Off Season Outlook: Justin Masterson

Off Season Outlook: Justin Masterson

            With all the talk going to big named stars like Jon Lester and Max Scherzer its not to shocking to see pitchers like Justin Masterson slip through the cracks.  Luckily he has been getting some attention lately so him finding a team should be relativity easy for him.  Masterson had a very up and down 2014 after having his statistically second best season of his career in 2013.  It will be interesting to see which Masterson shows up for the 2015 season and which teams are willing to take the risks.

            Justin Masterson was drafted in 2006 to the Boston Red Sox with in the second round with the 27 pick in the round.  He rose quickly through the system and was named one of the team’s best prospects in 07.  It only took till late 2008 for Masterson to see some action appearing in 36 games mostly out of the pen.  It wouldn’t be until his trade to the Cleveland Indians in 2009 that he’d start to see some significant time as a starter.

            Masterson had a pretty rough 2014 and it had some ups but mostly downs.  We’ll start with the most worrying issues for Masterson: an increase in hard hit average and an increase in walks.  The hard hit rate is worrisome for more than the obvious reason you would think.  Masterson’s line drive rate has been on the rise since 2011 where he had an 18.2% taking a dip in 2013 to 17.8% and hitting a career high in 2014 of 20.3%.  Interesting enough 2011 is when Masterson started to pitch as a starter regularly and in the 2 years he was a bullpen pitcher he had a 15.1% average line drive rate.  The line drive rate has been on the raise for a few years now but the HR/FB has been rather erratic.  Using the same time frame as we did with the line drive rate, 2011-2014, he’s had a HR/FB rate of 6.3%, 11.4%, 10.7%, and 14.6%.  Averaging that out we get roughly 10.75% HR/FB rate as a starter and that puts him about average with the league average for the last 6 years.

Strenghts:

            Masterson has been a very solid strikeout pitcher throughout his career.  He owns a 19.3% career strikeout rate and averaging a K/9 of 7.53 both of which are very stable and above average.  Despite last years hiccup Masterson has had a rather stable HR/FB over his career averaging roughly 10.5% of his fly balls making it over the fence and only allowing a 0.71 career HR/9.  His velocity has been fairly consistent throughout his career only having a drop of more than 2 MPH in velocity to his fastball in 2014 and considering his age that could have been just a fluke.

Cons:

            As I’ve stated before the negative trends are alarming and numerous.  The walks are coming more often and have been on the rise since his days in Boston.  While his strikeout numbers are fine he is getting hit more often and that could be do to his control issues.  If he falls behind he starts throwing over the plate and that makes him hittable.  Last years rise in HR/FB rate is something to watch even if he’s trending down in fly ball rate.  When it comes to consistency he has no benchmark and I have little confidence.  He’s had just as many good years as bad but they’re random and don’t follow a pattern making him a giant wildcard for any staff. 

Contracts:

            It’s hard to say what he will get since we have seen his productivity in 2014 is down and many of his numbers are trending negatively.  His last contract was a 1-year deal and $9.8 million and while I don’t see him making that much it would be a starting point.  If a team were willing to take a chance on him a 2-year deal at $10 million would be a safe bet.  Now this is in my perfect little world and not what reality will have happen.  Teams that are interested will have to pay a little more to gain his services.  Masterson would want some security with any deal he makes so a 3-4 year deal wouldn’t be out of the question and as for money I can see it reaching somewhere near $15-25 million.  Maybe that is overpaying him but if a team wants him they’ll pay it.

Teams:

Baltimore Orioles: While the team has needs to fill that are more important than signing Masterson but he is an option.  He could fit will in Baltimore as well being a nice anchor for a young team and a big field could cut down on the homeruns.

Boston Red Sox: Boston seems to be trying to gather its old players back and Masterson could be a nice fit in a weakened rotation.  Boston has spent a lot of money on offense so far and they haven’t been really focused on adding arms for the staff but much like Baltimore he would help a youngish team.

New York Yankees: They need pitching and need all the pitching they can get.  Not a great fit in that stadium but that won’t stop the team trying to sign him.

Chicago White Sox: Chicago seems to be making a push to fill the void that the Royals are going to leave.  More pitching will make a big difference for the team and Masterson could get a larger contract from this team than others.  White Sox are trying to build a winner and this could make them overpay.

Cleveland Indians: Traded him away but that doesn’t mean he’d be a bad fit.  The main issue will be the teams willing to pay the big contract that will be required.

Detroit Tigers: This team will always need pitching and with Scherzer on the market and no guarantee on coming back Masterson can fill a void.  Not the void that will be left by Scherzer’s leaving but he’s better than nothing.  Team has money and considering the struggles they’ve had with pitching they will be willing to spend.

Miami Marlins: I wouldn’t have considered this until the Stanton signing and the trades they’ve been making.  It could be the team is truly ready to step up its game and make a run and a good veteran like Masterson could help.  Not an ideal situation for Masterson but if Miami pulls more money out of that hollowed out tree they have in the everglades he’ll sign.  Do you have a better idea where they’re getting this money?

New York Mets: While offense is the major issue another strong pitcher to help take pressure of Harvey and DeGrom will help.  Masterson’s weaknesses could be easier to manage in a big stadium like New York’s so it wouldn’t be a bad match.

Chicago Cubs: I’m still not counting this team out of anything and with Theo Epstein, Masterson’s old GM, at the helm it could work.  Not a good stadium for him at all but again this could be a money thing for Masterson in the end.

Milwaukee Brewers:  Much like many teams on this list pitching is the major issue they have and will need to fill it fast if they want to try and repeat what they did last year.  Well at least try to.

            So what does this really say about Justin Masterson?  Well we can see that he has talent and can be a strong option for teams looking for a good pitcher.  But his negative trends make him a risky pick up for any team looking for him.

Off Season Outlook: Mike Carp

            With all the sexy names on the market this year there are a few that will inevitably fall through the cracks.  Mike Carp is one such player that wont get as much talk as Adam LaRoche or Mike Morse but has skills that some team could find very useful.  Carp was drafted back in 2004 by the New York Mets and was the 254^th pick overall.  Carp rose through the ranks and was in AA 3 years later but was traded in 2009 to the Seattle Mariners.  It’s with the Mariners that he got his first taste of the majors where he had issues staying healthy for and extended period of time.  It wasn’t until 2013 with the Red Sox where he had his big break out year as the teams main offensive replacement and pinch hitter.  2014 however did not show a repeat of his pervious season but continued to struggle with health and ineffectiveness.  Mike Carp isn’t a sexy name and he isn’t going to be the next big star but he could be worth a look to some teams but first lets see what happened last year.

            His 2014 campaign had many issues ranging from injuries to just plain ineffectiveness, as stated before.  His .175/.289/.230 slash line was a far cry from his 2013 total slash line of .296/.362/.523 and he played in almost 30 less games in 2014 than 2013.  What caused such a decline isn’t at first apparent but looking deep into the numbers compared to his career averages gives us a good picture.  First we see a 4% decrease in line drive rate from his 2013 season and a huge increase in infield fly balls touching 15.6% when his 2013 was only at 3.8%.  Another sign comes in his groundball rate, which jumped 5% from 2013, and if we put this all together it leads to poor contact.  Right there we have a very solid lead to his struggles and considering that other important stats like walk rate and strikeout rate were actually trending positively it just adds credence to the claim.  The last clue to look at is Carp’s BABIP, Batting Average on Balls in Play, which was almost 100 points below his career average.  Since BABIP is more or less a “luck stat” it could be that Carp just had tremendous bad luck and the numbers didn’t average out since he had limited playing time.  Given the numbers he was putting up it was very understandable to see why.

Strengths

            While we’ve really focused on his 2013 to 2014 differences it should be noted that Carp has flashed the potential to do this before and there are some good signs that he is worth a look.  His career .330 OBP is a very good sign of his ability to get on base and, as stated in the pervious paragraph, his BB% and strikeout rate were both trending upwards.  Given full playing time he could improve on those skills and other areas of his game could improve.  While Carp does swing about as often as the league average he also makes more contact and that could be a plus if his BABIP improves back to league averages.  The power is there and he has shown it in the past; his career ISO of .160 is 25 points above the league average ISO in 2014 and given his ability to make contact that is a nice combination to see.

Weaknesses

            While Carp has some impressive upside we have yet to see it really manifest itself in for a full season.  Carp was relegated to bench player in 2013 and that was at his best so we don’t know exactly what he would do with full time play.  While his some of his numbers are trending positively the 24.3% career strikeout rate is something to consider and is defiantly something to worry about.  Carp is completely a mess when it comes to his career splits jumping back and forward between stats being better versus LHPs and RHPs meaning it could be hard to use him in a pinch hitting role or make it easier depending on which numbers the manager would hold more importance in.  While his defense isn’t a disaster its also not up to the best of them having a career -8.4 UZR in all positions that he plays combined but on the plus side his main position of first base is far better than when he is in the outfield.

Contract

            2014 cost Carp a major payday or at least a very solid deal but now he will have to survive on likely a one-year deal at roughly only a million dollars.  His pervious contract of 1.4 million for a year isn’t out of the question but teams are going to try and get a deal closer to a million with maybe some incentives to see if he is worth the money.  Another possibility for Carp is getting a minor league contract and hoping to clear his name of last season’s failings.  This will obviously hurt his potential earnings but if he plays better and proves himself once more could help him make more overall.

Teams

            Really looking at it there are few teams that couldn’t stand to gain something from signing Carp to a minimum contract.  He wouldn’t be a starter for any team at this point even if has the potential to be one but with some position flexibility and a record of past success teams that need a bench player or a good fill in DH should at least take a look at him.

Off Season Outlook: Mark Reynolds

            The king of the K’s has once again hit the open market and today we’re going to take a look at him and using his numbers see what kind of market he has.  Remember that Reynolds may be known for his career 31.9% strike out rate but he also has been known as one of the more well-known power threats in baseball in his career.  Balancing such a free-swinging power threat as Reynolds is going to take some work for some teams but if they can it may be worth their time and the risk.

            The Arizona Diamondbacks drafted Reynolds back in 2004 in the 16^th round with the 15^th pick of the round, needless to say not much was expected of him.  However Reynolds proved himself quite well in the minors and in 2007 made his MLB debt doing very well and becoming the team’s main third baseman.  His stock improved each year with improved numbers across the board; this success however also came at the cost of many strikeouts.  In fact he broke the single season strikeout record in 2008 and again in 2009, yes he broke his own record he had set the previous season.  2009 was his final season of elite play though and all his significant stats started taking a major dive until 2014.

            2014 for Reynolds was his worst season to date in some areas and on the other hand raised some interesting questions.  His slash line of .196/.287/.394 marks his lowest career batting average and on-base percentage of his career and while his lowered batting average shouldn’t be looked on as a negative, we expected that and as we know BA’s really don’t tell us much, his on-base has been trending down since 2009 and is a bad sign for him.  His overall offense suffered this year as well only having a weighted runs created plus (wRC+) of 87 which puts him at 13% below league average in runs created.  His offensive WAR also took a hit having 2 straight seasons of negative offensive WAR, this years ending at -5.0 and being his career worst.  Lastly we have the obvious strikeouts and 2014 continued the trend of over 100 strikeouts and finishing the season with 154.

Strengths

            So that last paragraph really makes signing Reynolds a bad thing but there are some numbers that actually say that he’s not only worth a signing but he could/should be a starter.  Starting with the most unbelievable stat first, his strikeouts are trending down and have been since 2011.  I know right!  In 2011 he ended the season at 196 and the next 3 seasons he ended the season with 159, 155, 122 strikeouts.  At the relatively you age of 31 this is an interesting development for him and is something that every team should note.  Reynolds actually has been a model of consistency for years now and it wasn’t till 2013-14 that his OBP really dropped below league average; in fact he has a career OBP of .324, which is ever so slightly above league average.  While not known as a strong walker he does own a career walk rate of 11.6% and it’s been consistently between 10%-13% since 2007.              Lastly there is the famous Mark Reynolds power and as I’m sure you’ve noticed I have yet to even discuss his power numbers this entire time because it is a marvel.  Reynolds has only had an ISO below .210 twice in his career, 2013 and last season, but his .198 ISO in 2014 may say that his 2013 was an off year.  Reynolds numbers are so crazy he has more career homeruns (224) than he has both doubles and triples combined (182).  The fact that his 2014 BABIP was so low, almost 70 points below his career average, leads me to believe that had he been on par he could have had one heck of a season and his ISO and OPS may have taking a hit because of bad luck.

Weaknesses

            Lets get the easy one out of the way; Reynolds is a strikeout machine and while he is lowering the totals he still strikes out a lot.  Ironically its not the swing rate that’s the issue, though a career 47.7% swing rate is an issue, it’s the terrible 64.9% contact rate and that is what will lead to many strikeouts.  Reynolds is known for his power not his glove; Reynolds has only had 2 seasons in his entire career where he’s had a positive defensive WAR and some of those negative seasons got as bad as -29.6.  He is at the end of his prime years and there are some negative trends showing up in his OBP and, as one would expect, the batting average but the declining OBP is a bigger worry than the batting average.

Contract

            Reynolds isn’t coming off a good season and that will affect the payday he could expect.  Teams will take a look but I wouldn’t expect anything more than maybe $3 million a year as the absolute most per year contract.  I’m not confident that he would even be able to make that much per year and I would guess closer to $1.2-$1.5 per year.  Looking at the numbers and some of the difficulties he had last season but also seeing the potential signing to a 1-year $2 million contract would be a nice deal for the team, if the numbers do end up averaging out that is.

Teams

Tampa Bay Rays- This seems like a long shot but the team could use a strong DH option and the team has always struggled to have consistent power.  While we still need to see the affect on the team losing both their GM and manager within a few weeks of each other the team has to move forward and do what it can.  Reynolds would be a major downgrade in defense so he would be a DH only for the Rays.

Toronto Blue Jays- The Jays are a team that has had solid offense production but has had its fair share of injuries.  Reynolds could be a nice fill in player for them if a player like Brett Lawrie gets hurt as he normally does.  More likely another DH fill in for the team but since the team could use him in other positions it makes him a nice cheap option.

Chicago White Sox- With Paul Konerko retiring the team is going to need a new DH and Reynolds could fit well.  The team isn’t ready to compete just yet but at the same time they don’t have anything to really fill in for Konerko so Reynolds does fit the numbers they need.  Much like the Blue Jays he could be a nice back up plan just in case Abreu has injury issues.

Kansas City Royals- If the team can’t sign back Billy Butler than they’re going to need someone to fill the DH slot.  Reynolds may not be the best fit for a team trying to duplicate its 2014 like the Royals will be but he is an option.  Look for the team to kick the tires at least and see if a deal could be made.

Oakland Athletics- A team looking for in constant need to find a new power hitter and Reynolds could help.  The A’s actually can have a few uses for him as well not just as a platoon DH with Steven Vogt but also as a platoon option with Brandon Moss at first.  Not a bad fit for Reynolds and the A’s can use him in multiple ways; I would defiantly consider this one of his best landing spots.

Philadelphia Phillies- Ryan Howard is terrible and a platoon with Reynolds could see some good return.  Yes Reynolds would be a liability to the team’s defense but Howard’s numbers last year hid one of the worst seasons by a starting first baseman and they’d need to upgrade at some point and Reynolds would be a good stop gap.

Milwaukee Brewers- Even though the Brewers went out and grabbed Adam Lind, who will likely take up the bulk of first base duties, the team could use Reynolds for one rather large reason.  Lind can’t hit lefties what so ever and Reynolds can, this could be a dream platoon for the team since having two strong offensive options that they can fill in depending on who they face.  The team has experimented with this last year and found great success so why not do it again?

Off Season Team Outlook: St. Louis Cardinals

Contracts

Guaranteed Contracts:

·       Adam Wainwright, SP: $78MM through 2018

·       Matt Carpenter, 3B: $49.5MM through 2019

·       Yadier Molina, C: $45MM through 2017

·       Jhonny Peralta, SS: $37.5MM through 2017

·       Matt Holliday, OF: $35MM through 2016

·       Jaime Garcia, SP: $9.75MM through 2015

·       Aledmys Diaz, SS: $5.5MM through 2017

·       Randy Choate, RP: $3MM through 2015

·       John Lackey, SP: $500K through 2015

Arbitration Eligible:

·       Jon Jay, OF (4.134): $4.5MM

·       Peter Bourjos, OF (4.062): $1.6MM

·       Daniel Descalso, INF (4.016): $1.4MM

·       Lance Lynn, SP (3.119): $5.5MM

·       Tony Cruz, C (3.105): $0.7MM

·       Shane Robinson (2.141), OF: $0.5MM

Free Agents:

·      Justin Masterson

·      A.J. Pierzynski

·      Jason Motte

·      Mark Ellis

·      Pat Neshek

            The Cardinals have been one of the more consistent teams in the majors in the last 10 years and 2014 had the team once again making the playoffs.  The team however had its fair shares of issues during the season and struggled to have consistent pitching up and down the rotation and suffered from a lack of power.  The real question for the team is how they want to go about getting the new talent and fixing a team that has started to get a little on the old side.

Offense

            It’s been a few years since the team was considered the major powerhouse team where opponents had to deal with a major threat 1-8.  Though the team still has its threats it’s gone from Pujols, Edmonds and Walker to Holliday, Adams and Molina.  Needless to say it’s a bit of a drop off in talent and the Cards have had their fair share of struggles in 2014.  The team finished 11^th overall in the majors in offensive WAR sitting just behind the Kansas City Royals.  The team was above the mid point of the majors but only by a little having only 4 points of WAR separate themselves from the New York Mets who finished 2014 with the 15^th best offensive WAR

            The real struggles for the team came in the power department having the 3^rd worst ISO in all of baseball; in fact they were 1 point above the Padres and 3 above the Royals.  Now ISO isn’t just homeruns it accounts for all extra base hits the team gets and the lower the total the lower amount of XBH that team was generating so you can see why the Cardinals would look at this with some concern.  While the Royals are proving that it doest take power to win, and for that matter the Cardinals themselves can be looked at for this same reason, having a lower XBH totals tends to make the team more streaky than you’d like to see in a playoff team.  The more consistent the bats the better the team.  This brings us back to the question of why the low XBH totals?  Well that leads into another issue this team is going to have to address, the lack of good base runners.

            BsR is a stat that combines the team’s wSB or weighted Stolen Bases, a stat to give the difference between stolen bases and the times caught stealing, and UBR or Ultimate Base Running, a stat that the website Fangraphs created to “value a player adds to the team via base running (you can look that up here UBR).  The Cardinals have the leagues worst BsR of -10.5 meaning not only that the team wasn’t hitting for power but also not running the bases effectively.

            I’ve fired a lot of shots at the team so far and I do so for 1 reason.  To show what areas the team needs to improve on and when it comes to the team’s offense it’s easily the power production and getting some more effective base runners.  Luckily the team only has 1 real weak area that needs to be filled by a player, all that they really need is an upgrade to right field.  With the tragic passing of Oscar Taveras the team has been left in a tough situation.  To make room for him the team traded Allen Craig at the deadline and with his passing the team is left trying to figure out how they want to proceed; do they go to the system or sign a free agent?  Well let’s take a look at both options that the team has and give the pros and cons to both options.

System

            According to Baseball America: Prospect Handbook the team had the 8^th best system heading into the 2014 season but much of that was tied into the talent of Taveras.  The team does have players that can play right field but aren’t near the skill that Taveras had.  First we have Scott Piscotty, a right fielders drafted back in 2012 as a supplemental pick for Albert Pujols, and was rated by Baseball America as the 4^th best prospect in the system.  His 2014 campaign actually was very successful having a slash line of .288/.355/.406 with 9 homeruns and 69 RBI’s in 136 at-bats.  His power was down significantly from his previous seasons hitting 6 less homers and having an ISO drop from .147 in 2013 to .118 in 2014.  Piscotty has the systems best outfield arm according to Baseball America and has improved his range and defensive skills in right field.  Piscotty represents the best option for the team as it pertains to the system; he is the most refined and overall talented player in the system at the moment.

Free Agency

Alex Rios- Rios represents the best player in the pool that plays right field but Rios does have some downsides that make him a risky signing though.  He’s going to be 34 and on the downside of his career before the season begins and he’s coming off a down season as well making it likely that he isn’t going to improve.  Rios had a .280/.311/.398 slash line in 2014, totals put him below his career average, represents his worst slash line since 2011.

Norichika Aoki- Aoki had another fine season for the Royals in 2014 ending the season with a .286/.349/.360 slash line with a very impressive 8.9% strikeout rate.  As with Rios Aoki comes with downsides as well: he had a BsR of -10 and his wSB was only -0.3 meaning he’s not the fastest or best runner and since that’s 2 areas the team is trying to improve that’s not a good thing.  His defense was ok last year having a defensive WAR of 2.2 and his power is nonexistent having an ISO of .094.  Aoki will be 33 when the 2015 season begins.

Nolan Reimold- An interesting option compared to the previous two players but one that has its risks nonetheless.  Reimold had limited time last year for the Orioles and the Diamondbacks due to injuries and ineffective play.  He played in 29 games and had a total of 78 plate appearances and ended the season with a slash line of .232/.282/.435.  That slugging is the main reason anyone will consider him and his .203 ISO in only 78 plate appearances is going to get a lot of attention.  Reimold also had a BsR of 0.2, not terrible but not great either but for a team trying to improve at least he’s not as bad as Aoki was.  Reimold’s biggest downside is the strikeout rate; in 2014 Reimold struck out 41% of his at-bats which was way higher than his average and not likely to be repeated.

Pitching

            The Cardinals were one of the more mediocre pitching staffs this year and fixing this could go along way to a repeat playoff birth.  The teams pitching ranked 18^th overall in WAR in 2014 with a 13.3, which was the worst out of all teams that made the playoffs.  The starting rotation ended the season with a team ERA of 3.44 (5^th) and a FIP of 3.67 (10^th) and was a major strength for the team down the stretch.  As for the bullpen the team did not fair nearly as well ending in the bottom 15 of the league in both ERA and FIP and was the major weak point for the team.

            Most MLB teams are taking notice that the bullpen is quickly becoming one of the more important areas to have staffed and going into the 2014 season St. Louis had thought it had a strong one.  But struggles to incumbent closer Trevor Rosenthal and many others lead to the teams 3.62 ERA and equally as bad 3.61 FIP.  Remember relief pitchers pitch less innings than starters so a 3.62 for a bullpen is not the same as a 3.62 for the rotation, its more equivalent to a 4.00 ERA for the rotation.  The team under preformed in other areas: K/9 (21^st), HR/9 (17^th), HR/FB% (17^th) and a WAR of 2.3 gave them the 18^th best bullpen.  There is some good news the team had one of best bullpen WHIP’s of 1.22 so that does mean there’s hope.

            With the rotation pretty firmly settled on Adam Wainwright, Shelby Miller, John Lackey, Lance Lynn and Michael Wacha or Jaime Garcia next season there doesn’t seem to be much room for an addition so the team is going to be able to focus on the bullpen.  The team has many pitchers in the minors that could help them but the question is do they want to.  They have shown a willingness to let pitchers come out of the pen even if they seen them as starters in the future but many are young and they don’t want too use to many in that role for too long.  That means the best option is the free agent market.

Free Agents

Matt Albers: While Albers didn’t have what you would call an amazing season in Houston…well ok he pitched 8 games then was done for the year.  But reports show he is healthy at this point and could be of use to a lot of teams and St. Louis is one of them.  Albers has a career 6.30 K/9 rate and a 3.98 BB/9, neither is amazing and in fact the BB/9 would terrifying if it weren’t for the fact it’s trending down.  He’s been steadily lowering his BB/9 since 2009 when he pitched for the Orioles.  A ground ball pitcher by nature he could fit right into a field that is pitcher friendly and with a strong infield defense like St. Louis has.

Mike Adams: Another pitcher who’s 2014 was cut short do to injuries but is still effective.  In 18 innings of work he tallied a 10.13 K/9 and a 3.86 BB/9, the strikeouts more than making up for the walks in that case.  While he is again more prone to ground balls he is also getting up there in years.  At 36 he’s already seen his fastball velocity drop from 92.7 in 2011 to 90.2 in 2014 and last year only touching 89.8 and that could be a warning flag.

Sean Burnett: A solid LHP that fell into injury issues the last 2 seasons but can be an effective pitcher when healthy.  A career 6.72 K/9 and 3.55 BB/9 are decent enough for a lefty specialist but a solid 3.53 ERA is a nice bonus.  As stated Burnett has had some health issues in the last few years and that has to be a factor when considering him.

Andrew Miller: Rumors are already buzzing that the team is pretty interested in this once number one prospect turned relief pitcher and its defiantly a smart choice.  After reinventing himself as a relief pitcher Miller has been able to shut down offensives very regularly and has been able to lower his ERA each of the last 3 years, all as a relief pitcher.  He’s young and all the numbers are trending positively for this guy and its not wonder that many teams are eyeing him and are willing to shell out some more money than a relief pitcher normally demands.

Pat Neshek and Jason Motte: Just resigning them would be a strong start to getting this bullpen under control.  Neshek had the teams best ERA last year and Motte, when healthy, could easily step into a closer role should Rosenthal’s struggles continue.

Free Agent Outlook: Marlon Byrd

            Well the baseball season is over but that doesn’t mean the game goes quite either.  For now what I plan on doing is looking at this seasons free agents, players that are up for a big pay day or just bench players.  I plan to also give reports on signings and my feelings on them.  This week we start with a scouting report and outlook at Marlon Byrd.

            Marlon Byrd played with two teams this season: the Mets and the Pirates and helped the Pirates get to the playoffs for the first time in many years.  Byrd is an ageless wonder; he will be 36 by the beginning of the 2014 season and will turn 37 near the end of the season and has had some of his best seasons in the last few years hitting for power and not killing the team hitting for AVG.  Lets take a quick look at Byrd and see what he has in store for this offseason.

Offense

            Byrd is a career .280/.336/.425 slash line with a K/BB ratio of 2.8, this is good and slightly above average overall though his K/BB rate could be better being on the lower end.  Byrd has an OPS of .760, which is middle of the road much like his OBP and SLG would imply.  Now one thing that does stand out is the rise in ISO in the last few years: .164, .194, .119, .035(injured), and last season a .220 a pretty big jump.  His power can flux a bit but I don’t think he’s a power guy overall, his only 2 seasons with 20+ HR’s were the 09 with the Rangers and last years splitting time with the Mets and Pirates.  I see him as a 10 HR guy but he’s not going to be paid like one this offseason.

            His contact rate has been in decline slowly since 09 where he had a 79% contact rate.  Last season he ended the season with a 72% contact rate, which is the biggest drop since the 09 season.  His lowering Contact rate is starting to become a trend and one that teams need to recognize.  Combine this with a rising K/BB rate teams need to note that his AVG is going to dip bad at some point and if the lowering Contact rate and rising Swing% are to be believed id actually say its going to be sooner.

Defense

            Bryd has never had a strong arm but he is fast and has decent defense.  He has a career .986 Fielding Percentage which is decent for his position but this again is his career percentage and many of his other stats are on the decline.  His FSR (Fan Scouting Report) has been on the decline since 09, on a scale where -15 is awful and 15 Byrd rates a -6.  His UZR tells a similar story; rating on the same scale as FSR he ranks a 15.6 for his career.  Now last year Byrd rated a 2.4, which is just barely average, in 09 Byrd had a 10.2 and has had it dropping fast since then.  Sad to say Byrd is becoming more and more of a DH rather than a OF and this should become a factor when a team signs him.

Outlook

            Byrd made 6.5 million in 2012 and 700K in 2013 roughly averaging 3.5 million since the 09 season mostly playing in the NL.  Given what he did last season Byrd is going to find many teams that could use him but seeing how the he is trending down any team that signs him is getting a diminished return.  I wouldn’t be shocked to see a 2-year deal worth 10-15 million.  Personally I see either the Baltimore O’s or the Seattle Mariners, teams that could use a good DH and still let Byrd play the field if he demands it.

Free Agent Outlook: Jed Lowrie

            One of the most important factors when determining a player’s value is going to be the position he plays.  After all if a team doesn’t need an outfielder then they’re not going to sign an outfielder just to sign the best player in the market.  There are some positions however that always seems to have a large market value: for example catchers and pitchers are in high demand by most teams.  Today’s subject is in one of those prime positions and happens to be the one of the top shortstops on the market, for better or worse.

	BB%	K%	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	wOBA	wRC+	WAR
2014	9.0%	14.0%	.249	.321	.355	.676	.106	.281	.300	93	1.9
2013	7.6%	13.7%	.290	.344	.446	.791	.156	.319	.345	120	3.5
Career	9.2%	16.1%	.261	.330	.411	.741	.150	.292	.325	103	11.2

            Jed Lowrie is by no means an elite shortstop but at the same time he brings a plethora of skills that teams will appreciate.  Solid defense, solid hitting, solid base running ability, and solid knowledge of the game make Lowrie quite the commodity for a team desperate for a shortstop.  Looking at the last few seasons Lowrie its hard to gauge him as a hitter since he was coming off a career year in 2013 and having a passable season in 2014 hurt his stock very little, but it didn’t help him either.  The main reason for this off year seems to be a decrease hard hits and maybe even the stadium itself.  While his home field may not have shown much effect on him in 2013 we can see a drastic decrease in HR/FB ratio from 6.8 in 2013 to 3.2 in 2014, that’s also 3% below his career average HR/FB rate.  We also see an increase in infield base hits from 5% to 7.4% in a span of a season.  Not a giant increase but it does support the idea of him hitting with less authority.  Another clue to his struggles could be the lowered BABIP; while not a direct correlation between the hard hit theory and his struggles it would be safe to say that a player that is getting less lucky could just be hitting softer.  Overall Lowrie did fine last year if not just average and still did far better than many other shortstops in 2014

            Pros: Lowrie is a jack-of-all-trades type of player and happens to be at a position where that skill is most appreciated.  Lowrie has a little power that could give you 10-12 homeruns a year, which doesn’t sound like much but consider shortstops aren’t exactly known for their power it’s a bonus, and even at the top of the order can score a fair bit of RBI’s.  While not a speedster Lowrie isn’t a base cloggier either meaning that usually high OBP won’t be dead weight once he reaches base.  Speaking of his OBP skill Lowrie has a good eye only swinging outside the strike zone 28.5% of the time last year and that’s 2% more than his career 25%.  He does take a fair amount of walks and that makes him a strong top of the order guy which is something teams can always use.  Defensively Lowrie is above average as well actually having a far better defensive WAR (21.7) in his career versus his offensive WAR (0.8) and that alone is a reason teams will want him up the middle.  Its always nice to have that defense up the middle that you can put them in and not have to worry about them.

            Cons: There’s a second half to that saying of “jack-of-all-trades” and its “master of none.”  Lowrie fits that to a tee basically being able to do a little of everything but not going to rock the world in any.  He’ll hit for average but not a monster one and the same goes for power, his speed will limit the number of doubles he’ll get as he gets older.  Speaking of age Lowrie is 30 and while this is younger than most of the other players I’ve talked about it still is right at the edge of the “prime years” scale of 26-31 and it is something to consider.  Lowrie seems to have his up and down years and no real discernable trends to point at and say, “Oh see this is where he struggles” and that could be frustrating.  He’s actually only had 3 seasons out of his 7 total years be positive in offensive WAR, two of which have been monster seasons for him.  Injuries have also been an issue for him; in 2013 it was the first time in his career he played over 100 games and last year he played 136 and that’s 18 less from 2013’s total of 152.

            Contract: Looking at his current contract the money is actually what I’d give him but he’s probably worth more.  Given the lack of solid shortstops in the market he will be a prime target for many teams and at the relatively young age of 30 he still has some good years ahead of him.  If looking at what someone like Asdrubal Cabrera made last year, a fellow free agent by the way, I would say a fair deal for Lowrie would be about $7 million a year.  Given his age and value a 3-4 year deal wouldn’t be out of the question.  Lowrie is probably about to make a good chunk of change very soon.

            Teams:

New York Yankees: They are in desperate need of a shortstop and they may very well go all out for this guy.  With Derek Jeter retiring and J.J. Hardy, the team’s first choice, already signed Lowrie makes perfect sense.  He strengthens an already terrible infield defense and adds a much-needed bat to the lineup.  Best choice for the Yanks and best choice for Lowrie as well.

Cleveland Indians: While I don’t think the team wants to sign anyone for shortstop at the same time they have no backup plan if their star rookie Francisco Lindor fails to meet expectations.  Lowrie is a good choice if the team has any reservations about Lindor’s bat.

Detroit Tigers: I’m pretty sure the Tigers have made every list so far for every player I’ve looked at.  The Tigers have a poor infield defense and Lowrie could help put some life into it again.  Now much like the Indians the Tigers do have an option that they’ll likely look at before considering this deal since Jose Inglasis comes off the DL this year and should be fine.  While Inglasis has the far better glove the bat is still very suspect and Lowrie is the better overall option.

Houston Astros: So this is an odd choice but at the same time it makes sense.  The team is rebuilding and they are far closer to being a good team than most give credit.  They don’t want to rely on Marwin Gonzalez and Jonathan Villar isn’t proving to be what they’d hoped so a short/long term option is a good idea.

Oakland Athletics: Losing him will be a blow to the team.  The A’s are going to have a hard time really prying him away from the Yankees since the team has far less funds.

Cincinnati Reds: Zack Cozart isn’t a good shortstop and Lowrie would be a major upgrade.  Really that’s about it, the team can afford him and he helps a lot.

Pittsburgh Pirates: With no solid major options and the only shortstop in the minors rated as an average player ceiling at best it wouldn’t hurt the team to consider Lowrie.  While the teams main concern seems to be resigning Russell Martian to a contract they could keep an eye on the Lowrie bidding to see if he stays at a lower price.

Colorado Rockies: The Rockies have had issues with shortstop for a few years now and a solid hitting option is something the team really could use.  While no the most desired spot to go for Lowrie since the Rockies aren’t a playoff team just yet but he would be a major piece for a team that needs to stack the offense to make a difference.

Los Angeles Dodgers: This is only an option for the Dodgers if Hanley Ramirez chooses to go somewhere else and they need a new shortstop.  If that were to happen look for them to have a bidding war with the Yankees since in that scenario neither team can afford to loss.