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Season Outlook: Justin Masterson
With
all the talk going to big named stars like Jon Lester and Max Scherzer its not
to shocking to see pitchers like Justin Masterson slip through the cracks. Luckily he has been getting some
attention lately so him finding a team should be relativity easy for him. Masterson had a very up and down 2014
after having his statistically second best season of his career in 2013. It will be interesting to see which
Masterson shows up for the 2015 season and which teams are willing to take the
risks.
Justin
Masterson was drafted in 2006 to the Boston Red Sox with in the second round
with the 27 pick in the round. He
rose quickly through the system and was named one of the team’s best prospects
in 07. It only took till late 2008
for Masterson to see some action appearing in 36 games mostly out of the
pen. It wouldn’t be until his
trade to the Cleveland Indians in 2009 that he’d start to see some significant
time as a starter.
Masterson
had a pretty rough 2014 and it had some ups but mostly downs. We’ll start with the most worrying
issues for Masterson: an increase in hard hit average and an increase in
walks. The hard hit rate is
worrisome for more than the obvious reason you would think. Masterson’s line drive rate has been on
the rise since 2011 where he had an 18.2% taking a dip in 2013 to 17.8% and
hitting a career high in 2014 of 20.3%.
Interesting enough 2011 is when Masterson started to pitch as a starter
regularly and in the 2 years he was a bullpen pitcher he had a 15.1% average
line drive rate. The line drive
rate has been on the raise for a few years now but the HR/FB has been rather erratic. Using the same time frame as we did
with the line drive rate, 2011-2014, he’s had a HR/FB rate of 6.3%, 11.4%,
10.7%, and 14.6%. Averaging that
out we get roughly 10.75% HR/FB rate as a starter and that puts him about average
with the league average for the last 6 years.
Strenghts:
Masterson
has been a very solid strikeout pitcher throughout his career. He owns a 19.3% career strikeout rate
and averaging a K/9 of 7.53 both of which are very stable and above average. Despite last years hiccup Masterson has
had a rather stable HR/FB over his career averaging roughly 10.5% of his fly
balls making it over the fence and only allowing a 0.71 career HR/9. His velocity has been fairly consistent
throughout his career only having a drop of more than 2 MPH in velocity to his
fastball in 2014 and considering his age that could have been just a fluke.
Cons:
As
I’ve stated before the negative trends are alarming and numerous. The walks are coming more often and
have been on the rise since his days in Boston. While his strikeout numbers are fine he is getting hit more
often and that could be do to his control issues. If he falls behind he starts throwing over the plate and
that makes him hittable. Last
years rise in HR/FB rate is something to watch even if he’s trending down in
fly ball rate. When it comes to
consistency he has no benchmark and I have little confidence. He’s had just as many good years as bad
but they’re random and don’t follow a pattern making him a giant wildcard for
any staff.
Contracts:
It’s
hard to say what he will get since we have seen his productivity in 2014 is
down and many of his numbers are trending negatively. His last contract was a 1-year deal and $9.8 million and
while I don’t see him making that much it would be a starting point. If a team were willing to take a chance
on him a 2-year deal at $10 million would be a safe bet. Now this is in my perfect little world
and not what reality will have happen.
Teams that are interested will have to pay a little more to gain his
services. Masterson would want
some security with any deal he makes so a 3-4 year deal wouldn’t be out of the
question and as for money I can see it reaching somewhere near $15-25
million. Maybe that is overpaying
him but if a team wants him they’ll pay it.
Teams:
Baltimore Orioles: While the team has needs to fill that are more
important than signing Masterson but he is an option. He could fit will in Baltimore as well being a nice anchor
for a young team and a big field could cut down on the homeruns.
Boston Red Sox: Boston seems to be trying to gather its old players
back and Masterson could be a nice fit in a weakened rotation. Boston has spent a lot of money on
offense so far and they haven’t been really focused on adding arms for the
staff but much like Baltimore he would help a youngish team.
New York Yankees: They need pitching and need all the pitching they
can get. Not a great fit in that
stadium but that won’t stop the team trying to sign him.
Chicago White Sox: Chicago seems to be making a push to fill the
void that the Royals are going to leave.
More pitching will make a big difference for the team and Masterson
could get a larger contract from this team than others. White Sox are trying to build a winner
and this could make them overpay.
Cleveland Indians: Traded him away but that doesn’t mean he’d be a
bad fit. The main issue will be the
teams willing to pay the big contract that will be required.
Detroit Tigers: This team will always need pitching and with
Scherzer on the market and no guarantee on coming back Masterson can fill a
void. Not the void that will be
left by Scherzer’s leaving but he’s better than nothing. Team has money and considering the
struggles they’ve had with pitching they will be willing to spend.
Miami Marlins: I wouldn’t have considered this until the Stanton
signing and the trades they’ve been making. It could be the team is truly ready to step up its game and
make a run and a good veteran like Masterson could help. Not an ideal situation for Masterson
but if Miami pulls more money out of that hollowed out tree they have in the
everglades he’ll sign. Do you have
a better idea where they’re getting this money?
New York Mets: While offense is the major issue another strong
pitcher to help take pressure of Harvey and DeGrom will help. Masterson’s weaknesses could be easier
to manage in a big stadium like New York’s so it wouldn’t be a bad match.
Chicago Cubs: I’m still not counting this team out of anything and
with Theo Epstein, Masterson’s old GM, at the helm it could work. Not a good stadium for him at all but
again this could be a money thing for Masterson in the end.
Milwaukee Brewers:
Much like many teams on this list pitching is the major issue they have
and will need to fill it fast if they want to try and repeat what they did last
year. Well at least try to.
So
what does this really say about Justin Masterson? Well we can see that he has talent and can be a strong
option for teams looking for a good pitcher. But his negative trends make him a risky pick up for any
team looking for him.
