In
the past Alex Rios was one of the more frustrating players in baseball. When he was a prospect he was considered
a 5-tool player and he did prove this to be true, just never in the same
season. While he did always flash
the glory that he could be he never really lived up to that .300 hitter while
being a 30/30 player that we thought he could be. As his career has gone on he has gotten far more consistent
with what he can do and has become a very solid player in the game even if he
still doesn’t steal bases.
|
BB%
|
K%
|
AVG
|
OBP
|
SLG
|
OPS
|
ISO
|
BABIP
|
wOBA
|
wRC+
|
WAR
|
2014
|
5.0%
|
17.1%
|
.280
|
.311
|
.398
|
.709
|
.118
|
.335
|
.309
|
92
|
0.2
|
2013
|
6.2%
|
16.3%
|
.278
|
.324
|
.432
|
.756
|
.154
|
.311
|
.330
|
104
|
3.1
|
Career
|
5.9%
|
16.1%
|
.278
|
.323
|
.439
|
.762
|
.161
|
.311
|
.330
|
100
|
26.7
|
Looking
at his numbers the last few years he has regressed a bit since 2012 where Rios
has his best season of his career.
This is expected since at age 33 he has already passed his prime and is
already out of the “golden years” for hitters. Even with this down year he did at least but up passable
numbers and was able to hit the ball about the same he has normally done throughout
his career. The one thing that is
noticeable is the rise in his swing rate, which took a 2% increase from last
year, but this could just be an anomaly for him since it still fits into his
career percentages. The worrying
thing about Rios is the numbers look very sad considering he was batting in
hitter friendly Arlington Park most of the season and he still regressed quite
a bit. The jury is still out if
this is a sign of major regression or just a bad year.
Pros:
Rios
has proven to be a very consistent hitter the last few years. In the last 5 seasons Rios has failed
to bat over .275 once and that was a terrible season for him back in 2011. After that season though he has been
the very model of consistent being able to hit for a moderate amount of power
and get on base regularly. Rios
isn’t immune to the strikeout but at the same time he doesn’t get struck out as
often as most players now and days so it balances out that low walk rate. As a fielder Rios is just average but
still very usable.
Cons:
As
we discussed at the top of this article Rios was a little up and down in the
beginning and seeing the numbers from last year we have to assume he may be in
the trend again. It’s easy to
throw his 2014 season struggles out since it was just one season but at 33 (34
at the beginning of the 2015 season) those downward trends could start becoming
an issue quickly. Rios isn’t a
walker, never has been and likely never will be, which could lead to some to an
inconsistent OBP later in his career.
In fact we can see that trend already starting having his OBP drop 10
points each of the last 2 seasons and if that’s not a trend to worry you then
here’s another to worry you. His
ISO is in the same trend as his OBP but worse dropping 50 points each of the
last 2 seasons, remember that ISO isn’t the homerun stat it’s his overall power
numbers so that means doubles are down as well. Overall Rios seems to be losing the all-important battle of
age and we’re seeing the outcome.
Contract:
Toronto
had a very odd period of time where they gave huge contracts to players they
thought would be their future. In
today’s climate that’s actually the trend, lock up the young guns and seal them
up, but back then it wasn’t the norm and even by today’s standards Rios’
contract would never happen. Rios
had a 7-year $69.8 million contract with a 1-year team option for the 2015
season, which the Rangers have just declined, and we can assume no one is crazy
enough (or at least likes his job enough to keep it) to sign him to a similar
contract so we have to take a guess.
Coming
off the 2014 season Rios’ stock is low and won’t get a super amount of
suitors. He will get a few, as
we’ll discuss later, but at his advanced age there isn’t really a market for
him. Using his WAR as a starting
point we can look and see what players around him could be a good comparison
and to be fair he’s in a group of underachievers like Baltimore’s Chris Davis,
Shin-Soo Choo, Eric Hosmer, and Jean Segura. But there is one name that does make a good comparison for
Rios and that is Miami Marlins outfielder Garrett Jones who signed a 2 year
$7.8 million deal last offseason.
Looking at Rios’ numbers a 2-year deal, with maybe a team option for a 3rd,
would be appropriate and making it say $10-13 million a year would be more than
fair. In fact if the team was
trying to save a buck or 2 they can make it a incentive lased deal where Rios
can earn his money after his struggles.
Teams:
Detroit Tigers: With Torii Hunter
on the market and likely retiring the team will be looking to not only add a
bat but a consistent one. Rios could easily fit that requirement and this could
be his best option for a bigger payday.
Detroit is desperate to get an offense that can consistently hit all
year round and Rios has been pretty consistent in the last few years. The downside is of course the power
numbers will continue to decline in that spacious field.
Texas Rangers: Yes they just
declined his $14 million option but that’s probably cause they think they can
sign him for less. Rios would be
in the drivers seat on this one since the Rangers don’t have a lot of options
to really fall back on. While Rios
didn’t fair so well in his first full season there he did just fine in the half
season he had in 2013.
Atlanta Braves: This one comes with
an asterisk right on the bat since this could happen only if the rumor that the
Braves are potentially trading Jason Heyward to the Boston Red Sox is
true. If that’s then the team will
need a new outfielder but at the same time if they do this the teams in rebuild
mode so they’re not likely spending money on aging outfielders.
Milwaukee Brewers: While the team
does have a pretty strong outfield at the moment it all hinges on how much they
believe in Khris Davis. Davis was
on pace at one point last season to shatter the strike out record just after
the All-Star break but he finally found his swing and ended up being a strong
rookie campaign. Rios would be
more consistent but Davis has the upside.
Arizona Diamondbacks: The team
doesn’t really have a set RF for next season at this moment so it could work
for Rios. It’s a hitter friendly
field and less pressure than both Texas and Detroit would be so it has its
advantages. On the down side the
D-Backs aren’t likely to fork up the cash that Detroit and Texas can so it
would be a price cut. Secondly the
team isn’t ready to be in the playoff hunt next year but its time is coming, a 34-year-old
RF may not fit into their plans.
For more up to date baseball info
and reports you can follow me on Twitter at @Jbiesiada
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