The Problem of Puig

My dad and I had a conversation a few days ago where I asked him “So where do you think Puig ends the season?”  My dad is not a major stats person like myself but he does pay attention and his answer was “Bout a .330 AVG with maybe 25 plus HR’s.”  My reply was simply “Ok, I think he’ll end the season closer to .287 AVG and the max HR’s is around 20-23.”  He looked at me quizzically and simply said “Really?!?”  After this conversation it makes me think on how many players like Puig have come up this season, not players with similar talent pools but players that don’t have a real track record so far in the minors and from a statistical point of view have no real info on.  When I look at stats I look for players with a good enough track record to get an idea on how he will play in the majors but players like Puig, Kevin Gausman, Mike Trout and Bryce Harper all had very little time in the minors but were brought up very quickly to the majors to see how they do.  The four players I just mentioned were in the majors 1 year or less after begin drafted.

            When I look at young prospects I tend to look for the stats they produced in the lower level.  This doesn’t tell me everything but it does give me an idea about what I can expect moving forward and depending on his play through the ranks I get a better idea how he will do in the higher divisions.  Puig had half a season in the minors and the Dominican Republic doesn’t really make the stats well known so what do we get to go off of?  Pretty much what we see is what we get, its kind of why I feel both statistical analysis and traditional scouting are both needed to get a hold of a player since with no info numbers wise we go off what we see.  I call this a “problem” only because I see it leading to many problems in the future with players.  Gausman so far looks over-matched in the majors and he’s a product of this same idea.

            The end goal is to get lucky with your best prospects, we’ve seen this with Evan Longoria, Anthony Rizzo and others that do well or well enough to justify a massive contract (years wise not money) to lock them up and keep them cheap.  I fear that at some point this is going to blow up in a teams face sadly.  But for now us stat guys will just have to work with that data we have till there’s enough of a sample size to make guesses and see how these young players end up.

Power Rankings June 26

            Its that time of the month when we look at the Power Rankings.  There are going to be some shake ups this week but some are coming way late, some of the changes in the list may have applied to the rankings last time just as much as this weeks rankings.  So here we go.

1)   St. Louis Cardinals- With the best record in baseball they still are my (new) pick to win the WS in the end.  The pitching has been great for them so far with a team ERA of 3.23 and a strong stat line in the last 2 weeks shows that the team is not giving up many runs but can sure still score them.

2)   Boston Red Sox- With the lose of Buchholz I worry how long that rotation can stand but so far so good.  The bullpen needs to improve with Bailey failing to live up to the contract and losing his closer role, most likely for good.  But with Ellsbury running the way he is and the offense still going strong I can see them winning a lot of games with need of a closer.

3)   Atlanta Braves- They still scare me with the K% and K/BB% being on the bad side but they survive.  The pitching is keeping them afloat right now but 1 injury could mean bad times in Atlanta.

4)   Baltimore Orioles- Still staying in there and still making it close for Boston.  I expect them to be in the hunt till the end and as long as Chris Davis doesn’t suddenly revert back to the .250 hitter they should be good.

5)   Texas Rangers- I’ve mentioned this on the Podcast but I can understand what’s happening here.  No stat seems to explain what’s wrong with this team in the last month.  They can take BB’s but can’t hit but when they do its for good power?  Then again the pitching is so bad right now that could be the leading cause of headache for the team.

6)   Cincinnati Reds- Still believe that they’re better than what we’re seeing at the moment.  If any team is going to take down the Cardinals it’s this team, just ignore the fact that there in 3^rd.

7)   Detroit Tigers- That bullpen still scares me and with it still struggling they could very well pitch themselves out of a lot of wins.  Hitting wise I can’t see them getting much better, but I’m sure they’d love to prove me wrong.

8)   Arizona Diamondbacks- They’re good, very good and could take the division easily.  They have a lot of things going for them right now but they have a good team under them that can jump on their every mistake.  They need to play well the rest of the way to make the Giants disappear.

9)   Oakland A’s- The pitching is legit and once again that when the numbers game is played Billy Beane knows what he’s doing.  If only I could say that about the offense as well; they are the streakiest of the streaky and that could end up biting them.  It doesn’t help that the Rangers are still around and if they start hitting again the A’s could be in for a battle.  I should note that just because I have them listed here doesn’t mean that I don’t think they can beat the Rangers.  They did it once they can do it again.

10)          Toronto Blue Jays- Yes they finally made it here into the top 10, I can hear the joyful yells of many fans.  Well the resent stretch makes me think that they could find their way into a Wild Card hunt but I don’t know if they could win the division. It’s very possible but at the moment Baltimore and Boston are just better all around teams.  Don’t lose hope Toronto fans you only can go up!

So there’s the top 10 and here comes everyone’s favorite argument (apparently) the Bottom 5 teams.

26) Los Angeles Dodgers- I will admit there is some joy in putting them here.  As hard as I try to stay un-bias (other than my Astros) I’ve never been a Dodger fan.  But more to the point; no hitting, no pitching and they rely on a rookie for any sort of offense.  Bad team that should be doing way better, probably the biggest disappointment this year.

27) New York Mets- Still doing bad, not sure what else there is to say.  Though the pitching does seem to be turning a new leaf but the bullpen will murder their ERA every time.

28) Milwaukee Brewers- How many times can I say their doing bad before I get repetitive?  Well with no Ryan Braun this team gets worse, have decent players but man just…wow.

29) Houston Astros- Its funny how the Astros work, one week the offense is great but the pitching is bad.  The next week it’s the opposite, but the pitching is starting to get things down.  They aren’t the team people where beating up on in the beginning of the season anymore.

30) Miami Marlins- Mike Stanton’s return is interesting and makes me fully confident in my prediction that he is traded by the deadline.  With the rumor spreading that the Giants are looking at Ricky Nolasco look for the Marlins to find new ways to be bad.  At this point they’re making it an art form how bad they are.

Scouting Report: Hunter Pence

            The San Francisco Giants are one of the most confusing teams in baseball.  They hit for a high AVG and OBP but can’t hit more than doubles and win most of their games with 3 runs.  But they win and as my dad says “that’s all that matters is that the Giants win and the Dodgers lose.”  As you can tell my dad is a diehard Giants fan, most arguments in baseball end now with “how many rings do the Astros have?”  But I digress, today I’m not going to talk about the team as a whole but that day is coming today I want to talk about 1 player that has been a major driving force for the team this year.  Lets take a look at the RF for the Giants Hunter Pence.

            So why Hunter Pence and not say Buster Posey?  Pablo Sandoval? Matt Cain?  Well it comes down to a question that I wanted to find the answer to, what changed he’s one of the more valuable players on the team so far this year and Pence is one of the few players actually hitting for power.  Considering he batted .219 in the second half of last season and hit nearly half the RBI’s in the same about of time I wanted to see what changed.  Pence isn’t the best player on the team, that distinction still goes to Poesy, but right now he’s the one thing the team really needed.  Pence started off rocky as a Giant but this year with a stat line of .292/.336/.504 he’s making Giant fans forget his terrible playoff stats.

            The one thing that’s impressed me about Pence was the Homerun total so far.  He’s on pace to get 26 if he gets his average of 660 Plate Appearances but what makes that so interesting is that he has 147 AB’s away from home with 6 HR’s to show for it.  At home though is the interesting part; in 127 AB’s he has 5 HR’s at home.  San Francisco is well known to sap power from even the biggest bats so to have a HR% better at home than away from it is actually an impressive feat.  Mind you that this trend may not continue since Pence is going to have more home games then away by seasons end and the HR% may come down if he doesn’t get away from home but the power seems to be legit.

            Power isn’t the only thing that Pence seems to be improving upon; his BB% is actually down from his career average by 1%, from 7.3% to 6.4% this year but his K% is down as well and quite a bit.  His career average K% is 18.3% and this year it’s down to 15.3%.  The main question we have to ask after seeing that is how legitimate is it so we need to take a look at the Swing%.  What’s actually interesting is Pence seems to be swinging outside the zone about the same as his career average says it should be (31% career and currently at 32% so no real difference there) but he’s taking more pitches inside the zone from 70% career to 65% this year.  This hasn’t affected his Contact% at all except Pence is making more contact on pitches outside the zone, which is up 6% from his career total.  From what I can see the Contact% and Swing% don’t seem to be different so the BB% and K% are for real this year.  Another good sign to say this is a legit improvement is the BABIP that Pence has posted so far is a little low but pretty much his career BABIP meaning he’s not getting super lucky and that he may not regress much if at all.

            Another stat I’ll bring up is the higher than his career average ISO (Isolated Power).  What this shows us is he’s getting more 2B’s, 3B’s and more importantly HR’s.  Now ISO does need a solid number of PA before we get a good idea if this is something he can keep up but for now Pence looks like he can.  The last thing to note is that the HR/FB rate is right on target with his career HR/FB% so it is very possible that he can keep up the power numbers.

            I wanted to look at Pence for 1 reason and that was the power he’s showing.  That and to show that the stats actually backed up everything he’s doing so far to be more than just simple luck but that with the improvements from the previous half season with the Giants.  Pence is going to be a big part of this playoff hunt for the Giants and they need him to keep up the numbers he’s producing.  If the Giants get lucky and have all they players that need to step up finally get themselves together this could be a very interesting battle between Arizona and San Fran.

Sabermetrics

            When I write my blogs I tend to use a lot of stats that many people aren’t accustomed to seeing.  BABIP, FIP, xFIP, K/9, OPS+, UZR and WAR are examples of stats called sabermetrics or advanced stats.  The idea of sabermetrics is to take what a player is doing statistically and gain insight on the player’s tendencies.  These can range form seeing what a player likes to swing at and where he likes to swing the most using a Swing % in and out of the zone or seeing if a pitcher is getting a little lucky do to having a stronger defense than another pitcher using FIP and xFIP.  Or simply looking at an existing stat like OBP (On Base Percentage) and giving it more importance by using wOBA or weighted On Base Average to see how a player does on getting on base among other things.  In this blog I want to go over some of the saber stats I use when looking at players and also to help people who are lost when reading the blog and I mention a stat.

            The way I’ve decided to work this is by showing how to calculate the stat and then give a description on how it’s relevant.  I’ll also separate them into pitching and hitting stats that way it will be easier to know which stat pertains to which aspect of the game.  Yes it is true that many of the stats actually work for both (as an example BABIP has a hitting and pitching calculation) but unless I say it twice it will only apply to the aspect I mention it under.  So here we go, lets start at the hitting stats first.

Hitting:

1)   BABIP or Batting Average on Balls in Play- Hits-Homeruns/At Bats-Strike outs-Walks-Homeruns.

Basically this is a stat that tries to gauge the “luck” factor for hitters and literally translates out into “What is the players batting average when he puts the ball in play.”  As an example lets use Albert Pujols and Mike Trout; lets say both hit a hard grounder into the gap between 3^rd base and Shortstop.  Trout runs hard and beats a tough throw and his BABIP goes up but on that same play Pujols is thrown out meaning his BABIP will go down.  A lot of variables can be in play and that’s what BABIP tries to show us.

2)   OPS or On Base Plus Slugging- OBP+SLG.  This is a conflicting stat and also a misleading one.  It combines two important stats that have very good information but they aren’t equal stats.  Most consider OBP to be more important than SLG and many good OBP don’t have a high SLG so it makes the results iffy.  There are better stats to use but this is a good starting point.  Another version of this stat that is starting to become a little more popular is OPS+, pretty much it shows the percentage above or below the average OPS a player is.  Example if a player is a 90 OPS+ he his 10% below average, 100 being the baseline.

3)   HR/FB rate or Homerun to Fly Ball rate- HR/FB.  Pretty simple to explain, basically its how often a player hits the ball in the air does it go for a Homerun.  It’s not a luck stat but it is a stat that can act like one, if a player is hitting say a Homerun every 5 fly balls he’s hitting about a Homerun about 20% of the time which isn’t sustainable and he will eventually average out.

4)   wOBA or weighted On-Base Average- (0.691xuBB+.722xHBP+.884x1B+1.257x2B+1.593x3B+2.058xHR)/(AB+BB–IBB+SF+HBP).  That’s a very large equation that pretty much says not all players are equal.  This is the catch-all offensive stat that says the value of a hitter and takes all the 3 stats we call counting stats (AVG, OBP, SLG) and combines them into one stat to show the value of the hitter.  When I say that every player isn’t equal it is more or less talking about how the 3 counting stats work which all assume that the hitters are equal or the things they do are equal; a 2B is not worth double a 1B.  wOBA doesn’t just take the 3 stats into account but every aspect of the hitter and calculates for accuracy and scope more than numbers.  The numbers used to calculate the stat changed on a yearly basis.

5)   ISO or Isolated Power- ((2B) + (2x3B) + (3xHR))/AB.  Pretty much means Extra Base Hits / At Bats; like I said in OPS there was a better stat to gauge a hitters power numbers and here it is.  It only looks at when a hitter gets past a single.  One thing about this stat is it needs lots of data to make a good calculation, as in almost half a season before you can start looking into it otherwise the sample size is just not small.

6)   Swing% or Swing Rate.  A stat that is good on its own merits but more powerful when combined with BB% K% and others to get a good idea at what the hitter is doing when he swings.  As the name suggests it shows how often a batter is swinging, there are also stats to show how often a hitter is swinging in the strike zone (Z-Swing%) and outside the strike zone (O-Swing%).  Using all 3 shows the tendencies of hitters and how often the pitcher can get them to swing at pitches.  A useful tool for scouts and pitching coaches.

These are the main hitting stats that I look when I look at a team or player (ISO is better for players then teams).  So lets take a look at some of the pitching saber stats.

1)   ERA or Earned Runs Average- (ER/Innings Pitched)*9.  The best way to look at this stat is pretty much what it looks like, how many runs a player would give up in a 9-inning game.  Or just the average of runs he would be giving up in 9 innings overall.  Not a good stat to look for future success but it’s a nice way to just look at a player and say, “oh ok that’s how he’s pitching so far.”  For reference an average ERA is about 4.00.

2)   WHIP or Walks and Hits per Inning Pitched- BB+H/Innings Pitched.  Much like ERA this stat is exactly as it stats and shows how often a pitcher is letting a runner on base per inning pitched, and much like ERA it’s not the best evaluation tool.  Pitchers have very little control over their BABIP (yes pitchers have one too) so the WHIP could be misleading for good or ill.  A average WHIP is about 1.32.

3)   Quality Starts- No formula for this one just a simple counting stat and just an ok one at that IMO.  To get a Quality Start the pitcher must go at least 6 innings and give up no more than 3 runs.  The reason I don’t like this stat simply comes down to that baseline, if a pitcher gives up 3 runs in 6 innings he has an ERA of 4.50.  Yes technically he’s keeping the team in the game but that’s still unimpressive.  Also I should mention that this stat was created by Scott Boras to help sell his players…not I’m not kidding this stat was invented to get pitchers more money by making them sound better.  Not a terrible stat but not my favorite to look at.

4)   FIP or Fielding Independent Pitching- ((13*HR)+(3*(BB+HBP))-(2*K))/IP + constant).  This stat is what a pitchers ERA should look like if the balls in play and timing are league average.  To put it simply, it’s a stat that makes the defense league average and see how much the defense he currently has aids him and his ERA.  I like this stat since it shows a more accurate look at the pitcher at see if he’s getting lucky or not.  Example: if a pitchers ERA is 2.30 and his FIP is 4.60 this means he’s getting very lucky and that’s going to average out at some point, this works vise versa were a pitchers ERA is 4.60 and his FIP is 2.30 meaning he’s unlucky and his defense is hurting him a lot.  An average FIP should be around 4.00.  There is another stat called xFIP that calculates almost identically to this one but uses HR/FB rate which I don’t like.  It tends to change too much since HR/FB rates can drop and rise to inconsistently.

Well that’s most of the stats I look at but not nearly all of them, but this is getting on in length so maybe another day I’ll look into more of them and explain them as well.  Also there are many stats that I personally haven’t gotten the hang of yet so I want to learn them before I explain them.

Struggles of the New York Yankees

For the last few years I’ve always questioned why the Yankee hate was still around.  When I was younger it always made sense since they were in the playoffs every year and they always seemed to be in the World Series, which could make fans mad since they never see their team.  Then they bought all these expensive players and “bought” their team making it so other teams didn’t have a chance to get the player themselves.  This is all fine and good and if you don’t like the Yankees that’s fine; I personally have not hate towards a team in general and least of all the Yankees.  This year the Yanks have had it rough even if the standings don’t actually show it.  Today I want to take a look at how the New York Yankees have been and why the down fall is most likely on its way.

            The Yankees are sitting right now in 2^nd place in the AL East with a record of 36-26.  A highly respectable record giving that they’ve had enough people on the Disabled List (DL) to man an entire team so far.  The hot start came from the surprise resurgence of players like Vernon Wells and Lyle Overbay.  But lets see what the stats say and if the Yanks can keep this up or will the luck start to run out.

            As of right now the team is batting .245/.307/.397 which is average and down from where the team started the season.  If you look at the last month the team is batting .230 due to the hot players starting to average out.  Vernon Wells as an example has a OPS+ of 85 meaning he’s hitting 85% below league average OPS given the park factors and such.  He was a major driving force for the team in the early months.  Since the early months of the season his K% is up above his career total 13.1% to 14.2% not a huge difference but that means he’s getting out more.  Wells is also getting unlucky with a BABIP (Batting Average on Balls in Play) of .239, which is well below career numbers of .278.  Not everything can be blamed on 1 player though; this is just a small example to show that the team is struggling due to lack of power.

            In the last month the team has had 55 extra base hits (double, triple or HR) out of 841 possible plate appearances meaning the team gets an extra base hit about 6% of the time or every 15 PA.  As a comparison, the Anaheim Angels have 80 extra base hits in 849 PA meaning they get an extra base hit about 10% of the time or about every 10 PA; that may not look like much but it can make a difference.  Only 3 Yankees have more then 10 HR’s and 2 have 10: Robison Cano, Vernon Wells and Travis Hafner.  Of the 3 Cano averages a HR about every 18 PA, Well’s is averaging one every 22 PA and Hafner every 15.  Hafner is about 50 PA shorter then both Can and Wells to be far.  As an experiment lets see how they will pan out the rest of the season at this pace, we’ll give them about 550 PA.  Cano should end the season with roughly 30 HR’s which is good and is on pace for his career numbers.  Well’s he could end the season with a 25 HR season which if you look at career is right on pace and Hafner is on pace for a 36 HR.  So why am I focusing on these guys in particular?  These are the only power threats the Yankees have and 2 of them will most likely be injured at some point.  550 is a lot of PA and it may vary but if the Yanks want to survive to the playoffs they need power fast.  This doesn’t look like a thing they can fix internally and I can see them looking for trades to help.  There are more holes that could be touched up but the power numbers need to return or at least get more doubles to stay in the race.

            Hitting may be one weak area but pitching has been a good surprise for the team.  The starters have had their hiccups here and there but for the most part they have kept the team moving forward while the hitting gets stagnate.  The starters have average a 4.05 ERA which isn’t great but is below the AL league average and slightly above MLB average for all pitchers.  The pitcher that has helped the team is David Phelps, coming from the bullpen when Pettitte went down with an injury and coming in strong with a 9.1 K% and a 3.90 ERA.  He may give to many walks at nearly 4 BB/9 but for now its not hurting him.  Nothing in the stats say Phelps is getting lucky either; a BABIP that is only a few points higher than his career line and a strand rate of 66% is lower than his career as well.  If he can keep it up it could help the team as they hitting stabilizes.  The team has been pitching well in the last 2 weeks with a 3.32 ERA and 1.16 WHIP, which is why the Yankees are 7-4 in that time frame.

            In the end the Yankees have one major issue right now and its not the hitting or pitching.  The team needs to be able to stay healthy long enough to actually play the game.  They currently have 6 players on the DL and that’s actually 3 less from the last time I checked the list.  Age is a problem for the team in the long term and the front office knows it; Brian Cashman is preparing the teams future by not trading all the top prospects during the deadline and avoiding the big signings that cost them a pick.  I still see the Yanks making the playoffs this year one way or another, but at the same time they are the weakest of the 3 big teams in the AL East and have a lot of work to get back on top.

Power Rankings May 30th-June 12th

My favorite time of the week, time to sit down and look at my stats to see if and where teams place in my power rankings.  As always I would like to remind everyone that my rankings are based on stats that I have gathered, standings and personal beliefs or opinions.  So without further delay lets see if things have changed in this weeks Power Rankings.

1)   Texas Rangers- Even though they are having a bit of an off last weeks that doesn’t change my opinion of them.  Pitching is still going strong and I can assume it’ll only get better when the Texas sun starts warming things up.  The bats were quite these last few weeks but when they were hitting they hit hard.  Adrian Beltre has finally woken up and has quietly brought his AVG back to .304 with 14 HRs.

2)   St. Louis Cardinals- Its getting to the point where I truly see the Rangers and Cardinals as equals.  Both have strong pitching and dangerous lineups, if you were to make the case that the Cards are the top team I wouldn’t argue at all.

3)   Atlanta Braves- The pitching on this team has been beyond amazing.  In the past 2 weeks the team has a 2.08 ERA and a .87 WHIP.  That is just deadly to any team going against them, the scary part is the bullpen is banged up and they can still pitch better than any healthy pen.  While there are signs that this may be some luck the FIP is not to much different or worse than the ERA.

4)   Boston Red Sox- Strong hitting has put them slightly ahead of Baltimore for now.  The bats have been very hot and baring injury could just run with what they’ve been doing.  Pitching had a good few weeks but they did regress somewhat.

5)   Baltimore Orioles- The hitting and pitching has cooled off over the last few weeks.  I gave Boston the bump only because how good they were in comparison to Baltimore.

6)   Cincinnati Reds- The hitting is starting to get hot and the pitching is staying consistent.  Time will tell if the loss of Johnny Cueto will hurt the team in the end but for now they look rock solid.

7)   Detroit Tigers- Much like the Reds they’re staying consistent enough.  I say enough since the team is a feast of famine team.  They could win by 10 for 3 days and lose without scoring a run or 2; if they could be more consistent in their hitting they could be very dangerous in the playoffs.

8)   Arizona Diamondbacks- I’m still going to say this team is going to win the NL West.  The offense is better than people give them credit and in the last few weeks have had a very solid .277/.333/.347 line.  If they continue to do this I can see them staying off Colorado and San Francisco.

9)   New York Yankees- While the pitching is still doing well the hitting is just laying eggs all over the place.  They still have a chance to get back into it and have plenty of time but they need to hit for more power or this could get ugly fast.

10)         Colorado Rockies- I finally give and put them ahead of the Giants.  Well not really, I actually see the two teams as a tie but with a very good offensive week I gave them an edge.  On the flip side the Giants had a better pitching week so it’s going to go down the stretch with this division.

Now everyone’s favorite part and seeing who’s the worst of the worst.  Before I we start I wanted to say something, when the season began it was a 2 horse race for worst team in baseball.  As of now there are 8 teams within 5 games of the Astros record and even they have more wins then the Marlins so this is getting…close.

            26) Minnesota Twins- Still playing terrible but are hitting better and pitching better in the last few weeks so they get a small bump.  They’re still not as good as ESPN rates them that’s all I’m saying.

            27) Milwaukee Brewers- They the Twins of the NL, not a good team but doing better.

            28) Houston Astros- They seem to be getting this “oh it’s the Astros who cares” reputation and while I see and agree with what they say that doesn’t mean they can just ignore them.  The Twins, Brewers and Astros can do the same thing; take them lightly and they can hurt you bad.

            29) New York Mets- I feel bad for guys like Matt Harvey and David Wright since those are the only real players on this team.  They have so far to go to become relevant again and at this point a trade of David Wright starts looking valid.  Sad times for Mets fans.

            30) Miami Marlins- They got Stanton back…that’s all I got.

Tips for a Fantasy Draft

            After such a serious article last time I decided that this time I wanted to talk about something a little more light hearted.  In honor of the First Year Draft for MLB I decided to talk about a draft that I pay attention to, I want to talk about a Fantasy Baseball Draft.  The best way to do this I feel is to just give some good draft pointers that I have learned over the years and through my studies of stats.  So lets take a quick look at my tips for a successful fantasy baseball draft.

            Hint 1: You can’t win your draft in the first round but you can lose it.

What I mean by this is quite simply pick the best player you can in the first round that will give you the best stats possible.  The first round is full of players that are the best stat guys in the game and you want to pick the best one that gives you the best possible chance for consistent stats.  For example guys like Joey Votto, Carlos Gonzalez, Ryan Braun and Robinson Cano just to name a few.  Risky picks like Matt Kemp and Mike Trout can pay off big or become a big bust and kill your team.

            Hint 2: Have a draft day strategy.

Going into the draft with a plan of attack is always a good idea.  For example here are a few I use every draft I’m in: Draft pitchers no earlier than the 5^th-6^th round depending on the pitchers available.  Look for the shallowest position and make sure to have them drafted before you drafted my pitcher.  Find a position and corner the market.  These tips are good ideas for beginner fantasy players and pros alike.

            Hint 3: No plan survives contact with the enemy.

The draft is a battlefield with you and your league mates with everyone trying to out play and draft the best players.  The best example of this is my draft strategy of cornering a position; every league mate may have the same idea so there’s a strong chance you can’t get the position you wanted to corner.

            Hint 4: Go for positions and stats not players.

A common mistake player’s make is to try and gun for a player that they really like before someone else.  The problem is that the player may be a favorite and even draftable in the league but the sometimes they reach for a player. (Reaching for a player means drafting a player before he should be drafted.)

            Hint 5: Don’t Pay for Saves.

Any fans of the Fantasy Focus may hear this a lot on the show but it works.  Closers are a dime a dozen and constantly fall in and out of favor with the manager.  It may be wise to grab a Jim Johnson or Jonathan Papelbon if you can but don’t reach for them since saves can come late in the draft.  Example of this is Jason Grilli who was drafted late in most drafts (somewhere around the 200^th pick) and he’s now one of the top closers in baseball.

            Hint 6: Late Round value/Sleepers

Sleepers are players that may not have made a name for themselves but have the talent to break out.  Guys like Lorenzo Cain, Alex Cobb and Chris Davis were guys that were considered big sleeper picks.  Many of these players can go late in the draft and give a massive boost to your team or could end up doing nothing at all.  Chris Davis is the #2 player on the ESPN Player Rater and I drafted him in the 19^th out of 25 round.  I got some very good value from him indeed.

            Hint 7: Watch the matchups

Pitchers do better in some stadiums and against other teams.  It’s always a smart idea to start a pitcher against the Marlins and Padres for instance because they are weak offenses and have good pitcher stadiums.  Though sometimes those same pitchers are guys that will be hit hard against teams that have a good hitter stadium like in Colorado or going against teams like Texas.  Try to limit the number of pitchers that are called match up pitchers and more pitchers that you can just leave in.  While it is a valid strategy during the season to have spot starters (guys you don’t start every outing but only when the matchups are good) during the draft its best not to have them.

            Hint 7: The most important rule of all.

Have fun, seriously make sure you have fun and draft the team that you want.  While this contradicts some of the ideas I’ve listed but it is more important to have fun with your team and have the players and team you want than playing like a stats counter like me.  Unless your idea of fun is playing for #1 then go for it.

            I hope this helps for players later on next year, I know it’s kind of early to be thinking of next years draft but this way you can look at things during the season that will help during the draft.  Next week I’ll have my Power Rankings and an in depth look at the New York Yankees.  I’m ready for the hate mail to rain in.

Steroid Probe and My Views

            So far I’ve been writing based on hard evidence, granted it’s my evidence to support my claims but it is statistical data nonetheless.  Today is a bit different since there are facts but nothing that can be quantified by 1’s and 2’s and gives fans no solace if they had a good reason to or not.  The Steroid Era has been a stain on the sport that can never be washed off; but what’s worse than the taint of the PED is the person in charge of it all.

            I hate Bud Selig; yes this is an abrupt thing to say but it’s true I really do not like the man.  This isn’t to say he hasn’t done good things for the sport, if it wasn’t for him we wouldn’t have the Wild Card spot and more recently the extra Wild Card that gets 1 more team into the playoffs per league.  I love the Wild Card and it was a brilliant and profitable addition to the game.  When baseball was taken out of the Olympics (more or less do to MLB and their unwillingness to let the younger players go and play for their countries) he created the WBC or World Baseball Classic and again that was a good and profitable idea.  But to me his complete and utter mishandling of the steroid situation erases all that he’s done for the sport.

            Yesterday the news broke that the Biogenetics scandal that the owner/founder of the company was going to speak up and name names.  Selig has taken it upon himself to no seek 100 game suspensions to every player that has been mentioned in leaked documents.  Some players mentioned are Ryan Braun, Alex Rodriguez, Melky Cabrera, Evereth Cabrera, Bartolo Colon, Jhonny Peralta, Nelson Cruz and Robinson Cano.  Yes these are some pretty big names to be on this list and if they test positive for steroid use they all deserve to be punished by the rules set by the MLBPA (Major League Baseball Player Association) and the owners.

            I’ve done some research and looked for the specifics of the steroid policy and the one thing that stands out is the punishments for use of steroids and conviction of use.  On the first offense the player is suspended 50 games, a second offense is 100 game suspension and a third offense is a lifetime ban.  So here’s my first question about the potential 100 game ban that is going to be levied onto these players, who actually has failed a drug test recently?  Melky Cabrera has failed a drug test but has already done his punishment; he hasn’t failed a second time so why does he get punished again?  The other players haven’t even had their first offense so who exactly does this constitute as a second offense as the Commissioner is trying to claim it as.  Again the rules are very clear in this matter and Selig is abusing his position as Commissioner to punish players that he feels “beat his system” and, to me at, least is very clear.

            In the end I don’t feel that, if this punishment actually does happen and as its been reported, doesn’t fit the crime at all.  If they had failed a test and had been beyond a doubt convicted of taking steroids then a punishment is acceptable to me but right now I just don’t see the evidence that they TOOK the drugs to warrant suspension.  Many may say that yes they do need to be punished because of the evidence they may have taken steroids or at least paid for steroids.  The question gets very muddled in personal opinion and peoples beliefs.  In the end to me I want proof that they are currently taking steroids before I want to see punishments and I certainly want to punishments to fit the crime and not because of some persons personal vendetta.

Edit: Shortly after writing this I found an article that said that a player that is found associated with steroids can be suspended for steroid use.  So what does this change?  Absolutely nothing and in my mind but in fact makes me question the Commissioner more.  Why do these players get a 100 game suspension while others don't?  Also if we can go back and punish players for bad decisions in the past doesn't that mean we need to go back and punish players we know cheated in the past?  Take Mark McGwire's name out of the history books?  Babe Ruth taken out of the Hall with Ty Cobb? Ya to me this just opens a giant can of worms.

Scouting Report: Domonic Brown

            Not every prospect ends up working out for their respective teams, in fact for every Mike Trout and Ryan Braun there’s a Rickie Weeks and Brett Wallace.  They have talent but always seem to fall short in reaching their potential.  Rookies can be very unpredictable on when they become star players and start playing at the level that make them top prospects, as such today I’m taking a look at Domonic Brown.  After such a hot start I felt it was time to let the stats show us if this is real or if this is just an extended hot streak, lets find out.

            The Philadelphia Phillies drafted Domonic Brown back in 2006 in the 20^th round; once again proving that talent doesn’t have to come from the first round to be good talent.  He quickly became one of the top prospects in the system with a combination of speed and power till up until he was called up back in 2010 he was the #1 prospect in the system rated by Baseball America.  After he was called up he did horrible, striking out at the rate of 34% of his at bats.  His contact rate was no better when he first came up and didn’t improve in the next 2 seasons which lead him to be a non-tender candidate just this last off-season.  He hasn’t had a very successful Majors career up till this year so lets see what the stats say about this current season.

            Brown is currently hitting .271/.302/.437 with a OPS of .851.  The OBP is low and this may not change drastically throughout his career since he likes to swing the bat.  He currently swings at 32% of pitches outside the zone and 79% in having 10% of his strikes come from swings.  Much like most young bats that come up he’s a free swinger but a powerful one.  At current pace he is hitting a Homerun every 13 Plate Appearances (PA), which if he gets 620 PA’s he could have roughly 47 HR’s by seasons end.  That most likely isn’t going to happen but it seems more reasonable to assume he gets to 30 HR’s.

            With the information about his tendencies lets look at his current stat line.  His .302 OBP is a direct result of walk totals.  Brown’s walking about 4% of the time which is down 4% of his career (Major and Minors) walk rate so we can assume that will average itself out.  If we take just his Major’s BB% he owns an 8.3% walk rate so his OBP has a good chance of coming back up.  As for his AVG. its actually about where it should be; Brown’s BABIP (Batting Average on Balls in Play) is a career .268 and his current AVG. is .266 which means he’s not hitting into luck and his luck isn’t bad.  Knowing his tendency to be a free swinger will determine how he ends the season though.  Many players like him start the season hot and end the season with a .212 AVG because they can’t control the swing.  Power is legit, nothing here says his power wont stay so if you were to say the over under on HR’s for the season at 30 id say over but not by much.  OPS+ has him at a above league average power at 127.  (OPS+ weighs more variables into the equation such as park effects etc.  An OPS+ of 100 is considered league average.  Example: if a player has an OPS+ of 90 he’s 10% below league average OPS.)  In the end I wouldn’t be surprised to see a stat line that looks like .268/.320/.510 by seasons end.

            The speed hasn’t shown itself like many thought it would and instead of being a guy that could maybe steal 20 bases Brown may only end the season with 13-15 range.  Good but not what he was expected to do before the season, he may break out of this later in the season but we have to see.  His defense has been solid only committing 1 error in 89 possible attempts and that was a throwing error; Brown has also had 4 outfield assists and can gun down runners trying to stretch a single and such.

            Over all I’m actually surprised and not surprised by what I’m seeing.  I’m surprised that the stats actually point that not only is it legit he could end the season better than he is now.  On the flip side the walk rate and K% aren’t a shock and if anything is going to lead to his downfall it’s going to be him continuing to swing and miss on balls outside the zone and not taking a walk.  Overall Domonic Brown has become a great story this year and shows that sometimes patience with prospects can turn out for the team.  He’s not Trout but in some ways he’s better than Trout, power is legit and it could become 35-40 HR power at some point the sky is the limit for him since he is only 25 and 1 year away from what most scouts consider the “peak” years.