The
king of the K’s has once again hit the open market and today we’re going to
take a look at him and using his numbers see what kind of market he has. Remember that Reynolds may be known for
his career 31.9% strike out rate but he also has been known as one of the more
well-known power threats in baseball in his career. Balancing such a free-swinging power threat as Reynolds is
going to take some work for some teams but if they can it may be worth their
time and the risk.
The
Arizona Diamondbacks drafted Reynolds back in 2004 in the 16th round
with the 15th pick of the round, needless to say not much was
expected of him. However Reynolds
proved himself quite well in the minors and in 2007 made his MLB debt doing
very well and becoming the team’s main third baseman. His stock improved each year with improved numbers across
the board; this success however also came at the cost of many strikeouts. In fact he broke the single season
strikeout record in 2008 and again in 2009, yes he broke his own record he had
set the previous season. 2009 was
his final season of elite play though and all his significant stats started
taking a major dive until 2014.
2014
for Reynolds was his worst season to date in some areas and on the other hand
raised some interesting questions.
His slash line of .196/.287/.394 marks his lowest career batting average
and on-base percentage of his career and while his lowered batting average
shouldn’t be looked on as a negative, we expected that and as we know BA’s
really don’t tell us much, his on-base has been trending down since 2009 and is
a bad sign for him. His overall
offense suffered this year as well only having a weighted runs created plus
(wRC+) of 87 which puts him at 13% below league average in runs created. His offensive WAR also took a hit
having 2 straight seasons of negative offensive WAR, this years ending at -5.0
and being his career worst. Lastly
we have the obvious strikeouts and 2014 continued the trend of over 100
strikeouts and finishing the season with 154.
Strengths
So
that last paragraph really makes signing Reynolds a bad thing but there are
some numbers that actually say that he’s not only worth a signing but he
could/should be a starter.
Starting with the most unbelievable stat first, his strikeouts are
trending down and have been since 2011.
I know right! In 2011 he
ended the season at 196 and the next 3 seasons he ended the season with 159,
155, 122 strikeouts. At the
relatively you age of 31 this is an interesting development for him and is
something that every team should note.
Reynolds actually has been a model of consistency for years now and it
wasn’t till 2013-14 that his OBP really dropped below league average; in fact
he has a career OBP of .324, which is ever so slightly above league
average. While not known as a
strong walker he does own a career walk rate of 11.6% and it’s been
consistently between 10%-13% since 2007.
Lastly
there is the famous Mark Reynolds power and as I’m sure you’ve noticed I have
yet to even discuss his power numbers this entire time because it is a
marvel. Reynolds has only had an
ISO below .210 twice in his career, 2013 and last season, but his .198 ISO in
2014 may say that his 2013 was an off year. Reynolds numbers are so crazy he has more career homeruns
(224) than he has both doubles and triples combined (182). The fact that his 2014 BABIP was so
low, almost 70 points below his career average, leads me to believe that had he
been on par he could have had one heck of a season and his ISO and OPS may have
taking a hit because of bad luck.
Weaknesses
Lets
get the easy one out of the way; Reynolds is a strikeout machine and while he
is lowering the totals he still strikes out a lot. Ironically its not the swing rate that’s the issue, though a
career 47.7% swing rate is an issue, it’s the terrible 64.9% contact rate and
that is what will lead to many strikeouts. Reynolds is known for his power not his glove; Reynolds has
only had 2 seasons in his entire career where he’s had a positive defensive WAR
and some of those negative seasons got as bad as -29.6. He is at the end of his prime years and
there are some negative trends showing up in his OBP and, as one would expect,
the batting average but the declining OBP is a bigger worry than the batting
average.
Contract
Reynolds
isn’t coming off a good season and that will affect the payday he could
expect. Teams will take a look but
I wouldn’t expect anything more than maybe $3 million a year as the absolute
most per year contract. I’m not
confident that he would even be able to make that much per year and I would
guess closer to $1.2-$1.5 per year.
Looking at the numbers and some of the difficulties he had last season
but also seeing the potential signing to a 1-year $2 million contract would be
a nice deal for the team, if the numbers do end up averaging out that is.
Teams
Tampa Bay Rays- This seems like a long shot but the team could use
a strong DH option and the team has always struggled to have consistent
power. While we still need to see
the affect on the team losing both their GM and manager within a few weeks of
each other the team has to move forward and do what it can. Reynolds would be a major downgrade in
defense so he would be a DH only for the Rays.
Toronto Blue Jays- The Jays are a team that has had solid offense
production but has had its fair share of injuries. Reynolds could be a nice fill in player for them if a player
like Brett Lawrie gets hurt as he normally does. More likely another DH fill in for the team but since the
team could use him in other positions it makes him a nice cheap option.
Chicago White Sox- With Paul Konerko retiring the team is going to
need a new DH and Reynolds could fit well. The team isn’t ready to compete just yet but at the same
time they don’t have anything to really fill in for Konerko so Reynolds does fit
the numbers they need. Much like
the Blue Jays he could be a nice back up plan just in case Abreu has injury
issues.
Kansas City Royals- If the team can’t sign back Billy Butler than
they’re going to need someone to fill the DH slot. Reynolds may not be the best fit for a team trying to
duplicate its 2014 like the Royals will be but he is an option. Look for the team to kick the tires at
least and see if a deal could be made.
Oakland Athletics- A team looking for in constant need to find a
new power hitter and Reynolds could help.
The A’s actually can have a few uses for him as well not just as a
platoon DH with Steven Vogt but also as a platoon option with Brandon Moss at
first. Not a bad fit for Reynolds
and the A’s can use him in multiple ways; I would defiantly consider this one
of his best landing spots.
Philadelphia Phillies- Ryan Howard is terrible and a platoon with
Reynolds could see some good return.
Yes Reynolds would be a liability to the team’s defense but Howard’s
numbers last year hid one of the worst seasons by a starting first baseman and
they’d need to upgrade at some point and Reynolds would be a good stop gap.
Milwaukee Brewers- Even though the Brewers went out and grabbed
Adam Lind, who will likely take up the bulk of first base duties, the team
could use Reynolds for one rather large reason. Lind can’t hit lefties what so ever and Reynolds can, this
could be a dream platoon for the team since having two strong offensive options
that they can fill in depending on who they face. The team has experimented with this last year and found
great success so why not do it again?
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