Second Half Predicatoins

Second Half Predications

            Well we’re half way done with the season and I felt that I wanted to take a look and give my predictions given what we’ve seen so far.

American League

East

1)   Baltimore Orioles

2)   Toronto Blue Jays

3)   New York Yankees

4)   Tampa Bay Rays

5)   Boston Red Sox

Baltimore isn’t the strongest team out there but they do have the best offense in the division, at least from a consistency point of view.  The pitching isn’t as strong especially with an injury to Ubaldo Jimenez.  The team does have a nice bunch of young arms coming up though and could very well help in the playoff hunt.  Toronto has so little starting pitching that the team just can’t really succeed long term.  They do have the best power offense in the division so they could still make a push for the playoffs but with so little pitching I can’t see it happening.  With the trade of David Price I just don’t see the Rays really being able to overcome their shortcomings this year.  New York and Boston has the same problem: old, hurt and ineffectiveness.  I don’t see how either make a push especially Boston who seems to have gone into sell mode.

Central:

1)   Detroit Tigers

2)   Kansas City Royals

3)   Cleveland Indians

4)   Chicago White Sox

5)   Minnesota Twins

            A weaker division that seems to be Detroit’s to lose and at least Detroit is trying to make that a hard thing to do.  Trading for Joakim Soria the team does address a major problem with the team in the bullpen.  Detroit still has issues staying consistent with the bats but any team that has Miguel Cabrera and Victor Martinez is in a good spot.  Kansas City could make a push but they suffer from the same issues as Detroit, inconsistency in both their pitching and hitting.  In fact Cleveland suffers from the same problem as well, they can’t seem to get the entire team to play well at the same time.  Chicago and Minnesota are not teams to watch this year but they have a bright future and these are going to be the teams to watch in 2-3 years.

West

1)   Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim

2)   Oakland Athletics

3)   Seattle Mariners

4)   Houston Astros

5)   Texas Rangers

            A little of a bold prediction but the Angels really do seem like the better team.  A stronger offense than the A’s and the pitching isn’t anything to turn your nose at.  The team has really gotten a boost from players like Mike Trout, Erik Aybar, Cole Kalhoun and Albert Pujols.  Trades for pitchers Joe Thatcher and Houston Street really bolsters the bullpen, a major weakness of the team.  Oakland does however have the better pitching overall and the offense is not so far behind LA that they will steamroll over them.  Seattle, Houston and Texas are really non-factors in this division.

Wild Cards: Oakland A’s, Toronto Blue Jays

National League

East

1)   Washington Nationals

2)   Atlanta Braves

3)   New York Mets

4)   Miami Marlins

5)   Philadelphia Phillies

            This is really a two-team race between Washington and Atlanta and for the most part it’s going to be a duel.  I do see Atlanta giving the first signs of wearing down since the team was built on pitching and the pitching has lacked this year due to injuries and lack of production.  Washington hasn’t escaped the injuries either losing players like Jordan and Ryan Zimmerman.  In the end the offense of the National’s should come out on top.  New York I think has surprised many people this year and really shown that they’re a better team than we thought.  They may not be a contending team for a few years but they’re a lot closer than we gave credit.  Losing Jose Fernandez to Tommy John surgery really took all the wind out of Miami’s sails but the team is very similar to the Mets, we didn’t give them enough credit.  In the end though were all just waiting for the ownership to just trade them away.  The Phillies are just bad and that’s not changing soon.

Central

1)   Pittsburgh Pirates

2)   St. Louis Cardinals

3)   Milwaukee Brewers

4)   Cincinnati Reds

5)   Chicago Cubs

            While they failed to do anything significant during the trade deadline they still have a very strong team.  Well they have an above average team all around and I think they’re capitalizing at the weakness of their division.  St. Louis made all the major trades this deadline and could bounce back with youth and pitching leading the way.  If the offense can turn it up this is still the team to beat.  Milwaukee was a fun story but the truth is shinning through now: pitching issues, inconsistent hitting, and defense is suspect.  Milwaukee is showing that it can be a star team but maybe not this year.  Cinci has just had so many issues staying healthy and for a team well known for its power hitters they’ve had little to no run production from them.  Next year should be better when the team is healthy and as long as Cueto keeps this up the team can bounce back.  Chicago is the definition of a team with a bright future but this year it’s just another cloudy day.

West:

1)   Los Angeles Dodgers

2)   San Francisco Giants

3)   San Diego Padres

4)   Arizona Diamondbacks

5)   Colorado Rockies

            Besides the Dodgers and Giants the rest of this division is a non-factor so I’m not even going to bother.  The Dodgers are easily one of the most dangerous teams in baseball with a potentially explosive offense and a great starting rotation.  The problem is consistent hitting and a weak pen.  For a team with Kenly Jensen and Brain Wilson the pen can either be lights out or can give up the game in 2 pitches.  The Giants aren’t really any better off but they’re just as good as the Dodgers just not as hyped.  The Giants took a few hits this year in the starting rotation but they’ve managed to keep their heads above water and should be able to make a fight of their division.

Wild Cards: St Louis Cardinals and San Francisco Giants.

Understanding the Math

Understanding the Math

            If you’ve read any of my work from to this point then you’ve probably noticed that I like sabermetric stats and love to using them to explain players and teams.  To this point I really haven’t explained the stats that I use so it seems like a good time to start.  Today we’re going to start with the basics and move up to the more complicated stats, the goal of these will to educate people that don’t really know the stats and to let you be able to calculate them yourself.  Today we’ll start with the most basic stats: the slash line.

Batting Average

AVG: H/AB

            One of the most common stats people look at and gauge a players value.  To me and many other staticians out there this is the worst stat to gauge a player on since it leaves out so many variables.  Example: If a player has a .290 AVG and gets a sac-fly his AVG is still .290 but he made an out.  Likewise BA puts all hits on an equal playing field.  To BA a single is just as valuable as a triple or home run, that just isn’t true what so ever.  It is a fine enough stat to just look at as a quick “oh how’s this guy doing” but there are better stats to actually gauge how he’s doing.

On-Base-Percentage

OBP=H+BB+HBP/AB+BB+HBP+SF

            Very commonly referred to as the “Moneyball” stat since it was the main stat used by Billy Beane.  OBP is a far better gauge of a player’s abilities since getting on base is by far one of the best skills a hitter can have.  Though much like AVG this has some flaws.  OBP values every hit as equals just like AVG does all it does differently is add walks and other stats that have to do with getting on base.  The walks are the big thing since a good OBP tends to come from guys that can take a walk often enough.

Slugging

SLG=(Singles+(2*Doubles)+(3*Triples)+(4*HR))/AB

            Commonly looked at as the “Power” stat but in reality it takes the total number of bases and divides it by the number of at-bats.  For what it does it does it well and shows a pretty decent look at a players ability to round the bases.  Again this stat doesn’t tell the full story and is not the perfect stat to gauge a player.  It doesn’t take things like walks into account and things like sacrifices hurt your SLG overall.

Averages of the last 5 years

	AVG	OBP	SLG
2013	.253	.318	.396
2012	.255	.319	.405
2011	.255	.321	.399
2010	.257	.323	.403
2009	.263	.333	.418
Total	.257	.323	.404

            Here’s the list of the last 5 years averages of AVG/OBP/SLG just to help you get a picture of what the average is.  As you can see there’s been a pretty steady decline in the 3 stats since 2009 and that doesn’t seem like it’s going to change any time soon but the reasons for that lie in other stats that I’ll cover later on.  For now this is just a quick look to see the trend and to see what the average looks like.

            With all that I’ve said there was one point I kept bringing up, each stat had a flaw and didn’t tell the full story.  Even OBP, which I do like a lot and I value more than both AVG and SLG, had flaws and didn’t give the full story.  Here’s the surprise of the article there is no ONE stat that gives the full story.  Stats run best when you use more stats to get a bigger picture.  AVG/OBP/SLG have flaws when you use one solo but when you use all three to get the picture then it becomes much clearer.

From Zero to Hero: Dee Gordon

From Zero to Hero: Dee Gordon

            This last offseason all we heard about was what would happen to the Dodgers if Alex Guerrero couldn’t field 2B.  It was a big enough issue that the Dodgers started to look out of house for anyone selling a 2B that they could slot into the position.  In the end they were left with failed SS prospect Dee Gordon to man 2B.  Gordon, who had been in the minors for a better part of a year, took to the role and ran with it quite literally as he is currently up to 43 SB and just named to the NL All Star team.  So what changed in a guy that would strikeout 20% of the time last season?  Well lets take a look.

	BB%	K%	SB	wSB	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	wOBA	wRC+
2014	6.9%	15.3%	43	4.8	.292	.344	.398	.742	.106	.344	.329	112
2013	9.4%	19.8%	10	1.1	.234	.314	.298	.612	.064	.292	.273	73
Career	6.0%	16.0%	109	9.8	.269	.317	.344	.661	.074	.321	.294	87

            So what changed that made Gordon an All Star caliber player?  Well first thing we notice is that he’s not striking out as much with is a big plus for a guy that relies on speed to do his damage.  While the lowed BB% should be a concern as long as he can keep the ball in play then his speed is going to make things difficult enough for the opponent’s defense.  Now the second thing of note is the rise in his slash line across the board.  It’s impressive but there is some red flags here and the first is the rise in OBP.  For a guy that isn’t walking much the .344 seems a bit high but I think this is do to the higher BABIP.  High BABIP’s tend to be a warning sign for most players but with Gordon I’m actually a believer that this can be sustained.  Faster players tend to have a higher BABIP since they can beat out players that slower players can’t hence the higher BABIP.  No matter what I would feel hard pressed to look at these stats and not raise an eyebrow, I think we need to see some more stats to see if there is some evidence or warning signs in the numbers.

Splits

	BB%	K%	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	wOBA	wRC+
LHP	6.1%	9.8%	.276	.329	.355	.685	.079	.309	.307	97
RHP	7.1%	16.7%	.297	.347	.410	.757	.113	.355	.334	116

            It’s not to surprising that Gordon’s hitting worse against LHP since he’s a lefty himself but it is impressive that he’s actually hitting fairly well against them.  I didn’t really expect Gordon to be hitting this well against LHP and in the end not really hurting his team against them.  This doesn’t really tell give us any answers to the questions were asking but at the same time props to him for being able to hit consistently above average against LHP and RHP alike.

Batted Balls

	GB/FB	GB%	FB%	LD%
2014	2.81	58.2%	20.7%	21.1%
2013	1.63	49.2%	30.2%	20.6%
Career	2.64	57.1%	21.6%	21.3%

            Now we have something that we can work with.  Since last year Gordon has greatly increased his GB% and decreased his FB% by that same amount.  The LD% is the same but that isn’t Gordon’s game since he’s a speed guy.  The lowering of the FB% means he’s given more chances to run out a ball and beat the throws that a FB wouldn’t allow him to do.  Getting the ball on the ground and finding the holes is how a player like Gordon needs to play the game and it adds more context to the numbers we saw earlier.  A change like this would defiantly have an impact on his overall numbers.

PITCHf/x Plate Discipline

	O-Swing	Z-Swing	Swing%	O-Contact	Z-Contact	Contact%
2014	32.7%	52.0%	42.7%	82.1%	92.6%	88.8%
2013	32.8%	53.1%	43.3%	81.4%	92.5%	87.7%
Career	35.4%	58.5%	45.5%	80.8%	92.2%	87.8%

            While at first glance there doesn’t really seem to be much change in his game from last year but there are changes.  Notice that his Swing% overall is down but his Contact% is going up even if its just a point it’s a trend you want to see from a contact/speed guy.  Gordon is choosing better to pitches to swing at and therefore making better contact.

Hot/Cold Charts

Swing%

4%(23)	15%(27)	34%(32)	14%(14)	0%(3)
5%(39)	42%(64)	63%(80)	54%(57)	21%(14)
23%(81)	48%(128)	52%(147)	57%(81)	22%(32)
35%(63)	55%(106)	59%(136)	50%(64)	14%(21)
32%(34)	36%(69)	41%(82)	38%(61)	19%(31)

Contact%

0%(1)	100%(4)	82%(11)	50%(2)	0%(0)
100%(2)	89%(27)	92%(50)	94%(31)	100%(3)
84%(19)	94%(62)	96%(77)	91%(46)	71%(7)
100%(2)	97%(58)	86%(80)	88%(32)	67%(3)
82%(11)	84%(25)	82%(34)	65%(23)	17%(6)

            One nice thing about Gordon is he’s making a lot of contact in the zone having nothing below 86% is a solid line to have.  Better yet he’s making some of his best contact in the bottom of the zone even making contact at a good rate at the down and away pitches.  His swing% seems to in line with what we discovered in his O-Swing and Z-Swing% and he’s actually being pretty selective and taking pitches more often than he was last year.

            So did we answer the question that is Dee Gordon?  Well we’ve seen where he’s improved and it seems to be in his GB% and he’s limiting his swings, which is a good sign.  Can he keep it up is the big question and from what we’ve seen I think that he has a good chance to keep being productive but at the same point I’m not confident a .290 average is in his future.  There is a good chance he ends this season batting .275 or so but if he keeps up the good OBP and keeps stealing as he is then it doesn’t look like that BA drop should matter, or at least it won’t until Alex Guerrero is ready