Free Agent Outlook: Adam LaRoche

Free Agent Outlook: Adam LaRoche

            It this era of pitching every team is trying desperately to gather up as much hitting as possible.  Any hitting they can capitalize on to give the team an edge over the other lineup.  Most teams will do what they can to avoid hitters like Seth Smith, who is a solid hitter but to situational, but an all-around hitter like Adam LaRoche is going to get a lot of looks from teams this offseason.  The real question is how long this spry young 35-year-old left handed power hitter will hold up after coming off a strong 2014 season.

	BB%	K%	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	wOBA	wRC+	WAR
2014	14.0%	18.4%	.259	.362	.455	.817	.196	.277	.356	127	1.6
2013	12.2%	22.2%	.237	.332	.403	.735	.166	.277	.321	102	0.5
Career	10.3%	21.8%	.264	.340	.472	.811	.208	.302	.348	113	12.1

            LaRoche has had a very solid career thus far and for a guy that seems to take the first month of the season off he does end the season very strong on average.  2014 was a nice bounce back for the well-traveled first baseman and most interesting is the fact that he did all this with the lowering BABIP.  Then again batting average has never been LaRoche’s strength it’s his power and his ability to take a walk.  Oh he gets hits and does on average hit above the league average but he isn’t what we’d call a consistent hitter.

Pros:

            LaRoche isn’t a contact hitter but every good stat guy knows one thing about batting average, it’s a terrible measurment of a players skills.  On the other hand what is very impressive and is what LaRoche is going to rely on for another payday is the power numbers he’s had.  He averages an extra base hit every 9 plate appearances and that is counting doubles and triples.  That is a very strong total for a guy who’s BABIP is right at the league average.  Not only does he have power to rely on but his ability to take a walk is good as well.  In an era of the free swingers LaRoche manages to balance it out and be highly successful.

Cons: LaRoche is 34 as of now and will 35 before the start of next season.  This is the time players really start to show signs of regression due to age and LaRoche has already quietly shown them.  Injuries have been an issue for him since 2011 when he first signed with the team and only played 43 games with the team.  While I said LaRoche is a good walker he also is a free swinger and does have a high strikeout rate, something that isn’t going to get better since with age comes slowing bat speed.  Lower power numbers will follow lower bat speed and lower contact rates so his OBP will likely take a hit at some point.  His defense is bad and I mean really bad but at least he is at first base and that isn’t as big of a deal.

Contract: This is a hard one to gauge since he’s going to be wanted by teams but he’s still 35.  His contract he had was a 2-year $24 million with a option for a 3^rd year, an option that the Nationals declined already, but is he really worth that kind of money?  At this point now he’s not since any team who signs him will have to take age into account and no matter how offensively good LaRoche was last year but his age and defense will hurt his next contract.  If I had to guess he will get a 1-year deal but with a team option with for a 2^nd year.  As for money I would gauge that he could make about 9.5 million for the first year and a 7 million option.  Will this happen?  I really can’t say since my estimation is just that, an estimation, and I have a feeling he’ll be seeking much more.

Teams:

Baltimore Orioles- This is all depending on the faith they have on Chris Davis.  Davis was a shadow of himself in 2014 but the real issue for the Orioles is that Davis was closer to his career totals in 2014 than 2013 was.  If the team wants to build up the impressive offense they’ve developed and they have the funds to sign LaRoche than this could be a good landing spot.

New York Yankees- The team needs hitting and he’s a very strong hitter that could help.  The issue is he’s 35 in 2015 and the team doesn’t need an older player when they’re trying to get younger.  The budget is going to be a question since we don’t know if the team is going to try and save money or just go all out.

Oakland Athletics- Considering the offensive woes of the team at the end of the season the team could be looking to upgrade.  The main issue will be the money involved since the team’s budget is one of the smaller budgets and if the team is serious on retaining Jon Lester.  If the team goes with Lester then they may miss out on the LaRoche bidding.

Seattle Mariners- The team is looking to upgrade offense but the last thing they need is another left-handed batter.  The team needs a new 1^st baseman but really the money might not be there and again they don’t need another lefty power hitter.

Washington Nationals- He was on this team last year and they would probably be the frontrunners to retain his services.  He’s a good fit in Washington and it may even come at a discount.  Yes they didn’t give him the option for a 3^rd year but that doesn’t mean they don’t want him anymore just a new contract.

Milwaukee Brewers- Offense was up and down for this team last year and they could use someone that could stabilize them.  A strong fit in the lineup but at the same time the team doesn’t really have a major budget to sign him.  Thanks to the Braun contract the team is going to have to be cheap for a while.

San Diego Padres- I’ve said this before and I’ll say it again, this team is better than they were in 2014.  LaRoche could be a good fit for a team that doesn’t have a solid 1^st base option since Yonder Alonso hasn’t been everything that the team wanted from him.  This is definitely a stretch for the team to actually show interest and sign him but it’s always an option.

Free Agent Outlook: Seth Smith

            Trying to find the next new trend seems to be the hot thing in baseball now and days.  First was the use of the defensive shift to try and gain an advantage against power hitters and exploit their weaknesses to the max.  Managers will do anything for an edge and that doesn’t end on the defensive side in fact it works on both ends.  Players being in a platoon situation was not common but happened in the past but 2014 showed us how effective the strategy really could be and today’s player we’re looking at is, at least in my eyes, the poster child of the platoon Seth Smith.

	BB%	K%	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	wOBA	wRC+	WAR
2014	13.2%	16.7%	.266	.367	.440	.807	.174	.305	.357	133	2.6
2013	9.5%	22.9%	.253	.329	.391	.721	.139	.320	.318	102	1.1
Career	10.6%	18.6%	.265	.347	.453	.800	.188	.304	.347	112	10.3

            Smith had a lot of potential when he was drafted in the 2^nd round by the Colorado Rockies and for the most part he succeeded even if he didn’t have regular playing time until 2009 where he batted .293/.378/.510 in 387 plate appearances.  After that season though his career was very up and down with his production.  Hovering around a .253 batting average but keeping an impressive .340 OBP going.  So what was so off about him?  Well lets look at another data set and I’ll show you:

Career Splits

	BB%	K%	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	wOBA	wRC+
RHP	10.7%	18.2%	.277	.358	.481	.839	.204	.314	.362	123
LHP	10.4%	21.8%	.205	.291	.314	.605	.109	.250	.274	63

            As we can see there’s a reason I called him my “poster child” of platooning.  His numbers are just terrible versus a LHP and it really drags everything else about him down.  The Padres saw this too, they played him only when the team started a RHP and his numbers stayed very strong until a slump near the end of the season dragged him down a little.  Heck this is a guy that at one point was in the top 50 of ESPN’s player rater for hitters and he was in a platoon!

Pros:

            Smith is a good hitter from the left side; one might say he’s an all around hitter versus RHP.  He has power and a very rare ability to take a walk while still hitting for a good average.  While he did slump near the end of the season he did at one point own a .300 average with a .360 OBP, which is always a good thing to have on a team.  He has a good eye only striking out 16.7% of the time and that is his best rate since his rookie years.  Smith has shown the ability to hit to all fields not just focusing on pulling which is a very good thing considering shifts against left handed batters is very common, especially if they have power.  Speaking of power Smith is no slouch in that area having decent homerun totals for a guy playing in Petco and more importantly having a solid ISO signifying that he is hitting for more power than just homers.

Cons: Never bat him against LHP, no joke this guy is just terrible against them.  The chart above shows you the numbers and they speak for themselves.  He looks lost against LHP and that’s going to limit him in playing time, if the manager is smart that is.  Smith is a fine defender but not a great one so that is something to keep in mind when he is playing.  He is a platoon player and at 32 the odds of him getting better against LHP is 0 to none.

Contract: Smith fit into the slightly above average slot on WAR at 2.6 so he could ask for a good amount of money.  But his major weakness is going to hold back all talks of major payday since no one is going to shell out big bucks for a player that will only play against RHP, even if most pitchers in baseball are RHP.  I wouldn’t be shocked that Smith tries for a 3-year deal or at least a 2-year with an option for a third likely a team option.  Someone that is a good comparison to Seth Smith would be Brandon Moss, a fellow platoon player that only hits RHP, so we can use his $4.1 million a year deal as a good starting place and that is about what Smith could expect.  Using my best judgment I was say a $12 million for 3 year deal would be fine for him but that may be a little high.  A more likely deal would be in the range of $8 million for 2 years with a team option for a third and the option likely worth $3 million.

Teams:

New York Yankees: The Yankees are going to need some pop in their lineup next season and Smith has 2 things they could use.  He is an experienced hitter with the ability to hit for average and power but walk as well.  The second thing is Smith will be cheaper than other options on the market at this time.  Good field for Smith as well who could spread the ball around in that outfield.  The only thing that is a snag is if the Yankees can find a good right-handed batter to go against LHP when Smith is benched.

Cleveland Indians: The Indians have a rather weak outfield outside of Michael Brantly and they could use an upgrade to David Murphy.  Though Murphy was decent for most of the year he did have his fair share of struggles.  Smith would be an upgrade to what Smith did last year but the same issue as the Yankees shows up.  The team doesn’t have a strong right-handed batter to platoon with Smith, which limits his value.

Detroit Tigers: This team has been showing up in my recent articles a lot and for good reason.  The team needs help and they have to spend money to do it; lucky for them though Smith would come relatively cheap and the team has the bonus of having a deeper outfield staff to platoon him with.  Really not a terrible option for the team but more likely to go for Alex Rios than Smith.

New York Mets: Hey what do you know they both made a list for once!  Yes the Mets outfield is a mess and while Smith would be an upgrade he still has the same issues as their neighbors.  Signing Smith would require them to find a strong right-handed batter to platoon since they don’t have one now.

Pittsburgh Pirates: While im almost 100% certain that the team is going to be using Gregory Polanco as their starting RF but with Polanco struggling after a quick surge he did slump so Smith could be an option.  It’s a long shot but it is a possibility.

San Diego Padres: This is a choice just because it’s where he came from and the team could use him.  The injury-plagued 2014 season was a lost season for the team but they do have a good team they just need to stay healthy and all they need those players that struggled to step it up.