Monday, January 12, 2015

Fighting the Good Fight: the Draft


            Last time we talked about getting you ready for the draft and now its time to talk actual strategies for the draft itself.  The draft isn’t something to be taken lightly and has broken more friendships than a game of Mario Party…that’s still a thing right?  If you go into a draft under prepared than it could mean the end of you season right off the bat.  What this article will do is point out a few good and popular strategies that you can employ during the draft and some traps to avoid as well.
Know the position: Did you read my last article and the importance of the mock draft? No?  Well this is going to be a tough issue for you isn’t it.  Half hearted mocks and plugs aside you really do need to know what players could possibly be available to you before the draft even begins.  Mock drafts allow you to draft from any position in the draft and doing so will show you which players will be available if you were to land in that position.  The players you see on the board with the second pick wont be the same as the ones you see with the forth or fifth so you need to practice to set up a basic idea on where your strategy goes from there.
Make the safest first pick: “You can’t win the league with the first pick but you can certainly lose it.”  These are very strong and smart words from fantasy experts Matthew Berry and Nate Ravitz that describe better than I could have.  That first pick needs to be consistent and a sure fire thing to make the first round and its no place to take a risk.  Now every player comes with inherit risks but you try to limit it as best as possible by picking players like Miguel Cabrera and Mike Trout and not guys like Bryce Harper and Javier Baez.  While the upside of Harper and Baez are high the risk of them not meeting expectations is far higher than Trout and Cabrera not meeting their respective potential.  This is why it’s important to pay attention to mock drafts and see whom goes where so you can plan around it.
Pick from the Head no the Heart: Everyone has a favorite baseball player and sure we all would love to have him on our team, well expect me since mine is retired.  But lets face facts that someone like Adrian Gonzalez isn’t a first round guy.  Playing with your heart means you choose players out of position just because you like them.  Sometimes this is fine if you pick them right but most of the time, at least from what I’ve seen and experienced, people tend to look at that pick later and wonder what they were thinking.
Know your league mates and exploit: This is a very underhanded and weasely tactic and that’s why I say do it!  This only works when you know there’s a special player a league mate wants or that he tends to pick players from a specific team, likely his or her favorite team.  Knowing this actually can give you an advantage in making future moves or making moves that can work for you in the future.  In some cases you can even punish a person for being to blind to fandom.  Short story time: I was in a fantasy football league with an auction draft (something I’ll be getting to in a second) and the budget was two hundred dollars.  In the first round the third pick went to a well-known Packers fan and he selected Aaron Rodgers for thirty dollars or so.  There was one person in the league that decided to make him pay for Rodgers and up bided him all the way to eighty dollars before letting him have Rodgers.  That was almost half his budget on his first player making the rest of the team very weak.  Remember that you can fall prey to this as well so be very cautious.
Set a limit (auction drafts only): Before a draft every player is given a dollar value and that lists the recommended buying price of a player.  Now it can happen but it is rare that a price for a good player ends right at that recommended total.  It’s a very good idea to consider what your willing to spend on any player in general but especially early in the draft.  If you spend high early you get many strong single players but weaker players later.  On the flip side you save on the early rounds you lose those key players that can help dominate a league but have a stronger overall team.  Setting your budget early can prevent you from, oh say, spending $80 dollars when you only have $200.
Keep track of you positions: Imagine this scenario: You’re near the end of the draft and you’re picking you sleepers and bench players.  You fill in the last bench spot and think “Well my teams all done,” but then you noticed there’s still one round left to draft.  You look at your team confused and then you see it, you forgot to draft a catcher.  Now with the last pick in your draft you have to pick from players like Nick Hundley, Tyler Flowers, Ryan Hanigan and Francisco Cervelli as your starter.  It happens and it’s defiantly something to watch for when you’re drafting your team this year.  You may get enticed by having multiple stars on your team when they fall to you, something that you should capitalize on, but it can’t come at the cost of other positions.
Resist the reach: This is the hardest thing to do in a draft.  Resisting that urge to grab a particular player before someone else gets him even though if you do your passing on players more worth said pick.  This is the hardest to avoid when you see a player coming up in the draft and it’s a position that not only you need filled but is a shallow position*.  The way to combat that feeling to reach is to remember that there are always more players after him that are just as good and just wait for them.
*Shallow position refers to any position that doesn’t have a depth and the number of good players in that position is very low.  An example would be the outfield as a surplus of speedy players but is very shallow in power hitters making them a premium position over other outfielders.
Remember the end game: The end of the draft doesn’t mean you can relax.  Look at your team and see what you could improve with a trade or two if necessary later on down the road.  Look for your best chips and come up with potential trades.  Look at the waiver wire, yes the draft just ended but you may have missed someone during the draft that you really wanted or was overlooked by everyone.  You’d be surprised how many sleeper options are left on the board.
Corner the market: What do I mean by cornering the market?  The strategy revolves around grabbing multiples players from a shallower position and rostering them.  This will make it so if people what to fill that positional void they have the owner will likely come to you first for trades since you have a spare player.  Example: say you draft Miguel Cabrera in the first round and two rounds later you draft someone like Prince Fielder.  While you already have a first baseman you know have a strong corner infield position filled with a top end player.  If you never trade either you still have Fielder and Cabrera leading your offense and if you do end up trading one you get a big haul and possibly are able to fill your positional gaps with players from that trade.  Don’t try this for multiple positions or you may end up regretting it.

            Now that the draft is over you get to start the real fun and do whatever it takes, within the rules of course since no one likes a cheater, to bring home that metaphorical title belt.  Or a real belt depending on some leagues, I’ve even heard some leagues use a trophy of a chicken for the championship trophy.  Next time we’ll take a look at some keeper strategies because that alone needs its own article to go over.

Before the Draft


            With Spring Training just around the corner its almost time for the most important time in baseball, fantasy draft day!  Yes fantasy baseball is one of many things that gets me excited me for the baseball season and one of the most intense times of the entire fantasy league is the draft.  The draft is possibly the single most important time of the year for fantasy players since this is what’s going to shape your year and give you sleepless nights thinking “if only I was able to get Kris Medlen in the 10th.”  While I plan on give my personal rankings position by position I think it’s prudent to start any fantasy article by throwing ideas and hints for those new to fantasy baseball.  These are things that I have learned in the 7 years of play and taking my many lumps making the mistakes or getting lucky and coming out on top.
Pick a league: I’m going to start by saying that many of my suggestions are things you’ll first go “no duh you moron!”  So after reading the name hear me out and let me explain what I mean.  Fantasy leagues come in all shapes and sizes and it’s very important to know what kind of league your comfortable with.  The smaller the league the more “stacked” the league is going to be and it will to have a team full of star players.  On the other hand a 12 or 14 team league is going to test your skill since players will be taken earlier and the addition to 2 to 4 teams means more players will be gone in the end of the draft changing the value of certain players.  For new players I suggest sticking to a 10-team league since it’s considered the standard sized league and it gives a good balance of challenge.
Know the stats: This is linked to picking a league since it’s the determining factor on who and how you draft.  The most basic fantasy league is a 10-team 5x5 league where the 10 stats are split evenly between batting and pitching.  Batting average, homeruns, runs, RBI’s, and stolen bases for batting and pitching’s you have ERA, WHIP, strikeouts, saves, and wins.  For new players this is the stats you should go for since they’re the easier to find and easiest to draft for.  More advanced leagues do change the stats you play for and it changes how you draft and play.  For example I play all my leagues in that same 5x5 style but I don’t use batting average I use OBP. How does this change the draft you ask?  Well for starters it makes the middle picks and end picks drastically different from what you’d see on cheat sheets, something we’ll be covering shortly, and makes the value of players change.  Adam Dunn was always a go person to look at in an OBP league since his .220 batting average always made him a liability but his .330-.340 OBP made him one of the more underrated players in the game.
Pick your team name: This is a silly yet fun part of fantasy since it’s going to become how your league is going to refer to you during the season.  Have fun with it and make something clever.  Me I like to show off my thoughts of the Astros in my team name calling myself the Depressed Astros Fan and depending on the level of confidence in my team I add a word to describe it.  Last year I was the Slightly Less Depressed Astros Fan since I liked the team more than I had previously…but in the end I’m still and Astros fan.  What?  Did you think everything on this list had to be serious?  You can stress over the season when it comes up so might as well have some fun now.
Come in with a strategy: Ok back to being serious and lets talk about getting a strategy down.  For the causal fan this isn’t going to be an issue since they’re likely to pick their favorite players early and just wing the rest of the draft.  More serious players come in with a plan on not just who but when they’re going to draft.  This comes with experience and it comes with practice.  Another thing to consider is the strength and depth of talent in any one position since that will give you an idea of who important it is to draft that position.  While no plan will survive contact with the enemy its best to know what stats your gunning for early and instead of drafting for players draft for numbers and players you are certain will get you there.
Mock Drafts are your friend: So how do players who aren’t experienced in fantasy drafts get an idea of how to draft and who to draft or just when to draft what position?  Sort answer is mock drafts and you do a lot of them.  Besides being fun, I do my fair share of them just to see how I would do and to try out other ideas; it gives you a great idea of how the draft will play out.  Mock drafts are where you put plans and strategies into motion and see how they fair against other players that have their own ideas and plans.  You’ll be surprised on how often your plans will go a stray because someone drafts out of slot, drafting a player out of the expected position, and your stuck scrambling to get your picks back in order.  Since there’s no penalty to mock drafts you can learn from mistakes and see how your plan worked.  Tweak it and start planning for those times that it went wrong.
Make a cheat sheet/pre-draft rankings: Now this is the first one that I don’t find super important since in the end of the day places like ESPN and Yahoo already set their draft board set to their rankings and your welcome to use that.  But a cheat sheet can be important for keeping an eye on players your trying to keep secret or just to help track everything that happens in the draft.  The option that I choose is to go to the editing section of the pre-draft section and make your own rankings.  While this is time consuming and can be confusing when you see a player you hate go above someone you love since you ranked them differently than ESPN did it is a good way to track the players YOU want.  This works very well when your down on players since they wont show up on your board and other players will draft them so there’s no mistakes, trust me I’ve seen it happen.  This also works well for players your high on and want to take early; this is closer to the end of the draft since this is where you’ll grab your sleepers and other players you don’t expect to get drafted.

            I think we’ve covered the basics of getting ready for your fantasy draft.  Next time we’ll discuss the actual strategies to look for and ones that are commonly employed.  As for now I’d like to hear your team names and names you’ve had in the past.  Maybe next time I’ll post them in the article: funny ones, serious ones, clever ones I like them all so lets see them in the comments!