Riding
Mile High
After
looking back at many of my articles I’ve written I noticed there seems to be a
running them. I always seem to
focus on the player that is struggling or that is having issues at the
time. Very few have actually ended
up looking at a player doing good and breaking him down to see if he is legit
or not. So today I want to take a
look at one such story of a player that seems to come out of nowhere are to
become one of this year’s better stories.
Charlie Blackmon has been one of the driving forces that have turned the
joke of a team last year to a playoff contending team this year so lets take a
look at what he’s been doing.
|
|
BB%
|
K%
|
AVG
|
OBP
|
SLG
|
OPS
|
ISO
|
BABIP
|
wOBA
|
wRC+
|
|
2014
|
5.1%
|
10%
|
.319
|
.357
|
.527
|
.882
|
.209
|
.318
|
.384
|
131
|
|
2013
|
2.7%
|
19%
|
.309
|
.336
|
.467
|
.803
|
.159
|
.366
|
.350
|
109
|
|
Career
|
3.5%
|
14%
|
.299
|
.331
|
.448
|
.779
|
.149
|
.328
|
.341
|
101
|
There’s
one stat that stands out above all the rest here and it’s not the ISO. Look at those stats and notice he’s
actually having the worst BABIP year of his career. What makes it so significant to me is the fact that Blackmon
has played 3 seasons and played at least 40 games in each of those
seasons. That means his best
season is also his most “unlucky” it’s more likely a case of regressing to the
mean. The power doesn’t really
seem legit in my opinion, it seems to just have come out of no where and the
fact it’s so much higher than previous seasons tells me its not the norm. In the end there’s a lot of good signs
here to be very encouraged by his play moving forward.
Batted Ball:
|
|
GB/FB
|
LD%
|
GB%
|
FB%
|
HR/FB
|
|
2014
|
1.13
|
19.8%
|
42.6%
|
37.7%
|
14.8%
|
|
2013
|
1.33
|
27.2%
|
41.5%
|
31.3%
|
9.8%
|
|
Career
|
1.30
|
22.0%
|
44.0%
|
34.0%
|
9.9%
|
Personally
when I look at a hitter I’d like to see more LD’s than anything else since LD’s
to me show more solid contact and harder hit balls. The fact that Blackmon’s rate has gone down so much is
interesting and note worthy to me.
It obviously coincides with the rise in his FB% and HR/FB but it also
means he’s getting under the ball more and that could lead to weak pop ups as
well. It’s working for him now but
it is something to at least keep an eye on. After all this is his first season of hitting for such power
so if his HR power dips then this could go south.
Plate Discipline:
|
|
O-Swing
|
Z-Swing
|
Swing%
|
O-Contact
|
Z-Contact
|
Contact%
|
F-Strike%
|
SwStr%
|
|
2014
|
34.7%
|
66.8%
|
49.1%
|
79.6%
|
96.4%
|
89.8%
|
64.1%
|
5.2%
|
|
2013
|
37.8%
|
68.6%
|
51.8%
|
71.7%
|
91.0%
|
83.4%
|
62.4%
|
8.7%
|
|
Career
|
35.4%
|
63.1%
|
49.7%
|
73.8%
|
93.3%
|
85.7%
|
48.0%
|
7.0%
|
We
can see here where this increase in BB% comes from. Blackmon has actually lessened the mount of swings he’s
taking making the pitcher make better pitches to him. This shows how effective its been with a staggering 89.9%
Contact% which could be a little high for him but as long as he keeps this new
patience it doesn’t mean he automatically will lose this new contact
skill. To be fair to Blackmon he’s
always demonstrated a good contact ability and this year he seems to have
improved pitched reorganization to really maximize his abilities. Some of this could be a bit over his
head and I do think he will start to regress over time but how much will be
determined by his BB% more than anything else.
Hot/Cold Zone:
|
|
1-2
|
0-3
|
0-1
|
|
|
.167
|
1-4
|
.273
|
.400
|
0-1
|
|
0-4
|
.375
|
.393
|
.417
|
.300
|
|
1-2
|
.167
|
.423
|
.423
|
0-3
|
|
0-3
|
0-3
|
.286
|
1-4
|
0-4
|
Admittedly
this is impressive no matter who you are.
Only 2 spots in the zone are a weak area and the rest is just a hot zone
that every pitcher has to watch out for.
Since we know he’s being more selective it makes sense why we see so few
pitches outside the zone being hit.
Really this just shows his ability to drive the ball and more
importantly his plate coverage has improved covering all areas of the plate.
So
far this has been a very positive look at Charlie Blackmon but there is one
area that I think we need to look at just to balance it out. There’s one thing that people have
pointed out about the team in general.
Lets take a look at Blackmon’s splits, more specifically the home and
road splits.
Splits: Home/Road
|
|
BB%
|
K%
|
AVG
|
OBP
|
SLG
|
OPS
|
ISO
|
BABIP
|
wOBA
|
wRC+
|
|
Home
|
6.1%
|
8.2%
|
.389
|
.429
|
.689
|
1.117
|
.300
|
.368
|
.479
|
182
|
|
Road
|
3.8%
|
12.4%
|
.258
|
.291
|
.371
|
.662
|
.113
|
.277
|
.293
|
82
|
Wow,
that is a major difference and is the main reason why people are a little
worried about Blackmon and his sustainability. At home this guy is just a beast and very few players can
match him. His numbers are
actually amazing and the most impressive stat is that 182 wRC+ which puts him
82% better than the rest of league at home. Though this is also do to his team and you can’t forget
about how good his team has been at home.
Now we look at his away stats just look average to below average. The lucky thing for him is most of
these stats rate a slightly below average to average at worst so he does have
that going for him. Why his BB%
and K% change so dramatically is kind of a mystery to me, perhaps it’s a simple
case of him seeing the ball better but I think that’s the key to his future
success. That BABIP is also pretty
low but without calculating what his average BABIP is away we can’t see if its
on pace or is just an anomaly. The
other thing that stands out is the wRC+ which like before is more due to the
team not just his own struggles.
Charlie
Blackmon has been touted as a player that just needed playing time to fully realize
what he can do and for the most part that seems to be the case. He’s having a terrific season so far
but the splits are a bit of a worry and if he starts to get any worse the team
could have problems. I stated a
few times that this isn’t just a Blackmon issue this is a team issue but
Blackmon, wanted or not, is now a leader of this team and he needs to step up
on the road. The Rockies are a
contender this year I no small part do to Blackmon so give him respect, now if
he could just take a walk on the road we’d be a lot happier.
