Wednesday, September 11, 2013

My Lineup: Arizona Diamondbacks

My Lineup: Arizona Diamondbacks
            With all the talk the last few days about the Dbacks having problems with Kurt Gibson’s ability to make a line up I decided to try something new.  Using sabermetric stats (and not looking at the current “lineup”) I want to make what I feel is an optimized lineup using saber stats.  I plan to use different stats to compliment the players depending on where they fall in the lineup.  An example would be the difference from the person batting 3rd to the person batting 7th.  You don’t need a good SLG and or GPA in the 7th spot but a good OBP and contact rate is important to both.  So with that lets take a look at what I would have the lineup at with the Arizona Diamondbacks.
1)   Martin Prado-LF
2)   Aaron Hill-2B
3)   Eric Chavez-3B
4)   Paul Goldschmidt-1B
5)   Adam Eaton-CF
6)   Miguel Montero-C
7)   Gerardo Parra-RF
8)   Didi Gregorious-SS
9)   Pitcher
I like this lineup personally and I see it having a lot of potential, well at least in the font of the lineup.  The team doesn’t have many power threats beyond Goldschmidt and Hill so making a lineup that can stay a threat was a little tough but I think I like this.  So lets look at what I did.  The team normally has Parra leading off but looking at the stats I noticed that Prado not only has a better AVG and OBP which I like in a lead off hitter but he has a better swing %, contact %, BB% and K%.  It goes without saying that his BB/K is also better making Prado a much better option to Parra.  The only downside is Prado isn’t a base stealer, though that doesn’t make him a bad base runner just not a stealer.  I put Hill batting second under the theory that you want your best hitter should bat 1st, 2nd and 4th.  But Hill is one of the team leaders in HR’s, SLG, OBP, AVG and RC.  Him being in the 2 hole will help create and score runs for the team that no one else can.  Eric Chavez is the oddest choice; an older player that does have power but the injury risk makes him a hard choice to back up.  But here’s the thing about Chavez, he’s still one of the better contact hitters on the team.  He’s got an 84% contact rate the ability to hit .290 easy.  Goldschmidt is obviously the best fit for the clean up spot.  The hard part after Goldschmidt is like I mentioned earlier, very few good OPS guys after the top 4.  Eaton is good as a contact hitter an will develop power later on but for now he’s got a 15 HR guy at most.  The only player that has a good chance to improve his chances is Miguel Montero who is having a bad season so far but can easily hit for better power and AVG than he is now.

            Well there it is, let me know what you think.

2 comments:

  1. Don't know if I agree with Eaton in the 5-hole, but if you move him to where I think he's best suited, the leadoff spot, there's not really anywhere for Prado, who should be 1 or 2 in the lineup every time. Gibby's problem is the fact he seems compelled to put a different lineup out there every night. These guys need consistency - Justin Upton said it himself before he got traded, "you never know what to expect when you come in [the clubhouse]". That can't be good for them.

    ReplyDelete
  2. Remember this isnt a critique of Kurt Gibson just something i wanted to try using advanced stats. Eaton swings to much and doesnt have a good BB% for leadoff, now he can be in the future but Prado is the teams best in BB%, K% and Contact%. Thats why i chose him for the lead off spot, stats also show hes a good baserunner just not a base stealer

    ReplyDelete