Understanding the Math: Part 2

Understanding the Math: Part 2

The Seidman Starting Pitching Effectiveness Model

            Have you ever looked at your team and wondered who’s your team Ace?  Has your team recently signed a player to a contract that you wonder if he’s being paid too much?  Well the numbers during the season are going to determine this but there is a way to see how effective your pitcher has been.  In the second part of this ongoing series were going to look at some stats that are very useful to gauge a pitchers effectiveness during the season.

Quality Start/Adjusted Quality Start

            A Quality Start (QS) is a pitcher that goes at least 6 innings and gives up no more than 3 runs.  This has come under fire from many fans because this would leave the pitcher with an ERA of 4.50 and that doesn’t really define “quality” to many, myself included.  This is where Adjusted Quality Start comes into play where you can adjust the scale to what is more “quality”.  To me I count quality starts as the stat as normal but I also go through the pitchers game log and find games where the pitcher went 7 innings and gave up no more than 3 runs giving the pitcher an 3.90 which seems more quality to me.

WHIP: Walk and Hits per Inning Pitched

(BB+H)/IP

            When your gauging a pitchers value you really want to look at stats that deal more with things a pitcher has control over: walks, hits and HR’s are things a pitcher can control and that’s where WHIP comes in.  WHIP deals with 2 of the 3 common things a pitcher can control and is a far better way to gauge how well a pitcher is doing.  Since a pitcher has far more control what a hitter does than the fielding having a higher WHIP actually shows how the pitcher is doing as an individual and without team influence.  A strong WHIP for a SP would be around 1.33 and for a RP an ideal WHIP would be closer to 1.00 to 1.10.

K:BB ratio

K/BB

            The strikeout is one of the pitchers best weapons and the more strikeouts make for a better pitcher.  Well that’s not always the case and in fact it’s just as common to see a pitcher with a high K% matched by an equally high BB%.  By studying the K:BB ratio you can compare the number of strikeouts a pitcher is getting compared to the walks total.  The higher the number means the pitcher is striking out more hitters while limiting the walks.  A league average K:BB would be roughly 7:3 or any combination like this.

The Seidman Starting Pitching Effectiveness Model

            This is a good way to see what position the pitcher has earned based on his stats.  This system isn’t very efficient when doing current numbers but works very well with after season numbers.  Using this model all you’d need to do is put in the numbers and do a little calculation and see what number you get.

Stats	Scale
Games Started (GS)	30+=5
	25-29=3
	20-24=2
	Under 20=0
IP	230+=8
	220-229=7
	200-219=5
	150-199=3
	100-149=2
	Under 100=0
Innings Pitched/Games Started (IP/GS)	7.0+=8
	6.5-6.99=7
	6.0-6.49=5
	5.5-5.99=3
	5.1-5.49=0
	Under 5.1=-5
Cheap Wins	-1
Tough L	2
Legit W	2
Legit L	-2
Adjusted Quality Start Percent (AQS%)	75% +=5
	67-74.99%=3
	50-66.99%=0
	Under 50%=-3
Adjusted Quality No Decisions (ADND)	1
WHIP	Under 1.00=5
	1.01-1.15=3
	1.16-1.25=2
	1.26-1.30=1
	1.31-1.40=0
	1.41+=-2
K:BB	6.00+=9
	5.00-5.99=8
	4.00-4.99=7
	3.00-3.99=5
	2.00-2.99=3
	1.10-1.99=0
	Under 1.10=-3
Complete Games/Shut Out (CG/SHO)	Every CG=2
	Every SHO=1 (added to CG)
NL	AL
50 or Higher=No. 1 SP	47 or Higher=No. 1 SP
36-49=No. 2 SP	34-46=No. 2 SP
27-35=No. 3 SP	25-33=No. 3 SP
15-26=No. 4 SP	14-24=No. 4 SP
1-14=No. 5 SP	1-13=No. 5 SP
Under 1=Ineffective	Under 1= Ineffective

            The only stat that I think needs explanation is the Legit W and L, Cheap W and Tough L.  These all describe a scenario that a pitcher will likely face quite often; a Legit W is a win when the pitcher gets a QS/AQS and a Legit L is a loss when the pitcher doesn’t record a QS/AQS.  A Tough lose is when a pitcher records a QS/AQS but still gets the loss.  A Cheap W win is a win a pitcher gets when the pitcher doesn’t record a QS/AQS.

            This ends the second installment and hopefully this gives everyone that is interested a nice look at some saber stats.

For more baseball news or if you have questions you can follow me on twitter @Jbiesiada

Top Potential Call Ups

Top Potential Call Ups

            Now that the trade deadline has passed the roster expansions are just around the corner.  On September 1^st teams will be allowed to use the 40-man roster but teams also like to use this time to bring up prospects to give them some time in the majors.  Today we’ll take a look at which top prospects will get that call up and see what the scouting reports say.

Arizona Diamondbacks

Archie Bradley

            Considered one of the top pitching prospects in the minors considering the issues the team has had so far they could bring him up to just give him a shot.  He’s has a big athletic frame but he can struggle with his secondary pitch.  He has good control of them but he has some issues keeping his delivery consistent and that can lead to issues.  Overall Bradley is a great prospect and could be the next big thing in the majors.  If he gets a call up he may never go back down.

FB	CH	CB
70	65	70

Baltimore Orioles

Dylan Bundy

            Much like Bradley, Bundy is one of baseballs top prospects and could see a call up to help the Orioles in their hunt for a playoff birth.  Bundy has 4 plus pitches that include a Cutter, Curveball, Change-up and Fastball all of which is over 50 on the 20-80 scale.  He has issues with keeping the ball to high in the zone and worse has an issue of leaving his off-speed pitches high in the zone.  He has good control but can get to firm in his pitching with leads to issues.  Bundy could be an ace very soon and a quite call up could be the start.

CT	FB	CH	CB
80	70	70	60

Chicago Cubs

Kris Bryant

            Bryant is a big time power hitter that has the potential to be a 30+ HR hitter for the Cubs the year he’s called up.  If he gets the call this year it wouldn’t be to surprising to see that he hits 10 HR’s in the limited time he will get.  He does have issues with better pitching and can be overwhelmed by better pitching.  He also has an average contact skill that could limit his power numbers.  Bryant is a plus defender with a solid arm and soft hands.  In a few years this guy could be one of the best players in the game.

Hit	Power	Run	Glove	Arm
55	70	40	50	65

Cleveland Indians

Francisco Lidor

            Could be one of the best prospects in the game but more of his glove and arm than his bat.  This doesn’t mean that his bat is bad in fact far from it; he could develop into a .300+ hitter but with very limited power.  He’s bat could regress to more of an average hitter than elite since his contact can sometimes come off as slappy and weak and his average speed isn’t going to help make up for it.  His glove and arm however make up for any downside he has.  Could be the best defensive prospect in the game and if he can hit for a solid average he could be an elite player in the future.

Hit	Power	Run	Glove	Arm
65	20	50	70	65

Los Angeles Dodgers

Zach Lee

            Lee doesn’t look to be an ace but a solid number 3 starters.  The Dodgers is looking for good pitching in the bullpen so there is a good chance that they bring him up to fill in that void.  Lee has an average Fastball, Change-up and Slider and a good solid, repeatable, delivery.  The down side is he doesn’t have any real plus pitches and is more of a pitch to contact pitcher than a strikeout pitcher.  In the end he can help the bullpen and maybe next year compete for a rotation spot.

FB	CH	SL
55	55	50

Miami Marlins

Andrew Heaney

            Heaney is another solid pitcher for the Marlins and projects as a solid future number 2-starter.  With 2 plus pitches, a fluid delivery and very solid command of his pitches Heaney is ready to make a splash for the fish.  He does have his issues; he can work around the plate a little too much even with his good control.  He has a light frame, which could limit the velocity that he can generate.

FB	CH	SL
65	55	65

Minnesota Twins

Miguel Sano

            Big time raw power and a big time arm make Sano the everyday 3B for the Twins for the rest of the year.  Sano is a pure athlete and with the strength he has projecting a 40+ HR guy.  The problem is that his ability to make contact is limited; he can struggle against off-speed pitches and has a tendency to swing and miss in the strike zone a little to often.  Given his issues it wouldn’t be surprising if he struggles at first but he should adjust to MLB pitching.

Hit	Power	Run	Glove	Arm
40	80	50	55	70

            Things may change in the near future and some players that I haven’t listed could still get a call up.  This was just a small list of what we could expect to see in the coming months.