2014 Predictions

2014 Predictions

AL West:

1: Oakland A’s

2: LA Angels

3: Texas Rangers

4: Houston Astros

5: Seattle Mariners

With all the injuries that have happened in this division it’s completely changed the face of the division.  The team hit the hardest is going to be Texas Rangers and to me has taken them out of the playoff picture.  I don’t think they will be able to hold on long enough to even get a playoff picture.

AL Central:

1: Detroit Tigers

2: Kansas City Royals

3: Cleveland Indians

4: Chicago White Sox

5: Minnesota Twins

A division on the rise, all but one of these teams has shown a lot of improvement.  The White Sox could be relevant in a few years and the Indians, while unlikely, could even compete this year.  The big two teams is the Royals and Tigers who have made the push to be playoff teams.

AL East:

1: Tampa Bay Rays

2: Baltimore Orioles

3: New York Yankees

4: Boston Red Sox

5: Toronto Blue Jays

Man this is a tough choice and I still struggle with it even as I write this.  It’s tough to really say who will come out on top since I can see all 4 of the top 4 I’ve listed.  So I’ve made more or less a best guess that I can make based on more or less depth.  Trying to guess which team could be best if each team lost players so on so forth.

Wild Card winners:

Kansas City Royals and Baltimore Orioles

NL West:

1: LA Dodgers

2: San Francisco Giants

3: Arizona Diamondbacks

4: San Diego Padres

5: Colorado Rockies

This is the Dodgers division to lose and there are plenty of ways to do this.  The Giants and Diamondbacks have good teams but both have enough issues that the Dodgers strength can beat out.  The Dodgers aren’t immortal or anything and could have their own issues if things don’t go perfectly and that’s not a likely outcome.  Puig is being an issue and some of the most critical members of the team have health issues and their depth isn’t the best.

NL: Central

1: St. Louis Cardinals

2: Cincinnati Reds

3: Pittsburgh Pirates

4: Milwaukee Brewers

5: Chicago Cubs

What a division!  The Cardinals are the best of the bunch and is easily the strongest of the bunch and has very few weaknesses even in the minors.  The Reds and the Pirates didn’t really improve too much but they’re still better than the Brewers and Cubs.  The wild cards will come out of this division mostly because the rest of the NL just isn’t very strong and even with the Reds and Pirates kind of being the same as last year they’ll both be wild card teams.

NL East:

1: Washington Nationals

2: Atlanta Braves

3: New York Mets

4: Philadelphia Phillies

5: Miami Marlins

Just the opposite of the NL Central we have the East.  The Braves and Nationals are both the best in this division and the Nationals could be one of the best in the league if they all can pull themselves together.

Wild Cards: Cincinnati Reds and Pittsburgh Pirates

NL Champs: St. Louis Cardinals

AL Champs: Tampa Bay Rays

World Series Champs: St. Louis Cardinals

The Cards just have it all when it comes right down to it; amazing pitching, amazing batting and great depth in all areas.  They lost one of their main starters for the year and they just throw in a new pitcher that’s one of baseballs best young pitchers, that’s just how deep the teams minor league system is.  In the end the lineup is strong and the pitching is strong so they get my pick.

Scouting Report: Chris Carter

Scouting Report: Chris Carter

            Not to long ago I was listening to the Astros play a spring training game I heard, to me, the oddest sentence I’ve heard in a while. “Chris Carter is a patient hitter and takes a lot of pitches which leads to a lot of strike outs.”  This seemed so counter intuitive that I had to take a look and right as I decided to make it my first scouting report of the year.  So with that lets take a look at the 1b/DH for the Houston Astros, Chris Carter.

Batting:

            To start Carter’s slash line last season was .223/.320/.451.  In fact this isn’t a terrible slash line minus the very low BA; the OBP is just league average but the SLG is actually very good.  Lets look at the BA first; it’s not going to get any better from this point.  He tends to swing more than most players at 46% Swing% which is only 1.5% higher than the league average, which is fine, but the problem is the contact rate.  League average Contact% is 80%, Chris Carter is sitting at 65.4% which means he swings and misses much to often.  In fact Carter struck out 36.2% of the time last year, no player is able to hit for a high BA if he is striking out that much.  But there is a good side to this; in the last 5 years the average BB% is 19% and Carter career BB% is at 12.1 meaning he’s actually very good at taking a walk.  While this seems to be counter intuitive it does make some sense, remember he striking out from swings but they are quality swings.  In fact Carter swings at pitches outside the zone about 2% less often than the rest of the league and in a game of inches that’s a big gap.  So from what we can see Chris Carter is patient at the plate but has many holes in his swing that pitchers can exploit, he doesn’t swing at bad pitches as often as others but he doesn’t make as much contact either.

            Well this explains his BA and OBP but lets take a look at the power, which Carter has no lack of.  The average SLG and OPS for the last five years has been .404 and .727 and Carters SLG last season was .451 and OPS was even more impressive at .770 both a 50 point gap from league average and that’s a lot of power.  In fact Carter also has a wRC+ (weighted Runs Created+) of 113 meaning he’s created 13% more runs than the league average last year, which is quite impressive given the team he is on.  Last year his ISO was at an astounding .227 and the league average is sitting at .148.  Almost a full 100 point gap between the two so that just shows you how much power Carter can generate.  All this amounts to one simple thing; if Chris Carter could start making better contact with the ball he would be a beast.

Bottom line when it comes to Chris Carter it really looks like a pitch recognition problem.  He can see the fastball fine but he struggles very much with curves and sliders, sliders even more than the curve by a wide margin.  That could actually be because sliders tend to look like fastballs then break and since Carter is great with fastballs he could be fooled easily.

Fielding:

            Bottom line is he’s below average in many ways not just his glove.  Carter was originally a LF but he had to be moved to 1B because his glove, range and speed just didn’t make him a good fit.  According to Insider Edge Carter was only able to make 25% of plays they deemed “likely” when the average range is close to the 60% range and he made all the routine plays.  His UZR last year sits at -3.1 saying his range is very limited and he costs the team more runs in the process.  Theres not much else to say here other than Carter needs to stay at the DH to be of any worth to the Astros.

Final Thoughts:

            I came into this report looking to pretty much bash Chris Carter saying, “oh he doesn’t hit, strikes out a lot but he can hit home runs.”  Well I’m still right but it goes deeper than that, he takes more walk’s and shows more patients than one would think but at the same time has less pitch recognition than most players.  In the end Carter is a power machine but considering last year his BABIP actually says he was kinda lucky I don’t see him all of a sudden hitting .250; he’ll mash 30 HR’s and could hit for a lot of RBI’s but never for BA.

Fantasy Baseball Rankings

Fantasy Baseball Rankings

            When it comes to baseball there’s only one thing that tops actually playing the sport and that’s fantasy baseball.  I love this simple little game that has more strategy to it then most people give credit and it also is a game that is tailor made for my statistic loving ways.  Today I want to go over the top 10 players for every position and give my potential busts for all you fantasy players out there.  When I say “busts” I refer to not just players that will have a bad year but a player that has a high chance to not give the stats for when you have to draft them.  So that settled lets get started with my top 10 fantasy players per position.  I’m not going to go to far in depth on my picks but ill talk about my reasons for picking busts and breakout players.

Catcher:

1)   Buster Posey

2)   Joe Mauer

3)   Yadier Molina

4)   Carlos Santana

5)   Jonathan LuCroy

6)   Brian McCann

7)   Salvador Perez

8)   Matt Wieters

9)   Wilin Rosario

10)                  Jason Castro

Busts: Yadier Molina and Carlos Santana

Potential breakout: Francisco Cervelli

I like both Molina and Santana and I do think they’ll be very good fantasy options but I do question where you’ll have to draft them.  Both will be drafted higher than I’d personally draft them and there are a lot of really good options that can be drafted late.  Cervelli has been waiting for a chance to play but just keeps getting blocked by catchers, with rumors of trades coming out he could find a starting job soon.

1B:

1)   Paul Goldschmidt

2)   Joey Votto

3)   Edwin Encarnacion

4)   Prince Fielder

5)   Albert Pujols

6)   Chris Davis

7)   Freddie Freeman

8)   Eric Hosmer

9)   Adrian Gonzalez

10)                  Jose Abreu

Busts: Chris Davis and Eric Hosmer

Potential breakout: Jose Abreu

I have not been a fan of Davis for a while now and the fact you’ll most likely have to spend a 1^st or 2^nd round pick for a guy that’s going to strike out a lot and could see a BA of .260.  But the power is legit and could be a major help.  Hosmer is a great player but he’s been a little inconsistent in the past.  Jose Abreu is a rookie this year and has a lot of potential and could be a great value for where he’s being drafted.

2B:

1)   Robinson Cano

2)   Dustin Pedroia

3)   Ben Zobrist

4)   Brandon Phillips

5)   Jason Kipnis

6)   Jose Altuve

7)   Ian Kinsler

8)   Chase Utley

9)   Aaron Hill

10)                  Daniel Murphy

Busts: Jason Kipnis and Jose Altuve

Potential breakout: Jurickson Profar and Jedd Gyorko

Kipnis and Altuve seem to be prone to slumps that they have a hard time actually getting out of.  They both have potential to be great players and while both have different skill sets so we shall see.  I put both Gyorko and Profar in the breakout since they both have a great chance to really roll with the starting job they have.

3B:

1)   Miguel Cabrera

2)   Adrian Beltre

3)   David Wright

4)   Evan Longria

5)   Matt Carpenter

6)   Josh Donaldson

7)   Aramis Ramirez

8)   Kyle Seager

9)   Martin Prado

10)                  Ryan Zimmerman

Busts: Ryan Zimmerman and Evan Longoria

Potential breakout: Brett Lawrie

Longoria has some health issues and to be honest has never lived up to the “top pick” hype and Zimmerman is never going to be that .300 30 HR guy we hoped he would be.  Both are good players and worth a roster spot just make sure you have a backup.  Lawrie may not be a rookie and has played in the majors for a couple years now but injuries have limited him, he’s prime to breakout and be a star.

SS:

1)   Troy Tulowitzki

2)   Hanley Ramirez

3)   Jose Reyes

4)   Jed Lowrie

5)   Ian Desmond

6)   Elvis Andrus

7)   Andrelton Simmons

8)   Asdrubal Cabrera

9)   Jimmy Rollins

10)                  Alexi Ramirez

Busts: Jean Segura and Elvis Andrus

Potential breakout: Jonathan Villar

I know I didn’t put Segura on the top 10 but I have him ranked lower than many people and considering how hiddenly bad his second half stats were last year its best to keep that in mind.  Andrus had some back issues this spring and with him stealing less bases than wed like he could hurt your speed.  Villar has some major speed potential but has issues with BA so we shall see if he can hit for a decent enough of a BA to keep him in the lineup.

Outfield:

1)   Mike Trout

2)   Andrew McCutchen

3)   Carlos Gonzalez

4)   Ryan Braun

5)   Bryce Harper

6)   Jose Bautista

7)   Matt Holliday

8)   Jacoby Ellsbury

9)   Adam Jones

10)                  Giancarlo Stanton

Busts: Giancarlo Stanton and Jacoby Ellsbury

Potential breakout: Jason Heyward

Stanton is a beast with major power but he has the issue of being a Marlin, really that’s his biggest problem.  Ellsbury has some game changing speed but the major health issues makes him a risk to draft.  Jason Heyward has been looking good during spring and if he can stay healthy he could finally breakout and give us that star season we all have been expecting.

Starting Pitching:

1)   Clayton Kershaw

2)   David Price

3)   Yu Darvish

4)   Max Scherzer

5)   Steven Strausberg

6)   Madison Bumgarner

7)   Justin Verlander

8)   Felix Hernandez

9)   Adam Wainwrigth

10)                  Cliff Lee

Busts: Max Scherzer and Cliff Lee

Potential breakout: Masahiro Tanaka

I have nothing wrong with Scherzer or Lee but I think there’s going to be some regression with Scherzer and Lee is on a bad team so that limits him in a lot of ways.  It’s really no surprise to see Tanaka on the breakout list; so much potential to be a fantastic pitcher but we have to see if it transfers from Japan.

Relief Pitcher:

1)   Craig Kimbrel

2)   Aroldis Chapman

3)   Kenley Jensen

4)   Greg Holland

5)   Trevor Rosenthal

6)   Koji Uehara

7)   Jim Johnson

8)   Joe Nathan

9)   Jason Grilli

10)                  David Robertson

Busts: Jason Grilli and Koji Uehara

Potential breakout: David Robertson

Both Grilli and Uehara are top closers but both kinda got luckey last year; some of the stats say that a regression is possible for both of these pitchers.  Personally I’d be very weary of both of them.  David Robertson gets his second chance to close and he has the talent and the pitches to really get some great save totals.

First Look: NL East

First Look-NL East

Florida Marlins:

Pitching-This team makes the Astros look World Series contenders and the pitching is where it starts.  Jose Fernandez is a amazing pitcher and will be the ace of this club and could easily be the ace of a lot of teams.  This is the 2^nd year so his innings limit will be lifted a little and we’ll see how he does in his second season.  Jacob Turner is good pitcher but young and we need to see how he does in the rotation full time.  After that the pitching is just bad and many of the people are barely note worthy since there’s no real rotation that could change last year.  The bullpen has a few more weapons like Steve Cishek but the rest are just average pitchers in general.  Cishek is a decent pitcher but the only reason that he’s a closer is the fact that there’s no one else, he’d be a good relief pitcher on other teams don’t get me wrong but he’s no closer.  Overall this staff is terrible, it will win games but it won’t compete any time soon.

Hitting-There’s more talent here and it’s a decent enough lineup but nothing that will rock the world.  Giancalo Stanton is a very good player, big time power and a good fielder makes him a rising super star and the heart of this lineup.  Rafael Furcal is a good hitter but his legs are getting older and his bat is losing pop, he will help no doubt but he isn’t the Furcal we all know.  Christian Yelich is young and untested but he has a lot of talent and could be a big help for this team moving forward.  Overall the offense is weak but it has some bite, you can never truly count Stanton out.

New York Mets:

Pitching-A rotation that has strength but took a major hit with Matt Harvey going down to Tommy John surgery.  Bartolo Colon is a good signing and the move to the NL East will boost his stats but having to bat is a new one for him and I question if he can stay healthy.  Dillon Gee is a good pitcher and will help the team win a good few games but he’s no ace.  Zack Wheeler has a lot of talent and this year could be the year we see him pull it all together.  Last year being his rookie season so we could see him become a big time ace.  The bullpen is not very deep but they do have Bobby Parnell though he reminds me of Steve Cishek where he’s closer only because he’s the best of a bad situation.  Overall it’s not much better than the Marlins but the rotation is better and could be really good if Harvey hadn’t gotten himself hurt.

Batting-It has some talent but this lineup isn’t going to trouble the better pitching in the league.  David Wright will always be a threat to any lineup; while not as fast Matt Carpenter or having the power of Evan Longoria Wright has a great eye and a legit .340 AVG and will be a tough out for every pitcher.  Daniel Murphy has a David Wright ability to hit for a high AVG but not to his extent and will be another tough out.  After them there is a serious decrease in talent falls fast; Curtis Granderson and Ike Davis are cut from the same cloth all power and not much else.  The big question is how well can Travis d’Arnaud can hit, while catchers tend to develop their hitting skills last so we shall see what happens.  Overall it’s a lineup that needs help and it needs help now.  It needs only a few pieces to make it a good lineup but none are easily available.

Philadelphia Phillies:

Pitching-The Phillies have some skilled pitchers but they’ve seen better days.  Cliff Lee and Cole Hamels are both fantastic pitchers and will continue to show their skills this year as the 1-2 punch at the head of the rotation.  A.J. Burrnett is a good pitcher but I question if his move to the Phillies will be a good one for him or the team, he relied on the spacious surroundings of PNC Park and a very strong defense behind him to succeed and he doesn’t have that now.  Roberto Hernandez and Kyle Kendrick round up the last spots and both are serviceable pitchers but nothing to special.  The bullpen is decent but not as good as others.  Jonathan Papelbon will start the season as the closer but we shall see how he does being another year older and his skills starting to decline.  Mike Adams, Phillippe Aumont, Antonio Bastardo and Brad Lincoln are all very good pitchers but beyond Bastardo and Adams they aren’t as tested but are both good nonetheless.  Overall it’s a good staff but an older one and one that can fall hard if things don’t go right.

Batting-In a word weak; this team has a lot of holes starting with Ryan Howard who is so bad against LHP that they are considering platooning him which is the first sign of bad news when your “power” bat is a platoon player.  Chase Utley is still the best hitter on this team but his skills and health are both on the decline and injuries could be his downfall.  Dominic Brown had a great season last year but history is against him and we have to find out if he is what he did last year or year’s prior.  Ben Revere is a great hitter but no power; then again when you’re as fast as he is you don’t need power.  Revere is probably this teams 2^nd best hitter, which is saying something.  Overall this team has issues and these issues come in multiple forms; injuries, age and ineffectiveness are the big and real worries for this team.

Atlanta Braves:

Pitching-The pitching staff is pretty much what kept the Braves afloat last year after such a hot start and they hope to keep that up.  Mike Minor finally had that break out season we had expected for quite some time now and almost recorded 200 K’s while Kris Medlen recorded a very strong season so the Braves have that going for them.  The big question marks are on Brandon Beachy getting healthy and Julio Teheran reproducing what he did last year.  If all comes to what they hope this staff will fight with the best teams and be one of the more feared rotations.  The bullpen guys are no slouches either; Craig Kimbrel has securely put himself as MLB’s premier closers in the game.  Jordan Walden finally had a strong season after his trade from the Angels and looks to be one of the better bullpen guys out there, along with Jonny Venters who looks to have a comeback season.  Overall the staff is strong but needs to keep up the pace set last year to really succeed, one bad injury and the cogs could come off easily.

Batting-What a disappointment this lineup was last year and they need to do better this year or they’ll never catch up to the Nationals.  Don’t get me wrong this team has massive potential to score some big time runs with guys like Freddie Freeman and Jason Heyward at the helm.  Justin Upton and BJ Upton are what they are and I don’t see why we keep thinking so high on them anymore.  Justin in particular has never reached that level of glory we put on him back in AZ and when he has its never been for a complete season.  Chris Johnson brings a good contact bat to the lineup and Andrelton Simmons isn’t the best bat in the game but he’s learning fast and with that defense he plays could be a top tier SS sooner rather than later.  Dan Uggla and Even Gattis are the same type of player; big time power but K’s to make Mark Reynolds (broke the single season strike out record…3 times) laugh.  Overall this team has a good amount of upside and just as much downside.  The big question is can they limit the K’s enough to make the lineup work; with players like the Upton’s, Gattis and Uggla being regulars I highly question this.

Washington Nationals:

Pitching-The strong kept being strong; this team has some of the best young arms in the game and a good amount of veterans to balance it out.  Steven Strausberg had a down year by his standards, which is to say he was fantastic but not to his liking.  Jordan Zimmerman is easily the most underrated pitching in baseball mainly because he’s surrounded by some of the most talented strikeout pitchers around and he is a pitch to contact and strikeouts when he can.  He wont win awards for his pitching but he is needed.  Gio Gonzalez also had a fine season and almost having 200 K’s with a 3.36 ERA is not bad, he still has control issues at times but he’s improving at a good rate.  Doug Fister is much like Zimmerman, not going to stand out but is going to get the job done and in the process make the team stronger.  The bullpen is quite deep as well; Rafael Soriano returns as the teams closer and looks to be solid as closer.  Drew Storen and Tyler Clippard add a lot of depth to this bullpen and can act as closers if the need arises.  Overall there is a lot of talent here and if I talked about each one in depth id be doing scouting reports on them.  The staff is strong but needs to keep focused and not let things get out of hand.  Last year was a bad year for them but picked it up at the end so they have to keep that focus to stay sharp.

Batting-Much like the staff they built this team with a lot of depth in mind.  Having 4 starting OF guys always helps and especially when it’s Jason Werth, Denard Spann, Nate McLouth and Bryce Harper.  The last of whom is easily one of the most talented hitters in the game, every year were going to be holding our breath till he finally breaks out and hits 40 HR’s, also he’s 21 so he has time.  Ryan Zimmerman is probably one of the more overrated 3B out there but that’s not to say he’s bad by any stretch.  Zimmerman is very solid defensively and a very strong bat but he’s no .300 hitter with 30 HR’s we used to tag him with.  Ian Desmond is that special breed of SS where he hits well enough to justify a .298-.305 OBP, personally I don’t think anything justifies this but I’m not a GM.  Though having a SS that is a 20 HR threat and can still hit .270 is a rare gift so you have to take the good with the bad I guess.  Wilson Ramos is quietly become one of baseball’s most dependable backstops, he hits well and is great with pitchers.  I expect this is the year we put him up there with guys like Rosario and McCann as one of the best in the game.  Overall this lineup has the basics covered but they have to stay consistent and lessen the K’s, last year there was a point where they had almost 30 to 1 K/BB ratio, which will lose way more games then win.  If they do this watch out, this is one of the deadlier lineups in the game.