-year deal at roughly only a million dollars. His pervious contract of 1.4 million
for a year isn’t out of the question but teams are going to try and get a deal
closer to a million with maybe some incentives to see if he is worth the money. Another possibility for Carp is getting
a minor league contract and hoping to clear his name of last season’s
failings. This will obviously hurt
his potential earnings but if he plays better and proves himself once more
could help him make more overall.
Teams
Really
looking at it there are few teams that couldn’t stand to gain something from
signing Carp to a minimum contract.
He wouldn’t be a starter for any team at this point even if has the
potential to be one but with some position flexibility and a record of past
success teams that need a bench player or a good fill in DH should at least
take a look at him.
No comments:
Post a Comment