MLB 2013 Spread Sheet

So who has wondered what I ment when i kept bringing up this "spread sheet" during TiT? Well thanks to Jason i have finally found a way to upload the spread sheet to my blog so everyone can see what I did and the work it took.

https://docs.google.com/file/d/0B2CJdzjtT2fua3ZHZ0RkdHYyNUk/edit

this link will take you to the google doc section where you can view my spread sheet.  Now you will need Excel to see this (obviously) but i hope you enjoy the work I do/did during the season.

Off Season Moves-Part 1

Off Season Moves

            Well the Off Season has officially begun and the signings/trades are coming fast.  For today lets look at a few of the big moves and I want to give my opinion.  Note that I’m not going to get to stat heavy since his is my opinion of the contracts and place the players going more that the stats.  So lets start with the biggest signing of the off-season.  This will be broken up from time to time since theres alot of moves so itll be a few moves at a time.

Robinson Cano- Mariners, 10yr 240mil.  I don’t like this deal in a few ways.  Lets start with the positives: It’s a good signing for Seattle to show they mean business and they want to compete.  OK bad things: Cano is going to a pitchers park (though career Safe Co numbers not that bad) so there will be a production drop.  He’s costing way too much money, no sports person in the history of sports is or was worth that much.  Seattle has no OF as of know that’s been in the league for over 2 years and none of them are very good.  The list kind of goes on from there but to say the least this deal is a make or break deal.

Curtis Granderson- Mets, 4yr 60mil.  This is an interesting deal but one that I think the Mets may regret.  Granderson is an older player and was valuable because he was a speed and power threat, but his speed is disappearing fast and the power is going to decline fast.  Injuries are also a main concern when it comes to Granderson who has missed significant time do to injuries.  Granderson should have stayed in the AL where he could DH and focus on hitting and staying healthy, he’s not a slouch in the field by any account but a rest is good for him.

Brian McCann- Yankees, 5yr 85mil.  This feels like an over paid contract but he has the best potential to help the Yankees then any other option.  The Yankees needed a catcher and McCann was the best on the market and being a DH half the time means his bat can help more often.  Now I’m not a fan of the length of neither the contract nor the price, as I said this was a deal that they needed to make but at the cost of signing a 32-year-old injury prone C to a 5 year deal worth 17 million a year?  Bottom line this is a basic contract for this situation; teams are going to over pay for what they need.

Jacoby Ellsbury- Yankees, 7yr 153mil.  This is a deal I like but much like McCann it’s a little too pricey for a guy that is as injury prone as he is.  Ellsbury is one of the best leadoff hitters in the game so this is defiantly going to help the Yankees who had a very hard time with OBP last year.  In the end this signing is going to help the team in the current season and going forward.

Carlos Beltran- Yankees, 3yr 48mil.  I don’t like signing 38 yr old players but Beltran can help the Yankees with power and OBP.  He’s regressing and that’s not a shock but he can still help the teams OBP which as I stated they are weak in.  I can see his BA dropping each year of the contract but I can see him keeping that OBP around .360 or so.  I believe this will be a good deal in the end.

Scott Feldman- Astros, 3yr 30mil.  This is a good deal for the Astros and shows that they are trying to get ready for the future.  He’s there to be an inning eater and act as team “Ace” till Cosart is ready to take that title for himself.  Feldman can also be traded and get some good prospects back in return.  Bottom line this is a decent deal for the team and cheap.

Free Agent Outlook: Ubaldo Jimenez

Free Agent Outlook: Ubaldo Jimenez

            First was a batter now lets take a look at a pitcher that could be quite interesting in the offseason.  Jimenez has had a rough few years since being the ace of the Rookies staff but made a bit of resurgence with Cleveland this past season.  The main question we have is how consistent can Jimenez stay and can he still be effective going forwards, he had a good year but it wasn’t without flaws.  So lets take a look at one of the better pitchers in the free agency pool Ubaldo Jimenez.

Control

            Jimenez has had a lot of control issues having a BB/9 rate of 3.94 last season and 4.87 the year before that.  A career 4.10 BB/9 is really bad but Jimenez can also strike out a ton of batters as well, a K/9 of 9.56 last year and 7.28 the year before.  A career 8.27 K/9 guy doesn’t just show up in the market that often and there will be teams really weighing the options with just this stat alone.  He can also limit the HR’s pretty well having a .79 HR/9 rate; he also had a 1.27 the year before but looking at his career .73 HR/9 rate this seems to have just been an anomaly.  Bottom line is simple, Jimenez is not wild but he isn’t a pinpoint thrower either, if a team takes a chance on him they need to have a strong defense behind him since if he walks to many it could be ugly.

Pitches

            Jimenez has quite the selection of pitches to choose in his arsenal.  These include a fastball (and the variants such as the cutter and 2 seamer), curveball, slider, split finger and change-up.  Now sabermetrics cant “rate” pitches like they do in traditional scouting using the 20-80 scale, but we do have a way to rank his pitches using the stat called Pitchf/x and to quote www.fangraphs.com

“PITCHf/x is a pitch tracking system, created by Sportvision, and is installed in every MLB stadium since 2007. This system tracks the velocity, movement, release point, spin, and pitch location for every pitch thrown in baseball, allowing pitches and pitchers to be analyzed and compared at a detailed level”

            So using this stat we can look at the value of pitchers pitches and right now lets look at what Jimenez ranked.

Fastball: -1.3

2-Seamer: -5.1

Cutter: 1.0

Splitter: -1.1

Slider: 7.0

Curveball: 0.3

Change-up: 3.1

What these numbers mean is how many runs his pitches saved above the average.  If the average is at 0.0 that means his fastball was worth -1.3 runs so it was slightly below average.  Just a disclaimer here, just because a pitch is listed in the Pitchf/x stat that doesn’t mean he actually HAS that pitch but a pitch that meets the criteria of the defined pitch, it also doesn’t mean he threw the pitch often as others.  Seeing this listing we can see his best pitches were his slider averaging 7.0 runs above average (RAA) and his Change-up at 3.1 RAA.  Historically these have been his best pitches even in his Rockies days.  Some signs to watch for is the fact that his FB and 2-Seamer have been trending down since 2010 and would while his Change-up and Slider have been improving.  Makes me think that in the future he may start relying too much on his trick pitches.  This makes me think he will continue struggle with his command if that’s the case.

ERA/FIP/WHIP

            Jimenez hasn’t had a solid ERA since 2010 and this past season is the strongest season (ERA wise) since that year.  Jimenez has a career ERA is a poor 3.92 and a career WHIP of 1.35, which is also pretty poor.  Like I stated earlier Jimenez has a problem with the BB and this is the reason for the high WHIP, which leads to high R totals.  Just like dominos one thing leads to another.  This last season though was a very good campaign for him, an ERA of 3.30 and a WHIP of 1.33.  The WHIP is a little high but the ERA was solid; his FIP was 14 points higher though so that means he was getting a bit lucky but not terribly.

Overlook

            When I look at Jimenez I see Lincecum and vise versa, very similar skills and weakness.  I can see him getting a good contract this off-season in the range that Lincecum got with the Giants even if I don’t think Lincecum doesn’t deserve the contract (2 year 40mil).  I can see teams like the Angels, Astros, Rangers, Royals, Yankees, Diamondbacks, Pirates, Reds, St. Louis and Phillies at least keeping an eye and kicking the tires.

Free Agent Outlook: Marlon Byrd

Free Agent Outlook: Marlon Byrd

            Well the baseball season is over but that doesn’t mean the game goes quite either.  For now what I plan on doing is looking at this seasons free agents, players that are up for a big pay day or just bench players.  I plan to also give reports on signings and my feelings on them.  This week we start with a scouting report and outlook at Marlon Byrd.

            Marlon Byrd played with two teams this season: the Mets and the Pirates and helped the Pirates get to the playoffs for the first time in many years.  Byrd is an ageless wonder; he will be 36 by the beginning of the 2014 season and will turn 37 near the end of the season and has had some of his best seasons in the last few years hitting for power and not killing the team hitting for AVG.  Lets take a quick look at Byrd and see what he has in store for this offseason.

Offense

            Byrd is a career .280/.336/.425 slash line with a K/BB ratio of 2.8, this is good and slightly above average overall though his K/BB rate could be better being on the lower end.  Byrd has an OPS of .760, which is middle of the road much like his OBP and SLG would imply.  Now one thing that does stand out is the rise in ISO in the last few years: .164, .194, .119, .035(injured), and last season a .220 a pretty big jump.  His power can flux a bit but I don’t think he’s a power guy overall, his only 2 seasons with 20+ HR’s were the 09 with the Rangers and last years splitting time with the Mets and Pirates.  I see him as a 10 HR guy but he’s not going to be paid like one this offseason.

            His contact rate has been in decline slowly since 09 where he had a 79% contact rate.  Last season he ended the season with a 72% contact rate, which is the biggest drop since the 09 season.  His lowering Contact rate is starting to become a trend and one that teams need to recognize.  Combine this with a rising K/BB rate teams need to note that his AVG is going to dip bad at some point and if the lowering Contact rate and rising Swing% are to be believed id actually say its going to be sooner.

Defense

            Bryd has never had a strong arm but he is fast and has decent defense.  He has a career .986 Fielding Percentage which is decent for his position but this again is his career percentage and many of his other stats are on the decline.  His FSR (Fan Scouting Report) has been on the decline since 09, on a scale where -15 is awful and 15 Byrd rates a -6.  His UZR tells a similar story; rating on the same scale as FSR he ranks a 15.6 for his career.  Now last year Byrd rated a 2.4, which is just barely average, in 09 Byrd had a 10.2 and has had it dropping fast since then.  Sad to say Byrd is becoming more and more of a DH rather than a OF and this should become a factor when a team signs him.

Outlook

            Byrd made 6.5 million in 2012 and 700K in 2013 roughly averaging 3.5 million since the 09 season mostly playing in the NL.  Given what he did last season Byrd is going to find many teams that could use him but seeing how the he is trending down any team that signs him is getting a diminished return.  I wouldn’t be shocked to see a 2-year deal worth 10-15 million.  Personally I see either the Baltimore O’s or the Seattle Mariners, teams that could use a good DH and still let Byrd play the field if he demands it.

World Series Recap

World Series Recap

            What a crazy and fun World Series this year!  For the first time in recent memory we had the 2 statistically best teams in the AL and NL in the World Series.  This was one of the best-matched World Series in years where both teams had very identical skills in strength and weaknesses making it fun to watch.  Boston actually looked like it was going to have issues early when they just couldn’t stop the Errors from happening.  One leading to one of the most interesting and controversial endings where we had the game won on an obstruction call.  After looking many times that call was spot on (check rule 2.00 if you don’t believe me) and while it didn’t matter in the end I’m sure would have been the rallying cry for Boston fans and Boston to protest.  But instead it became their rallying cry and won the rest of the way and even had the game end on a pickoff the next game out.  St. Louis had issues hitting consistently after the first 3 games and slowly allowed Boston to come back.  In the end the pitching and the hitting determined the series, the pitching for Boston was shutting down St. Louis and Boston’s hitting became timelier never allowing the Cardinals to get back into the series.  This was a fantastic series and I hope we can see more like it in the future, this is why we love baseball.

Boston Red Sox: Hitting

AVG	RISP	OBP	SLG	OPS	GPA	BABIP	SB%	K%	BB%	K/BB
.211	.250	.291	.330	.621	.213	.336	100%	27%	10%	2.8

Pitching

ERA	WHIP	FIP	K/9	BB/9	K/BB	GB/FB	HR/FB
1.86	1.09	2.68	4.8	4.4	3.3	.87	3%

St. Louis Cardinals: Hitting

AVG	RISP	OBP	SLG	OPS	GPA	BABIP	SB%	K%	BB%	K/BB
.224	.214	.272	.279	.550	.192	.306	100%	20%	6%	3.3

Pitching

ERA	WHIP	FIP	K/9	BB/9	K/BB	GB/FB	HR/FB
4.15	1.19	3.08	6.6	2.3	3.1	.92	8%

The Irrelevance of Closers and Saves

The Irrelevance of Closers and Saves

            The saves stat was made an official stat back in 1969 and developed by many baseball Executives to give a stat to a pitcher that was able to close out closer games.  The number was set to 3 runs or less for the traditional save, there are more ways to get saves but they don’t show up as often as the basic 3 runs or less option; the closer can also be called on to pitch more than one inning if the need fits, the closer tends to be the “best” pitcher in the bullpen and is the most trusted pitcher the manager has.  The top closer in the games history is, arguably, Mariano Rivera with an astounding 652 saves.  Every thing I just said is fact, with that said I hate the closer role and the S (saves) stat in general.

            If you’ve been reading my blog from the start or heard one of my earlier rants on Turducken is Tasty on the subject you’ve heard me say before I hate the closer role and today I plan on going into I bit more detail.  Now this is all my opinion from this part forward mixed in with stats if I feel they are needed, and with me saying that you don’t have to agree with my views just hear me out.

            The closer is considered by many to be the best pitcher in the bullpen and given his job he needs to be.  Mariano Rivera, Billy Wagner, Trevor Hoffman and Dennis Eckersly are all guys that are synonymies with the closer role.  So I’ll pose the main question to all the people who defend the stat that: Why do you wait to use your best pitcher?  Now this isn’t 100% true all the time granted but how many games could have been won that were lost in critical situations?  Many times just this last season I shock my head at managers that want to hold their closers till the ninth when their fighting to keep the lead in the 7^th.  Lets look at an example of this biting the team in the butt; this post season we saw the Dodgers beat the Braves to move on to the NLCS.  One of the most critical moments came in game 3 when the Braves were up and the Dodgers were pressing hard on the relief.  It was the bottom of the 8^th with 1 out and 2 on; David Carpenter was pitching and struggling.  Why wasn’t Kimbrel in?  I said this just before Carpenter gave up a HR that took the lead away from the Braves and Kimbrel sat down from warming up.  In that situation you wanted your best and he’s the best; why wasn’t he in?  Two reasons 1) Walt Wiess wanted him for the 9^th and 2) Kimbrel had never pitched more than 4 batters all season.  To both of those I call bullshit; you needed the outs then and now so Kimbrel should have been in the game and for the 2^nd I don’t care he’s in the majors I think he can handle facing 5 batters with a rest in between.  Now there is no guarantee that this would have solved the problem neither but odds get better.  During game 3 of the World Series the Red Sox brought in their closer in a non-save situation and still lost, though on a bad throw not the pitchers doing.

            Other things to ask is why is the closer so much more valued rather than a pitcher that gets a lot of holds?  This years Holds leader was Joel Peralta with a 2-year 6 million deal (with a 3^rd year option).  The saves leader, by comparison, was a tie between Josh Johnson and Craig Kimbrel at 50 each.  Johnson is making roughly 13.75 million this year and last year while Kimbrel is up for a major payday.  The definition of a Hold is preserving the lead in any inning but the last, which we call a save.  Holds are starting to get more respect but as of now they seem to be overlooked since we value the Save way more and makes the closers more “valued” than regular relief pitchers.

            In the end it’s your opinion and I’ve just given a few reasons why I feel the closer is overrated and by proxy the save as well.  It’s like looking at a pitcher and saying “Oh he had 19 W’s this year he’s a great pitcher!” without noting that the pitcher had and ERA of 4.00 and a WHIP of 1.30.  We value these guys above others because they can pitch in the last inning which we feel is different than any other inning, and speaking from personal experience its no different than the 1^st.

2014 Season Awards

2014 Season Awards

            Well the season is over and the World Series between the Cardinals and Red Sox begins today.  This is an exciting time of year in the baseball world and personally I’ve enjoyed the playoffs a lot.  But that’s not what I’m going to talk about today, it’s that time of the year to look at the end of the season awards and my picks for MVP Cy Young and the rest.

American League

MVP- Miguel Cabrera- This is a harder choice than you may expect depending on what stats you look at.  His slash line is the best in baseball and his ability with the bat is starting to become legendary.  With that said his defense is bad just plain bad, he’s not the worst but he is pretty bad.  This is why his WAR or Wins Above Replacement is only 7.2, when I say 7.2 realize that this is an amazing WAR, which puts him 4^th overall in WAR for the American League.  Trout, Donaldson and Cano are the only guys above him and of those players only Trout in my mind would challenge Cabrera.  In the end the question is simply “who was the most important to his team?”  Angels didn’t make the playoffs and the Tigers did Cabrera was a massive part of that.

Cy Young-Max Scherzer- Wins mean nothing to me, nothing at all.  A pitcher with a lot of wins tells me nothing of his skills and how his season was.  I say this because I didn’t choose Scherzer because of an impressive 21 win season I choose him for an amazing K/9 (10.88) and K/BB (4.29) that really stand out.  Scherzer was able to keep the BB’s down this year which is been his problem since he as a rookie.  He was also able to limit the hits that teams had on him holding opponents to a BAA of .198, very impressive.  There are things to me that throw up a red flare that his isn’t going to happen (to this extent) next year but for now it looks like Max just turned the corner on his career.

Rookie of the Year-Wil Myers- The AL didn’t really have that many strong Rookies this year but Wil Myers is defiantly the cream of the crop, ending the season with a slash line of .293/.354/.478 is not just impressive for a rookie but a major leaguer in general.  He’s still got a lot of weak areas to iron out but he’s shown the skill to do it.

National League

MVP- Andrew McCutchen- This was a tough call between Paul Goldschmidt but much like with Cabrera the final thing I judge on is the fact that the Pirates got to the playoffs.  Not to say McCutchen didn’t have a great season, he ranked 2^nd overall in WAR only to Carlos Gomez and that’s mostly due to Gomez’s defense.  An impressive BB/9 and a good K/9 makes him a great player and will be for a few more years.

Cy Young- Clayton Kershaw- ya this isn’t a surprise.  Best pitcher in the NL and easily one of the best, if not THE best pitcher, in the game today.  I’m not sure what I can add to say how good this guy is.  An amazing K/9 and the ability to not give up BB make him solid and easily the best pitcher in the NL.

Rookie of the Year- Jose Fernandez- This is one of the best surprises of the year and to me had a better much stronger season then Puig.  If you want to see more about him you can read my scouting report on him here. http://calltothepen05.blogspot.com/2013/09/scouting-report-jose-fernandez.html

Biggest Surprise- Pittsburg Pirates- I was very skeptical of this team from the beginning since they have shown the talent to do what they did this year for 3 years now.  But till this year they always fell apart just before the playoffs and fell apart after the All Star break.  This year they survived on solid pitching and amazing relief pitching lead by Jason Grilli and Mark Melancon.  We can only hope that his team can keep this up and be a team to watch for years to come.

Biggest Disappointment- Washington Nationals and Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim- These teams come in a tie for most disappointing mostly for the same reason but got there differently.  The Nationals actually started to make a comeback at the end of the season but just fell short of the playoffs.  The team actually could make a run next year and I still put them up there next year.  As for the Angels, I just expected so much more.  I expected them to be at least competitive with the other teams but they only showed it once in a while.  This is still a team that has promise and as long as they have Trout and Pujols playing well they can still be a great team.  They need hitting help though, Pujol’s and Hamilton’s production is going down and they need to find help that is cheap.  They also need to find pitching help, both bullpen and rotation are weak.

Playoff Recap: Round 2

Playoff Recap- Round 2

            We had quite the oddities in this year ALCS and NLCS haven’t we.  Boston and Detroit were 2 favorites heading to the playoffs and so were LA and St. Louis.  All 4 teams were actually in the tops of a lot of categories leading to the playoffs; one of the few times I’ve seen that the top teams were in the 2^nd round all together.  Well without delay lets look at what happened during the series.

Boston Red Sox vs. Detroit Tigers- This was the battle of the best teams in the AL to be sure.  The only team that topped Boston in offensive categories was in fact Detroit so this had the potential to be a brawl, and neither team disappointed.  The pitching for both teams were spectacular, both teams ERA’s combined not topping 3.00 (2.91 to be exact).  What it came down to was the offense of both teams and who could get it done.  Pitching can win you a series but you can’t win 0-0, and this is where both teams struggled.  In fact Boston actually had a worse overall stat line than Detroit did this includes pitching.  In the end Boston’s bullpen and timely hits did just enough to topple the Tigers who’s defense ended up being just not up to the task of taking on Boston.

Boston Red Sox: Hitting

AVG	RISP	OBP	SLG	OPS	GPA	BABIP	SB%	K%	BB%	K/BB
.202	.180	.256	.332	.588	.198	.289	80%	27%	6%	4.7

Pitching

ERA	WHIP	FIP	K/9	BB/9	K/BB	GB/FB	HR/FB
3.06	1.28	3.06	4.7	2.0	2.3	1.45	4%

Detroit Tigers: Hitting

AVG	RISP	OBP	SLG	OPS	GPA	BABIP	SB%	K%	BB%	K/BB
.255	.260	.324	.332	.656	.229	.358	100%	20%	8%	2.3

Pitching

ERA	WHIP	FIP	K/9	BB/9	K/BB	GB/FB	HR/FB
2.77	1.10	2.37	8.1	2.0	4.1	1.08	10%

St. Louis Cardinals vs. Los Angeles Dodgers- Another series that pitted the best of the NL against each other and was one I watched very closely.  The Dodgers, much like Detroit, beat St. Louis in all the categories statistically.  Unlike Detroit and Boston though St. Louis won most of the pitching stats and was overall more dominate on the mound than LA.  LA was also unable to really capitalize on RISP, which is one of many factors to consider, the other major thing to consider is the bad defense of the Dodgers.  The team isn’t a bad defensive team but when it really counted the team seemed to make very simple errors that cost them runs.  Puig showed his inexperience many times and really did give the Cardinals a few more R’s than they should have had.  In the end St. Louis just hit when it counted and made sure that LA’s bats didn’t start anything.

St. Louis Cardinals: Hitting

AVG	RISP	OBP	SLG	OPS	GPA	BABIP	SB%	K%	BB%	K/BB
.211	.349	.277	.302	.579	.200	.310	100%	23%	8%	2.8

Pitching

ERA	WHIP	FIP	K/9	BB/9	K/BB	GB/FB	HR/FB
2.09	0.95	2.80	5.6	1.2	4.5	1.47	7%

Los Angeles Dodgers: Hitting

AVG	RISP	OBP	SLG	OPS	GPA	BABIP	SB%	K%	BB%	K/BB
.211	.200	.252	.337	.589	.198	.284	100%	24%	5%	4.5

Pitching

ERA	WHIP	FIP	K/9	BB/9	K/BB	GB/FB	HR/FB
3.27	1.09	2.71	5.6	2.0	2.8	1.30	4%