Scouting Report: Jose Fernandez

Scouting Report: Jose Fernandez

            So far all we’ve seen is on my scouting reports are hitters, today we look at one of the games best young pitchers Jose Fernandez.  Fernandez was drafted in 2011 and already is in the majors at the age of 21 and quickly made a name for himself as being a very talented pitcher that can handle the majors just fine.  The hardest part of looking at Fernandez is simple; we don’t have a lot of info on him as a player since he’s only played 2 full seasons and only 1 in the majors so what we can do is look at the numbers and using averages figure out how sustainable are the numbers he’s put up.  Lets take a look and see what this guy did this season.

            The first thing we can look at is his K/9, BB/9 and K/BB ratios to see how good he is.  Fernandez has a K/9 of 9.75 this means he’s striking out a little more than 1 batter an inning, which is amazing!  For reference the highest K/9 rate in for a single season is 13.5 by Randy Johnson, Fernandez ranks 81 on the all time single season chart (out of qualifying pitchers).  This is great for his future but I don’t see how he keeps that level of production up at least at that level, he may be a 9 K’s per 9 guy but for now I think we should see how next year turns out.  Fernandez also has a BB/9 rate of 3.0, this is kind of one of the reasons I worry.  Its average but that is still a few to many BB’s for a pitcher to give up and could end up biting in the future.  Much like the K/9 rate id still want to hold off on judgment of future, he is still young enough that he can fine tune his aim and his talent is there to easily do this.  His K/BB is impressive but if he didn’t walk so many hitters it would be better; having a 3.22 is still nothing to shake a stick at but once he gets his BB’s down that should be a 8.0, he has that potential.  One good thing to note is that his H/9 or hits per 9 is .52 meaning he gave up less than 1 hit per inning, which is very impressive.

            Next lets see how he’s doing in ERA, WHIP and FIP.  First lets see his WHIP since it ties into what we’ve talked about, he ends the season at .98 WHIP and that’s very good.  Less than a hit or BB an inning is how you win games and if he were on any other team this alone would have won games for any team.  But since we’ve already gone into this last paragraph there’s less to say really, his big problem is the BB but if he lowers that and can keep the hits down this could be were his WHIP stays.

            ERA is a funny stat, while still relevant its not the best measure of a pitchers worth or value.  There is a reason you always here me mention ERA and FIP normally right after each other because ERA doesn’t really just include the pitchers skill but his defense as well.  FIP is a stat that gauges the pitchers skill better since it only looks at the things the pitcher has direct control over.  So knowing this lets take a look.  Fernandez finished the season with an ERA of 2.19, very good a well above average ERA especially for a starter.  His ability to keep the ball down and keep hitters from getting good lift on the ball limits the HR’s.  His ERA- is 59 meaning he’s in the top 50% of pitchers in ERA this year.  His FIP whoever says something else and this is where we see those pesky BB’s come into play.  His FIP is 2.79; a full 70 points higher than his ERA and while normal that is something to wonder about.  Remember FIP is what a pitchers ERA would be based on his influence so that means he pitched at a 2.79 ERA level, and this is nothing to complain about.  Yes I sound negative but I’m just pointing out how those BB’s have effects that you don’t normally see.  In the end I see this staying near the levels but his ERA will come up I can see him pitching closer to a 2.40-2.60 level but that FIP doesn’t seem to far off from the truth.

            Now this was my first pitcher scouting report and it may not have been smart to choose a rookie that doesn’t have a background to compare to, why did I do it then?  Simply put he needs to be more recognized than he is, I know you heard about him during the season but he’s going to be one of the best pitchers in baseball very soon and we all need to watch this guy.  Next time I do a pitcher I’ll be looking at more like pitches and GB%, FB% and such but Fernandez is to new to see if this is the normal guy.

Power Ranking: September 18th

Power Rankings: September 18^th

1.     Boston Red Sox

2.     Oakland A’s

3.     Detroit Tigers

4.     St. Louis Cardinals

5.     Atlanta Braves

6.     Los Angeles Dodgers

7.     Cincinnati Reds

8.     Cleveland Indians

9.     Pittsburgh Pirates

10. Kansas City Royals

This is a very tough week because so many teams are doing well but may not have much of a play in the playoffs; Angels, Nationals, Padres and Giants had very solid weeks and have been messing with teams that are trying for the playoffs.  The biggest change to the rankings this time is 2 teams are missing.  The Rangers and Rays have both had just terrible weeks and not just weeks but the Rangers have had such a terrible month that I don’t think they’re making the playoffs this year.  The Rays have managed to pick it up in the last few days of the weeks but they’re close to missing the playoffs too.  The Royals and Indians are making such strong pushes right now that one of these two has a strong chance to make the playoffs knocking out the Rangers.  The other thing that should be noted is how strong the A’s look right now and they’re primed to run away with the division.

Bottom 5:

            26. Chicago White Sox

            27. Chicago Cubs

            28. New York Mets

            29. Houston Astros

            30. Miami Marlins

Really no surprises here, though as a personal note the Astros may be losing but have actually been one of the better teams with RISP and the pitching has been pretty good.  A good team is a few years away.

Fantasy Finals Hints

Fantasy Finals Hints

            Were coming down to the last 2 weeks of the season before the playoffs begin for MLB.  But if your like me your fighting for your own championship in a fantasy league or two.  So as a quick little blog post lets talk a little strategy for fantasy league finals.  There is not order to these hints it’s just my opinion and this isn’t a list of things that you have to do.

·      Figure out your keepers: Ok so this one is specific to keeper leagues but right now is a good time to finalize your picks.  Figure out, or just take your best guess, if the player you plan on keeping has had value growth or you just know if you threw him back to the draft you’d lose him.  This is a big deal for players like Jose Fernandez and Matt Carpenter, guys whose value is better than he was drafted last draft.

·      Pay attention to your injuries: This is something that someone can miss or just not notice.  At this point in the finals injuries can bog you down horribly.  Example: in my main league I pay attention to I have Carlos Gonzalez, David Wright, Allen Craig and Brett Gardner all are injured.  This is a tough spot since only 1 is on the DL the rest you need to watch and adjust.

·      Watch your roster spots: This is linked to the above point where if you have to many injuries you may need to make a super tough choice.  In the league I mentioned I just dropped CarGo to pick up someone to fill in the spot I needed.  It’s a massive gamble; while he’s not scheduled to come back but if he does come back I just dropped a power piece.  But if you need the spot and they’re not coming back don’t be afraid to drop these guys.  Don’t be afraid to drop anyone if you’re in the running to win now.

·      Spot Starts for the win: Play the numbers and watch the match ups to try and give your team the best chance to win.  Have a guy just pitch and you see a favorable match up?  Pick him up and look for the next guy to stream.  This doesn’t mean drop everyone but this is a good strategy to use if you’re losing in some Pitching stats.

·      Watch your opponent’s: In Roto or Head to Head leagues always keep an eye on what your opponent is trying to do.  If you see him making moves to win a stat that’s close you may need to change up your own strategy to counter that attempt.  Never hurts to keep your enemies close.

·      Know the rules: Yes this one seems like a no brainer but it happens.  Last year my dad and I were in a situation where we were tied and we both assumed the tiebreaker was ERA like in other leagues we had been in before.  At the end of the week we stayed tied but my dad had won ERA so we both assumed he was the winner, the next day we looked and I had won and we didn’t find out why till this years playoffs.  Moral is don’t assume the rules know the rules so you don’t end up the fool like my dad.

Well hopefully this helps many of you out there that are in the heat of the playoffs.  One last thing I’ll suggest; be a good sport.  Don’t be that guy that guy that complains after losing because the other team beating you for one reason or another.  If you win, win with grace and if you lose, lose with dignity.  There’s no reason to make the person who wins feel bad for winning and take away what they just did because you got upset or things didn’t go your way.

My Lineup: Arizona Diamondbacks

My Lineup: Arizona Diamondbacks

            With all the talk the last few days about the Dbacks having problems with Kurt Gibson’s ability to make a line up I decided to try something new.  Using sabermetric stats (and not looking at the current “lineup”) I want to make what I feel is an optimized lineup using saber stats.  I plan to use different stats to compliment the players depending on where they fall in the lineup.  An example would be the difference from the person batting 3^rd to the person batting 7^th.  You don’t need a good SLG and or GPA in the 7^th spot but a good OBP and contact rate is important to both.  So with that lets take a look at what I would have the lineup at with the Arizona Diamondbacks.

1)   Martin Prado-LF

2)   Aaron Hill-2B

3)   Eric Chavez-3B

4)   Paul Goldschmidt-1B

5)   Adam Eaton-CF

6)   Miguel Montero-C

7)   Gerardo Parra-RF

8)   Didi Gregorious-SS

9)   Pitcher

I like this lineup personally and I see it having a lot of potential, well at least in the font of the lineup.  The team doesn’t have many power threats beyond Goldschmidt and Hill so making a lineup that can stay a threat was a little tough but I think I like this.  So lets look at what I did.  The team normally has Parra leading off but looking at the stats I noticed that Prado not only has a better AVG and OBP which I like in a lead off hitter but he has a better swing %, contact %, BB% and K%.  It goes without saying that his BB/K is also better making Prado a much better option to Parra.  The only downside is Prado isn’t a base stealer, though that doesn’t make him a bad base runner just not a stealer.  I put Hill batting second under the theory that you want your best hitter should bat 1^st, 2^nd and 4^th.  But Hill is one of the team leaders in HR’s, SLG, OBP, AVG and RC.  Him being in the 2 hole will help create and score runs for the team that no one else can.  Eric Chavez is the oddest choice; an older player that does have power but the injury risk makes him a hard choice to back up.  But here’s the thing about Chavez, he’s still one of the better contact hitters on the team.  He’s got an 84% contact rate the ability to hit .290 easy.  Goldschmidt is obviously the best fit for the clean up spot.  The hard part after Goldschmidt is like I mentioned earlier, very few good OPS guys after the top 4.  Eaton is good as a contact hitter an will develop power later on but for now he’s got a 15 HR guy at most.  The only player that has a good chance to improve his chances is Miguel Montero who is having a bad season so far but can easily hit for better power and AVG than he is now.

            Well there it is, let me know what you think.

Power Rankings: September 4th

Power Rankings: September 4th

1)   Atlanta Braves

2)   Boston Red Sox

3)   Detroit Tigers

4)   LA Dodgers

5)   St. Louis Cardinals

6)   Pittsburg Pirates

7)   Texas Rangers

8)   Cincinnati Reds

9)   Oakland Athletics

10)         Tampa Bay Rays

Things are starting to get tight in baseball know that the playoffs are less then a month away and were not seeing much change has accrued.  That said that doesn’t mean every team is in the clear.  The Tampa Bay Rays, in the last 2 weeks, has a record of 4-10.  That’s a problem for the Rays to slump this late in the season with teams like the Kansas City Royals, Cleveland Indians, and New York Yankees not that far behind them.  The Pittsburgh Pirates is another team that has to worry some when they have a 7-6 record in the last 2 weeks but a very poor .228 RISP in that time.  While the Atlanta Braves don’t have many things to worry about the Reds/Cardinals/Pirates do need to watch their backs since the Washington Nationals have been amazing.  10-4 in the last 2 weeks and with a team stat line of .302/.368/.481 makes them look dangerous.  The wild card could be very interesting to watch.  Now to the part everyone loves, our Bottom 5.

Bottom 5

            26) Chicago White Sox

            27) New York Mets

            28) Milwaukee Brewers

            29) Houston Astros

            30) Miami Marlins

Really no surprises but there are more teams that could have made this list.  The Seattle Mariners inched out the Chicago White Sox barely and I still wonder if they deserved it more than the New York Mets.  The one change that you can see is the Houston Astros are 29^th now over the Miami Marlins; mainly since the team has been doing decently and the Marlins have been so terrible this last few weeks.