Off Season Team Outlook: St. Louis Cardinals

Contracts

Guaranteed Contracts:

·       Adam Wainwright, SP: $78MM through 2018

·       Matt Carpenter, 3B: $49.5MM through 2019

·       Yadier Molina, C: $45MM through 2017

·       Jhonny Peralta, SS: $37.5MM through 2017

·       Matt Holliday, OF: $35MM through 2016

·       Jaime Garcia, SP: $9.75MM through 2015

·       Aledmys Diaz, SS: $5.5MM through 2017

·       Randy Choate, RP: $3MM through 2015

·       John Lackey, SP: $500K through 2015

Arbitration Eligible:

·       Jon Jay, OF (4.134): $4.5MM

·       Peter Bourjos, OF (4.062): $1.6MM

·       Daniel Descalso, INF (4.016): $1.4MM

·       Lance Lynn, SP (3.119): $5.5MM

·       Tony Cruz, C (3.105): $0.7MM

·       Shane Robinson (2.141), OF: $0.5MM

Free Agents:

·      Justin Masterson

·      A.J. Pierzynski

·      Jason Motte

·      Mark Ellis

·      Pat Neshek

            The Cardinals have been one of the more consistent teams in the majors in the last 10 years and 2014 had the team once again making the playoffs.  The team however had its fair shares of issues during the season and struggled to have consistent pitching up and down the rotation and suffered from a lack of power.  The real question for the team is how they want to go about getting the new talent and fixing a team that has started to get a little on the old side.

Offense

            It’s been a few years since the team was considered the major powerhouse team where opponents had to deal with a major threat 1-8.  Though the team still has its threats it’s gone from Pujols, Edmonds and Walker to Holliday, Adams and Molina.  Needless to say it’s a bit of a drop off in talent and the Cards have had their fair share of struggles in 2014.  The team finished 11^th overall in the majors in offensive WAR sitting just behind the Kansas City Royals.  The team was above the mid point of the majors but only by a little having only 4 points of WAR separate themselves from the New York Mets who finished 2014 with the 15^th best offensive WAR

            The real struggles for the team came in the power department having the 3^rd worst ISO in all of baseball; in fact they were 1 point above the Padres and 3 above the Royals.  Now ISO isn’t just homeruns it accounts for all extra base hits the team gets and the lower the total the lower amount of XBH that team was generating so you can see why the Cardinals would look at this with some concern.  While the Royals are proving that it doest take power to win, and for that matter the Cardinals themselves can be looked at for this same reason, having a lower XBH totals tends to make the team more streaky than you’d like to see in a playoff team.  The more consistent the bats the better the team.  This brings us back to the question of why the low XBH totals?  Well that leads into another issue this team is going to have to address, the lack of good base runners.

            BsR is a stat that combines the team’s wSB or weighted Stolen Bases, a stat to give the difference between stolen bases and the times caught stealing, and UBR or Ultimate Base Running, a stat that the website Fangraphs created to “value a player adds to the team via base running (you can look that up here UBR).  The Cardinals have the leagues worst BsR of -10.5 meaning not only that the team wasn’t hitting for power but also not running the bases effectively.

            I’ve fired a lot of shots at the team so far and I do so for 1 reason.  To show what areas the team needs to improve on and when it comes to the team’s offense it’s easily the power production and getting some more effective base runners.  Luckily the team only has 1 real weak area that needs to be filled by a player, all that they really need is an upgrade to right field.  With the tragic passing of Oscar Taveras the team has been left in a tough situation.  To make room for him the team traded Allen Craig at the deadline and with his passing the team is left trying to figure out how they want to proceed; do they go to the system or sign a free agent?  Well let’s take a look at both options that the team has and give the pros and cons to both options.

System

            According to Baseball America: Prospect Handbook the team had the 8^th best system heading into the 2014 season but much of that was tied into the talent of Taveras.  The team does have players that can play right field but aren’t near the skill that Taveras had.  First we have Scott Piscotty, a right fielders drafted back in 2012 as a supplemental pick for Albert Pujols, and was rated by Baseball America as the 4^th best prospect in the system.  His 2014 campaign actually was very successful having a slash line of .288/.355/.406 with 9 homeruns and 69 RBI’s in 136 at-bats.  His power was down significantly from his previous seasons hitting 6 less homers and having an ISO drop from .147 in 2013 to .118 in 2014.  Piscotty has the systems best outfield arm according to Baseball America and has improved his range and defensive skills in right field.  Piscotty represents the best option for the team as it pertains to the system; he is the most refined and overall talented player in the system at the moment.

Free Agency

Alex Rios- Rios represents the best player in the pool that plays right field but Rios does have some downsides that make him a risky signing though.  He’s going to be 34 and on the downside of his career before the season begins and he’s coming off a down season as well making it likely that he isn’t going to improve.  Rios had a .280/.311/.398 slash line in 2014, totals put him below his career average, represents his worst slash line since 2011.

Norichika Aoki- Aoki had another fine season for the Royals in 2014 ending the season with a .286/.349/.360 slash line with a very impressive 8.9% strikeout rate.  As with Rios Aoki comes with downsides as well: he had a BsR of -10 and his wSB was only -0.3 meaning he’s not the fastest or best runner and since that’s 2 areas the team is trying to improve that’s not a good thing.  His defense was ok last year having a defensive WAR of 2.2 and his power is nonexistent having an ISO of .094.  Aoki will be 33 when the 2015 season begins.

Nolan Reimold- An interesting option compared to the previous two players but one that has its risks nonetheless.  Reimold had limited time last year for the Orioles and the Diamondbacks due to injuries and ineffective play.  He played in 29 games and had a total of 78 plate appearances and ended the season with a slash line of .232/.282/.435.  That slugging is the main reason anyone will consider him and his .203 ISO in only 78 plate appearances is going to get a lot of attention.  Reimold also had a BsR of 0.2, not terrible but not great either but for a team trying to improve at least he’s not as bad as Aoki was.  Reimold’s biggest downside is the strikeout rate; in 2014 Reimold struck out 41% of his at-bats which was way higher than his average and not likely to be repeated.

Pitching

            The Cardinals were one of the more mediocre pitching staffs this year and fixing this could go along way to a repeat playoff birth.  The teams pitching ranked 18^th overall in WAR in 2014 with a 13.3, which was the worst out of all teams that made the playoffs.  The starting rotation ended the season with a team ERA of 3.44 (5^th) and a FIP of 3.67 (10^th) and was a major strength for the team down the stretch.  As for the bullpen the team did not fair nearly as well ending in the bottom 15 of the league in both ERA and FIP and was the major weak point for the team.

            Most MLB teams are taking notice that the bullpen is quickly becoming one of the more important areas to have staffed and going into the 2014 season St. Louis had thought it had a strong one.  But struggles to incumbent closer Trevor Rosenthal and many others lead to the teams 3.62 ERA and equally as bad 3.61 FIP.  Remember relief pitchers pitch less innings than starters so a 3.62 for a bullpen is not the same as a 3.62 for the rotation, its more equivalent to a 4.00 ERA for the rotation.  The team under preformed in other areas: K/9 (21^st), HR/9 (17^th), HR/FB% (17^th) and a WAR of 2.3 gave them the 18^th best bullpen.  There is some good news the team had one of best bullpen WHIP’s of 1.22 so that does mean there’s hope.

            With the rotation pretty firmly settled on Adam Wainwright, Shelby Miller, John Lackey, Lance Lynn and Michael Wacha or Jaime Garcia next season there doesn’t seem to be much room for an addition so the team is going to be able to focus on the bullpen.  The team has many pitchers in the minors that could help them but the question is do they want to.  They have shown a willingness to let pitchers come out of the pen even if they seen them as starters in the future but many are young and they don’t want too use to many in that role for too long.  That means the best option is the free agent market.

Free Agents

Matt Albers: While Albers didn’t have what you would call an amazing season in Houston…well ok he pitched 8 games then was done for the year.  But reports show he is healthy at this point and could be of use to a lot of teams and St. Louis is one of them.  Albers has a career 6.30 K/9 rate and a 3.98 BB/9, neither is amazing and in fact the BB/9 would terrifying if it weren’t for the fact it’s trending down.  He’s been steadily lowering his BB/9 since 2009 when he pitched for the Orioles.  A ground ball pitcher by nature he could fit right into a field that is pitcher friendly and with a strong infield defense like St. Louis has.

Mike Adams: Another pitcher who’s 2014 was cut short do to injuries but is still effective.  In 18 innings of work he tallied a 10.13 K/9 and a 3.86 BB/9, the strikeouts more than making up for the walks in that case.  While he is again more prone to ground balls he is also getting up there in years.  At 36 he’s already seen his fastball velocity drop from 92.7 in 2011 to 90.2 in 2014 and last year only touching 89.8 and that could be a warning flag.

Sean Burnett: A solid LHP that fell into injury issues the last 2 seasons but can be an effective pitcher when healthy.  A career 6.72 K/9 and 3.55 BB/9 are decent enough for a lefty specialist but a solid 3.53 ERA is a nice bonus.  As stated Burnett has had some health issues in the last few years and that has to be a factor when considering him.

Andrew Miller: Rumors are already buzzing that the team is pretty interested in this once number one prospect turned relief pitcher and its defiantly a smart choice.  After reinventing himself as a relief pitcher Miller has been able to shut down offensives very regularly and has been able to lower his ERA each of the last 3 years, all as a relief pitcher.  He’s young and all the numbers are trending positively for this guy and its not wonder that many teams are eyeing him and are willing to shell out some more money than a relief pitcher normally demands.

Pat Neshek and Jason Motte: Just resigning them would be a strong start to getting this bullpen under control.  Neshek had the teams best ERA last year and Motte, when healthy, could easily step into a closer role should Rosenthal’s struggles continue.