Power Rankings May 29

This week is a special week, well for me at least.  Over the last 2 weeks I’ve personally been charting stats for every game in that time frame.  I did this for a few reasons but the top one is to help me make better assessments during my Power Rankings, this way I can actually see how a team has been doing recently and not just go by general stats and make a educated guess on who is doing better.  With that said lets take a look at this weeks Power rankings.

1)                   Texas Rangers- It’s starting to look like this team may never leave the top spot from this point on.  In the last 2 weeks they are hitting .274/.326/.410 (Avg/On Base Percentage/Slugging).  The pitching has been doing with a team ERA of 3.50 and K/9 rate of 10.8 they keep looking strong.

2)                   St. Louis Cardinals- Having a down week but still keeping strong.  The loss of Jamie Garcia is a blow but not to the rotation per say just to the fact they need to find a new pitcher to fill the void.  They have the depth in the minors so I don’t see a need to worry just yet.

3)                   Atlanta Braves- No shocker here but it was a close call and honestly you can interchange the Cardinals and Braves and I wouldn’t have an issue with that.  The thing that stands out about the Braves is the pitching has been great with a 3.19 ERA and 1.17 WHIP (Walks and Hits per Innings Pitched) in the last 2 weeks.  Maybe a little lucky but for now they have the hitting and pitching to keep it up.

4)                   Baltimore Orioles- Another coin toss between them and the next team on the list.  Not really a great pitching week for them but hitting has been going on all cylinders as of late.  I would like the pitching to match the hitting but we shall see.

5)                   New York Yankees- While having an off couple of weeks in both hitting and pitching they still show signs of life.  With Granderson out again though I am starting to worry how long this can last before the injuries start to over take the team.  They always seem to in the end but this team, for now, is standing strong.

6)                   Boston Red Sox- With the strong pitching and good hitting Boston’s making sure that the rest of the league knows that they’re not going anywhere.  Of these teams on the list Boston has the best starting pitching and can stand toe to toe with Atlanta but the relief staff is still weak after losing both closers.

7)                   Cincinnati Reds- Getting Cueto back makes them stronger than they are already.  If St. Louis starts to lose players from injuries or production starts to regress they could make a strong push.

8)                   Detroit Tigers- Pitching is starting to worry me.  Justin Verlander has been struggling for the last few starts, remember Verlander struggles does not equate to say Joe Blanton struggles, and the bullpen continues to be mediocre at best.  The best thing they have going for them is that Valverde has come back and pitched very well as the closer.  Hitting is still dominant and I don’t see that changing any time soon.

9)                   Arizona Diamondbacks- One of the things that worried me about the team was the pitching; could they keep the ball in the park while at home well enough to actually stay in the race.  With the HR/FB sitting at 3% for the week (that’s 5 Homeruns out of 199 Fly balls) means the team is doing just that and I think they could keep that up.  As for the hitting Paul Goldschmidt is making everyone forget Justin Upton and has a strong MVP type season going on.  They could run away with this division if the Giants and Rockies aren’t careful.

10)                San Francisco Giants- One of the oddest teams in the last 2 weeks, having one of the top Avg. and OBP in the league and yet only having a low SLG hurts them offensively but they can survive that.  What worries me is the pitching.  A .489 ERA and 1.44 WHIP as a team is not going to help them moving forward and could be the downfall.

Now for the Bottom 5 Power Rankings.

26) Milwaukee Brewers- No hitting to speak of and the pitching isn’t doing much better.  This team isn’t going anywhere for a while but at least they do have good young players to fall back on.

27) New York Mets- Again there isn’t much to say other than the team has its problems but has some bright spots.  Matt Harvey has been a great story so far and I believe he can be an ace someday soon.

28) Houston Astros- I can hear the yells already but let me explain.  First the stat line for the hitting is currently .258/.326/.376.  This for a team like them is pretty darn good and shows they can be a threat to teams offensively.  Pitching owns a 3.72 ERA and 1.42 WHIP with a K/9 of 9.4.  The walks are bad at 4.6 per 9 but at least they keep it on the ground having the best Fly Ball to Ground Ball (FB/GB) rate of 0.9 and having the most GB’s so far.  No they’re not going to win the division and no they will still finish last but they may not be the worst in baseball for now.

29) Minnesota Twins- Wow they have been bad and that’s it.

30) Miami Marlins- Bad pitching and bad hitting period.

Trade Deadline Buyers

Last time we talked about potential sellers in this upcoming years trade market.  Where there are sellers there has to be buyers.  Then there are the on lookers, the people that look at what’s happening with the other teams and gauges the potential outcomes to see if they need to make a last minute upgrade or move to counter a move.  The buyers market is a lot harder to guess now and days for 1 simple fact, many teams don’t want to give up the good prospects for the known quantity anymore.  Look at the Yankees as an example, for years they would look at the far system as a tool to trade away and get players that they thought would help them now.  But more importantly look for players that they know what there are getting, trading for Ichiro Sasuki for instance is that kind of trade.  Now and days with the birth of the new way of thinking about statistics, more importantly sabermetric, has also brought a new way of thinking about prospects.  Teams are more likely to take a risk on a guy like Matt Harvey or Jose Fernandez and pass on acquiring the known quantity of guys like Cliff Lee and Bud Norris.

            The new ideas on prospects haven’t changed the game entirely just in the way the general managers look at the guys they have on the farm.  If a team thinks that acquiring Cliff Lee is the best way to win now then the team is most likely going to jump at the chance.  With this in mind lets take a look at the potential buyers in this upcoming trade deadline.  Note that this can change very quickly, many of the teams I list may never be in contention or could just fall out before the deadline.

1)   Anaheim Angels- this will all depend on how the Angels bounce back from such a disappointing season so far.  The main weakness has been the pitching and unlike last year the problems are not just in the bullpen.  Weak starters are costing the Angels big time.  I don’t see them going after any position players per say but it can happen if Jerry Dipoto, the Angels GM, decides to just go for broke and have a pure offensive team and forgoes pitching all together.  I can see them making a play at Jeremy Hellickson if the Rays become sellers as I mentioned before.  One downside is the Angels have the worst farm system in the league.  Any sort of trade will cost them whatever talent they have left.

2)   Los Angeles Dodgers- along the same lines as the Angels comes the other LA team with the Dodgers looking to be buyers.  While their needs aren’t as clear yet as the Angels the Dodgers do need help.  The bullpen has become a liability as of late and that come make them consider guys like Steve Cishek or Fernando Rodney to try and bolster the pen.  They could also make a play at Hellickson but I don’t think the Dodgers feel that starting pitching is as much of a need as bullpen help could be.  I don’t see them making a play at position players at the moment, baring any more injuries.

3)   Cleveland Indians and Pittsburg Pirates- I’m kind of cheating here putting 2 teams in the same spot but both these guys have similar situations.  Neither teams are guaranteed to make the playoffs; they may not even be in contention by the trade deadline.  But if they are in the mix I can see both teams looking to sure up any weak links they can get cheaply.  Bullpen, starters, position players and bench players all of them would be on the radar.  I don’t expect to see these teams during the deadline make any big moves but stranger things have happened.

4)   New York Yankees- the team is good and I can only see then making moves for 1 reason, injuries.  If they can stay healthy I don’t see them needing to find people to trade for.  With the Yankees trying to get younger and work the farm system like other teams have it makes little sense that they would start trading top talent unless they had no choice.

5)   San Francisco Giants- this team could be one that goes for broke looking for a bat or pitcher.  If their pitching can get itself back on track they could focus on getting a good hitter to try and add some power.  They could make a play for Chase Utley if he truly goes on the market.  He seems to be a good fit; good defense and a guy that could help get runs across.  When you’re on the Giants homerun power doesn’t have the same value, double and gap power is more valuable to them and that’s what Utley can bring.  Depending on the way the pitching shapes out look for them to make a play at someone.

6)   Texas Rangers- Pure and simple on this one.  They have the best farm system in the league and they have 1 thing that no other team can offer, Jurickson Profar.  He’s the #1 prospect in all of baseball and the Rangers don’t need him; with Elvis Andurs and Ian Kinsler at SS and 2^nd base respectively they don’t need Profar and can use him to get any player on the market they want.  David Price and Giancalo Stanton are rumored to be the main targets for them.

As with the sellers list this is in no way set in stone, teams will come in and out of contention between now and the deadline.  The idea of these posts was to give you an idea of what could happen and, if it does happen, could be possible reasons to the team’s decisions.

Trade Deadline Sellers

Every sport has its winners and its losers but what makes the difference between the two?  The talent on the team of course, well that may not always be the case but it helps the have the better team and the better talent.  The Tampa Bay Rays have been in the playoffs almost every year for the last 4 years despite having a much smaller budget than their division rivals New York Yankees and Boston Red Sox.  They are one of the smartest ran organizations in all of baseball and one of the best in all of sports.  They do this with 3 critical tools; good scouting, smart drafts, and getting the best value for players that are traded and the best time to trade is the deadline.  That’s our topic for today; I’m going to take a look at possible sellers and buys.  I’ll be looking at the players that may or may not hit the market by the deadline.

Now when I say may or may not I do need to explain first that this is my best estimation and in no way does this mean the players will be traded or are even on the market.  The criteria I’m looking at are where the team is right now in the rankings and what kind of pieces they have to sell.  Financial situations also play a major part in seeing who will be traded.  Back in 2007 Johan Santana was traded at the deadline to the New York Mets; at the time Johan was considered not only the best player on the market but the best pitcher in baseball.  The Twins, Johan’s team at the time, traded him only because they had no choice since they couldn’t afford the money to sign him and they wanted to get value from him leaving.  Now with that out of the way here we go.

Sellers:

1)                   Tampa Bay Rays- The team is not really off to the best of starts but it may turn around at some point, and I hope the do since I like the Rays.  But with money on the tighter side they have to look at the possibility of trading players to get some future talent that they can A) afford and B) sign to long-term deals that are cheap (Evan Longoria as an example).

·      David Price- Sadly this one is going to happen at some point.  If not this year than next year, he’s one of the best pitchers in baseball and that’s why the Rays can’t afford to sign him.  Really this is just a money issue and it will hurt them for a time.

·      Jeremy Hellickson- This one is a shot in the dark since I’ve been hearing his name come up this year in trade talks quite a bit.  This isn’t a money issue since Hellickson is still young and relatively cheap but since teams out there, like the Angels and Dodgers, have need for starting pitching this could be a trade.  Look to see this happen if the Ray falls out of contention.

·      Fernando Rodney or Kyle Farnsworth.

·      James Loney

·      Luke Scott

2)                   Houston Astros- No surprise here that they would be sellers.  The idea of rebuilding is to build a team around a player and slowly build strength, if you’re not in the plans for the projected time your trade bait and that’s what the Astros will look to do.

·      Bud Norris- Probably the most likely to get traded as he has the best value of the people I’m going to list.  Bud is a good #3 guy on most teams and with pitching at a premium he can bring in some good value.  Norris is still relatively young and a good money value.  He hits free agency for the first time in 2014 so he has 1 more year of team control adding value.

·      Lucas Harrell- Here’s a guy that I actually wise we could keep.  Like Norris though he will be to old to make an impact when the Astros become contenders again.  Harrell’s a solid #3 guy on other teams and with a good team behind him will surprise people how talented he is.  Harrell’s under team control till 2018 so he comes with the bonus of long-term control and being 27 he’s in his prime.

·      Eric Bedard

·      Carlos Pena

·      Brett Wallace- The experiment is over, trade him and hope he can rebuild himself.

3)                   Miami Marlins

·      Giancarlo Stanton- I’m honestly not sure what to think about this guy when it comes to trade market.  He’s on a bad team and it’s hurting his value but at the same time the team wants to keep him, so they say.  Personally I’m almost 100% sure that Stanton’s traded this year or the next.  The first year of arbitration is coming up and he’s under team control until 2018.

·      Logan Morrison- I think the team wants to get rid of this guy just because he’s been somewhat of a distraction.  He has talent and value so there’s that.  This years Morrison’s first arbitration year and he’s under team control until 2017.

·      Steve Ciscek- Pitching is valuable and teams want it, pure and simple.

·      Juan Pierre- Older guy that can do a lot of good on another team.

4)                   Philadelphia Phillies

·      Chase Utley- Really the only player of value on the team that actually has a chance to get traded.  Solid defender that has lost a step.  Power 2^nd baseman that could be a .290/15/80 guy on the right team.  Utley is expensive as most vets are and he’s up for free agency next year so he has value for this deadline more then next one.

·      Cliff Lee- I don’t think he will be but it would make sense.  If it happens its going to be for a boat load of prospects and that’s the only way I see him, or Utley for that matter, going anywhere.

5)                   Chicago Cubs-

·      Scott Feldman- Not a young guy but having a good year and could have some value.  He’s only signed through the year so he won’t bring as much in return as others but since this is a rebuilding team they just need young pieces.

·      Alfonso Soriano- every year they try and every year they fail.  Bad contract and declining skills make it a tough sell, also there’s that full no trades clause in his contract so that makes trades difficult.

·      Carlos Marmol and Kevin Gregg- they’re relief pitchers and not the best kind of ones.  Rebuilding team that doesn’t have need for them so they’ll try and get some low level or high risk high/medium reward guys.

That pretty much sums up the sellers; there could be more as time goes on.  Padres, Rockies, A’s, Pirates, Brewers and Indians are just a few teams that could end up in the mix if things go south for them.  Next time I’ll take a look at the opposite end and look at the buyers, which may be much harder than trying to find the sellers.

Future Outlook: Houston Astros

The Houston Astros are a struggling team and have been for the last few seasons.  This doesn’t mean that all hope is lost though in fact it might mean they have a very bright future!  Baseball’s draft is just as important as the rest of the sports world and that one pick can have just as much importance to the clubs future than signing a guy like Pujols or Sabathia.  With these entries we shall take a look at teams and look at how their systems are doing and how the future of the team looks.  First I think it’s a good idea to explain the Scouting Grading Scale and what it means.  For position players scouts look at 5 different areas: Batting, Power, Speed, Defense and Arm.  For pitching they look at they look at the pitches that the pitcher throws and his overall Command and Control.  The scale isn’t a normal scale its called the 20-80 scale, where 80 means All Star and 20 means well below average and 50 would be league average.  With that said lets take a look at today’s subject the Houston Astros.

            Houston has made a lot of bad choices with their team and that has lead them to the situation their in now.  Signing Carlos Lee and Woody Williams loosing the first 2 picks in the 2007 draft then failing to sign the first pick they actually had. (Derek Dietrich now plays for the Marlins and is the 12^th ranked player in the system.)  Even the players they signed were nothing more than back up bench players and bad picks in the years after that started the slippery slop.  But enough about how the team got to this point and look at how they’re looking in the future.

            Lets start by looking what Baseball America says about the team under General Manager Jeff Luhnow.  Out of the 30 teams the Astros are ranked as having the 9^th best system in the league.  Smart drafting and smarter trades have helped rebuild a system that had all but fallen apart, something that Luhnow has experience in doing with the Cardinals.  The team has done a smart strategy in drafts by drafting players that are cheaper but have good talent.  By doing this it lets them spend more on the later picks giving them more talent overall then super talent and then weaker after.

            The system has improved so lets look at the players that are the top ranked so far.

Carlos Correa- Born on September 22, 1994 and was the 1^st round pick in the 2012 season for the Astros actually started the new draft strategy.  Correa is a plus power hitter and a plus contact hitter and could be a gold glover but doesn’t really look like a Short Stop.  His average speed means his range will limit him so look to him to be a Third Baseman at some point unless he can work on his range.

Jonathan Singleton- Born September 18, 1991 and was the 8^th round pick by the Phillies in 2009 and is the closest to the Majors in my opinion.  I’m legitimately excited for this guy and any Astros’ fan should be, plus power and plus bat control.  Averaging out what he’s done in the minors he can average out to about 22-25 Homeruns a season hitting and an AVG of .290 to .300.  He’s not a fielder though with below average defense in LF and average at 1B with below average speed means his future is at 1B.

George Springer: Born on September 19, 1989 and was drafted in the 2011 by the Astros and could be as good as Singleton given time.  Unlike Singleton, Springer needs some time since he hasn’t had a season above AA so far but in the High A division he showed the talent to help the team using his speed, defense and bat were amazing and good defense means he could be a 5 tool player in the majors.  He may not be a Homerun hitter that will match Singleton but look to be a 15-20 with a .300+ Avg.

Lance McCullers Jr.: Born October 2, 1993 and drafted in 2012 as a supplemental pick, he’s young and has lots of talent.  His Fastball is that can reach 100MPH, though normally sits at 93-97MPH, and a devastating Slider that will feed the Fastball.  His changeup needs work but for now it can be used when he needs it.  McCullers is getting used to the starters workload so it’s going to take time for him to get himself settled.

Delino DeShields Jr.: Born August 16, 1992 and was the 1^st round pick by the Astros in 2010.  He’s fast, very fast.  On the scouting scale he has a 75 in speed so his speed can be a game changer and isn’t his only talent making him a threat on the bases and with an increased patience at the plate he could be a good lead off hitter.  He could become a average power player but he’s better off focusing on hitting using his speed as a weapon.  His glove and arm are both solid so if his path to the majors is still blocked by Altuve he could go to CF.

This is a small sample of what the Astros have in store for the future and these guys could be seeing the majors in a few years.  When they get up there we very well may see a reborn Astros and back to the glory days of the Killer B’s.

Top 10 and Bottom Power Rankings for May 15

            Ok so it’s been two weeks since the last Power Rankings so lets take a look and see how much has changed.

1)   St. Louis Cardinals: Wow this team is showing that it isn’t just he best team in the NL.  Pitching has been a strong point that I personally thought would be the downfall.  The bullpen became a strength with Edward Mujica becoming the teams closer.  This could be a fun team to watch from this point forward.

2)   Baltimore Orioles: Like I’ve been saying this team has a lot of talent and can keep up with the best teams.  Both pitching and hitting doing solid work this is the team that has the best shot to upset the AL East.

3)  Atlanta Braves: Still going strong but I worry that the teams weak hitting is going to catch up with them at some point.  Pitching and defense is keeping them a float and as long as that survives they’ll be fine.

4)   Texas Rangers: Strong hitting and pitching is doing well not much to say.

5)   New York Yankees: I’m impressed with this team I really am.  They have enough players on the DL to actually man a field and yet somehow they are still one of the stronger teams in the AL.  With Granderson coming back soon I can only see them get stronger.

6)   Boston Red Sox: Been struggling lately, not really a hit on the team as a whole moving them down this far from the top spot.  But the thing that makes them drop is the major hit to the bullpen that they took.  Losing not just 1 of their top pitchers but 2 in the same day is a blow for anyone of these teams.

7)   Cincinnati Reds: Team seems to be stabilizing a little bit, with the hitting coming through for them and the pitching doing better.  Young team with a lot of talent.

8)   San Francisco Giants:  Offense is doing better than I was expecting even with the pitching kind of having an off week.

9)   Detroit Tigers:  Finally doing what we expected.  Sanchez and Scherzer holding down the rotation like aces almost making people forget that Verlander hasn’t been great lately.

10)   1)    Arizona Diamondbacks: A team that has quietly been very consistent and very good over the last two weeks mainly because of good hitting and Paul Goldschmidt.  How long they can sustain this or just if they can is yet to be seen.

So unlike last time I’m going to have the bottom 5 at the same time.

26) Chicago Cubs: Weak hitting and pitching, but at least they have signs of life.  The signing of Anthony Rizzo is a good move for them moving forward.

27) Chicago White Sox: Sorry Chi Sox fans but the teams just not that good.  If it helps they are starting to turn things around.

28) Anaheim Angels: Wow this is a team I didn’t expect to put on a list like this.  For a more detailed reasoning go read my “Struggles of the Angels” and find out what’s wrong with them.

29) Florida Marlins: They’re still a terrible team and a coin toss from being the worst in baseball.  While I still think they are worse than the team under them under my own criteria I set for my rankings I cant put them there.

30) Houston Astros: This isn’t a shock to anyone.  They score runs, which is good, but the pitching is just so terrible that they had to be put down here.  Not going to sugar coat this one they are playing like the worst team in baseball.

The Struggles of the Angels

            I love my Astros.  I wear my jerseys about 2-3 times a week showing my pride for such a bad team and yes I do admit we are bad.  But I’m also an Anaheim Angels fan; I love my Angles since I was a kid growing up watching them and going to games.  I remember when they were the California Angels with Chili Davis, Tim Salmon and Jimmy Edmonds.  So looking at the team now all I can say is what is happening to this team?  A team that is as bad as the Astros and Marlins at this point lets take a look at the struggles of the Angels.

            First lets take a look at the teams basic stats; a season Batting Average of .257 putting them middle of the pack in the league having the 10^th best average.  The teams OBP is .316, 20^th overall and a SLG of .409 which puts them 13^th overall.  In terms of AVG and SLG alone they’re middle of the road, even OPS is ok at .724 13^th overall.  What is bad is that OBP and here’s why, a BB% of 8%, this as a team with Pujols, Trout, Hamilton and Howie Kendrick that’s bad.  The K% isn’t that terrible at 20% defiantly could be better and it’s low enough that a team that was walking could overcome this.  As an example Oakland A’s have a BB% of 12% is the best in the majors so far and a K% of 21%.  This seems like minor difference but that 4% that the A’s walk more means that’s a lot more runners on base; the A’s OBP is .340.

            There’s to the Angles failings then just not getting on base, in fact it’s keeping them off the bases.  They own the 3^rd highest Errors total with 27 errors, that’s just bad.  Their Fielding Percentage is currently 4^th worst at .979 (right above the last team I did a overview of, the Nationals), which shows that the team that was touted with such a good defense and this is what they get so far.  I honestly think they would do better and will do better here over time; this is the easiest thing to overcome for the Angels in my opinion.

            The worst problem for the Angles is the pitching, all the pitching.  The pitching was a weak area in the beginning of the season but with the offense as potent as it was supposed to be we figured that this would have been balanced out.  But with the loose of their ace, Jared Weaver, the pitching has just been leaderless with no one really taking the reins.  The bullpen is in worse shape then the starting rotation but this isn’t really saying too much with a team ERA of 4.68 with ranks 28^th overall and a BAA is currently ranked 26^th at .263.  These are killing the team and there’s no relief in sight so far.  It doesn’t help that the team leads the majors in BB’s allowed and has a team OBP of .342 which is the 2^nd worst in the majors.  In the end the Angels need help badly here and getting Weaver back isn’t nearly enough, they need to trade for a young arm that can fit into that 2^nd pitcher slot.  That or they really need the have guys like CJ Wilson or Tommy Hanson to step up and pitch like the guys were or can be.

            I want to highlight 1 player in particular as a problem for the team and it’s a guy that’s not going anywhere anytime soon, Josh Hamilton.  With a K% of 28% he is easily one of the most define reasons the team is struggling with the Strikeouts.  His string rate in the zone this year is at 80% and outside the zone is currently at 43%, the scary thing about this is the fact that its down from his career.  This needs to change and it wont is the major problem.  All is not doom and gloom in the land of the Angels, one person that I’ll mention as a good sign for the team is Mark Trumbo.  An increased BB% rate from his career rate with a decreased swing rate outside the zone is a sign that he’s starting the see the ball better.  The one thing that is worrisome is the increased FB/HR rate, which is almost 10% higher than his career line of 19% to 27%.  That might be unsustainable.  Another thing to look at is the BABIP is higher than his career which means that he is getting lucky but a good sign is the BABIP has been higher 2 years now so this could be a trend.

            All in all the team is bad and if its not changed fast they’re going to fight the Marlins and the Astros for the worst team in the majors.  It’s not something I want to say but I can see the team pulling it together and start turning things around.  There are signs that things are starting to right themselves from time to time but if the pitching doesn’t get better there’s no chance they even get a wild card spot.  That’s what the stats tell me.

The End of Roy Halladay?

            I’ve played baseball for over 15 years; softball and baseball both.  Growing up I became more and more acquainted with players that as a boy I never even thought about.  I went from knowing just the Angels and Astros, my favorite team, to knowing the entire minor league system of the Astros till I finally started memorizing players on every team not just my favorites.  In all those years there was a name that I knew and watched him grow from a prospect to the most dominate pitcher, arguably, in the game today.  Roy Halladay was always a workhorse averaging 230 innings pitched from 2006-2011 and his career K/9 ratio of 6.95 is amazing; combine that with a BB/9 of 1.89 means he has a career K/BB ratio of 3.67.  The man averaged almost 4 strikeouts before he gave a walk up; these are some monster numbers for the pitcher.  So it comes with a heavy heart to say this but we’ve seen the last of the dominant Roy Halladay and it went just as fast as his fastball.

            Baseball, much like every sport, has the “peak years” where the player is going to be the best he ever can be.  These in baseball are considered 26-31; these are the peak years for most batters.  Now the peak years for pitchers are different since there aren’t any.  If we’ve learned anything from pitchers like Pettitte and Lincecum is that age doesn’t determine when skills start to decline and the same goes with Halladay who has pitched his best years in his early to mid 30’s.  So when we start looking at stats remember that this isn’t an age thing to explain a sudden decline, though that is certainly a factor, the stats show us that there’s more to it than just natural decline.

            As I stated in the opening of this report Halladay’s stats are amazing, but lets start looking at some of the sabermetric stats and get a better look.  Halladay owns a career 3.37 ERA that is very good and he also owns a career 3.37 FIP, this does tend to be higher than a persons ERA so its impressive he sits on an even scale.  A strand rate (LOB%) of 73% and if you look at his Ground Ball rate, 54.3%, (GB%) it looks like a good reason to have such a LOB%.  So is there a reason I’m brining this all up?  Just to emphasis how BAD he’s been the last 2 seasons.  First thing ill bring up is the reports of the change in arm slot, and look at tape of his early days to now there is a change, he’s opened his arm slightly and that can affect his pitches.  Also today it was announced that he has bone spurs and some other issues in his throwing shoulder that includes his labrum.  Personally I’m not high on the outcome of the surgery Halladay’s going to be having because of his age.

            Lets turn our attention at his stats and see what they tell us.  Lets look at pitchers BABIP (Batting Average on Balls in Play) first yes pitchers have a BABIP against them.  Halladay’s career BABIP is .296 which seems high but its not terrible, remember this is a luck factor and things like fielder errors have an effect.  Given the struggles of Halladay one would expect that he may be getting unlucky but in fact he’s got very little difference, the last 2 seasons have a .301 in 2012 and a .267 so far in 2013.  This means last year he was a bit unlucky but not to drastically and this year Halladay’s been “lucky” so far.  A career .250 AVG and a .256 2012 and .246 2013 means he’s actually doing well in keeping the batters off the bases but here’s the kicker.  The last 2 seasons his LOB% has been 69.1% in 2012 and 50% this year, a 20% drop.  He’s keeping them off but when they get on he’s letting them come around at a lot higher rate then normal.

The biggest difference in Halladay’s pitching’s is the rate of which he gives up fly balls, this doesn’t sound important but what this means is that batters are getting the ball into the air.  Balls in the air lead to Homeruns and when your career HR/FB rate (homerun to Fly Ball rate) is 10% and the last 2 seasons have yielded a 12% in 2012 not bad but a 28% so far in 2013!  Wow that’s just terrible, with the lack of velocity on the fastball, his most thrown pitch, he’s getting hit harder then normal.  Halladay also isn’t getting batters to swing as much as normal; this year he’s only got a swing rate of 22% outside the zone and 65% in the zone.  If he cant fool batters he’s going to have a hard time to get outs.

In the end this really doesn’t look good for Halladay and I personally think its over for him.  The stats don’t lie but he’s trending down, I have nothing but glowing praises for the man but his career is most likely over.

Power Rankings Bottom 5

By popular demand from my peers here is the bottom 5 in all of baseball.

26) San Diego Padres- Not saying much, they need help.

27) Chicago Cubs- Ya they need help too.

28) Chicago White Sox- Surprising how bad the pitching has been, won’t be here after a week or two.

29) Houston Astros- Hey at least they can score runs!....as well as give up lots of runs.  Also I’m an Astros fan so I have bias here.

30) Miami Marlins- Without Stanton this is a lineup that will struggle even more than normal.  Say what you will about Houston but at least they can punish pitchers for making mistakes, cant say the same about Miami.

Beginning of the Season Power Rankings

So I decided that at least twice a month I want to look at team Power Rankings on my personal scale.  I look at more than just a record to determine my rankings since there are more variables to look at.  What I’m going to do is look at stats like team OBP, SLG, OPS, ERA and more to try and back up my claims.  Along with my personal feelings that I feel about a team and if they’d beat a team head to head.  That’s where the stats really come into play in my decision-making.  So without further delay here is my top 10 Power Rankings.

1)   Boston Red Sox: Hard to argue with the best record in baseball but it goes beyond that.  They’re a team that is scoring runs (3^rd in the Majors) without hitting many HR’s.  Having the Leagues 3^rd highest Avg. doesn’t hurt they’re argument for being the top team.  The pitching is getting the job done as well with solid starts, 14 quality starts, and having the leagues lowest batting average against (BAA) with a .224, a full 10 points below the 2^nd best team.

2)   Atlanta Braves: They just play solid ball and have great pitching.  One thing that worries me is the offense is being driven by Justin Upton and, before his injury, Freddie Freeman.  If the team wants to keep up the pass they need to get some more bats going.  I do think they will and when they do look out!

3)   Texas Rangers: When push comes to shove I never have trusted their bullpen or their starting pitching much.  The offense is dynamic and strong but if the pitching falls so do they.  This is the argument I had with myself putting them behind the Braves.  Darvish is pitching like an ace and if he can continue the pitching this could be quite a showdown.

4)   Baltimore Orioles: Yes you heard me right; I’m putting them ahead of the Yankees.  But don’t start screaming at me just yet since this was close.  Looking at the stats I mentioned Baltimore was beating or just behind the Yanks by a good margin.  Everyone passed on the Orioles as a fluke last year and guess what they’re still doing the same things they did last year, I’m sold on them this year and they may very well get better by seasons end.

5)   Oakland Athletics: I love good pitching and guess what they have good pitching.  Along with a lineup that is under appreciated they’re a team that is going to be dangerous to meet up with in the playoffs.

6)   St. Louis Cardinals: easily the best team in the NL Central at the moment.  A good lineup and an above average starting staff are going to carry them far this year.  What will end up killing them though is a weakish bullpen without Jason Motte, I worry that this will be the downfall of the Cards and the Reds may capitalize on.

7)   New York Yankees: They’re surviving, that’s all I can say.  They’ll be much stronger when they get Granderson back but don’t expect Teixeira to do much when he gets back.  Could use more starters but good overall a strong survivor.

8)   San Francisco Giants: I have a feeling that the teams pitching problems will work themselves out.  I worry a little about Cain but not that much.

9)   Washington Nationals: I picked them for the World Series and I stand by that.

10)                  Pittsburgh Pirates: Playing well and they could be a surprise.