Playoff
Team Outlook
Here
we are, the most exciting part of the baseball season and why we watched 162
games. The post season is here and
we’re looking to have one heck of a post season where we really are seeing the
best of the best teams getting in.
While we don’t know everyone that will be in the playoffs till near the
end of the season but for now we know most of the teams: Boston Red Sox,
Oakland Athletics, Detroit Tigers, Atlanta Braves, St. Louis Cardinals,
Cincinnati Reds, Pittsburg Pirates and the Los Angeles Dodgers have all
clinched a berth. While we wait
for the last 2 AL Wild Card teams clinch lets take a quick look at each of the
teams we do know. Lets look at the
strengths and weaknesses of these teams and evaluate their chances.
Lets
start with the AL and the overall favorites so far, the Boston Red Sox.
Boston Red Sox: Lets start with the
hitting and what an offense they have, firstly they have the leagues best BABIP
at .381 and that’s a big deal.
They get on base and get hits a lot when the balls put in play, forcing
plays and getting those tough calls can play big into the teams post season
success. A team slash line of
.276/.347/.434 which ranks 2nd/1st/2nd in the
AL, the team they’re behind is the team they most likely face the Detroit
Tigers. This is a potent offense
and can pick up the slack if the pitching starts to struggle. Speaking of pitching, the team doesn’t
just have a good offense but a top rotation and bullpen. The team has an ERA of 3.63, which is
the 3rd best in the AL, but there is something to note, the teams FIP is
4.08. The defense is very good and
is probably why the teams ERA is so low, I don’t think it’s a factor but it
could show up. A very strong K/9
and BB/9 ratio makes this staff a powerhouse in the post season.
Players to watch: Jacoby Ellsbury
and Koji Uehara
Oakland A’s: Here’s the team that
is still a bit of a shocker to me but not a total one. The A’s were wonderful last year and
they built up from last season but having average hitting and well above
average defense and pitching. The
A’s offense suffered this year thanks to the ill slumps of Josh Reddick and
Yoenis Cespedes but with the rise of Josh Donaldson and, to everyone’s shock,
Coco Crisp to take their places.
The teams slash line .246/.315/.412 just restates that the teams offense
is just average at best but it wins games. A BABIP of .323 is above average which works in their favor
but its mostly singles as the teams GPA is .245 is just average. Now the pitching is another story
completely, a 3.25 ERA and a 3.79 FIP show this team has very good pitching
ranking 1st and 5th respectively. The strength is the ability to keep
runners from getting free bases and having a league best BB/9 of 3.5 helps them
a lot. Playoffs can be won on pitching
so while this isn’t an offensive powerhouse like Boston its defiantly one of
the top teams in the playoffs.
Players to watch: Josh Donaldson,
Bartolo Colon
Detroit Tigers: This team is the
scariest but also the one that could really struggle. The team looks good across the board with a slash line of
.284/.347/.439 which is the best in baseball not just the AL. They hit the ball hard raking up an OPS
of .786 and a team ISO of .155, that seems low but that’s good in ISO
terms. The team does have a
massive weakness though since the bats can’t help the defense. While being better this year than last
year they can lose focus at times and let things get away form them. Another problem is the pitching, Justin
Verlander having an unVerlander type year. Max Scherzer is someone to watch and could be the saving
grace to the staff if Anibal Sanchez and Verlander struggle. The teams ERA sitting at 3.82 and a
WHIP of 1.28, very high for a team and a lot to do with the bullpen. A oddity though is the fact the teams
FIP is lower than the ERA at 3.74, its not much but note worthy to say they got
a little unlucky. In the end the
team could do some damage at the plate but if the pitching fails the team may
have a repeat of last year.
Players to watch: Miguel Cabrera, Max
Scherzer
Cleveland Indians: I never expected
this team to make it this far and I’m happy to be wrong. They, much like the Pirates, aren’t the
prototypical playoff team but they do have a strong lineup and good
pitching. With a slash line of
.252/.325/.407 they have had a good season and are pretty much even with the
Braves in terms of productivity. A
GPA of .248 is average but they do get a good amount of extra-base hits. The one downer about their offense is
the lack of good SB guys, even with Michael Bourn leading the team they only
have a SB% at 66%; this isn’t terrible and not nearly the worst but its also
not the best and is one of the lower of the teams in the playoffs. As for the pitching they don’t have the
worst but it’s defiantly not a strength of the team. ERA of 3.68 isn’t good but a good sign but a FIP of 3.48, 20
points lower, says the pitching is just got some bad luck. The bullpen isn’t as strong as they’d
want but its not as bad as the Reds have it.
Players to watch: Jason Kipnis, Ubaldo
Jimenez
Tampa Bay Rays: I liked this team
from the beginning and they didn’t disappoint, well slightly disappoint but not
terrible. The teams strength lies
in its pitching and defense, they also have the one thing no team can match Joe
Maddon. The hitting is not really
up to par, at least hitting for power that is. .252/.323./.395 slash line is good but again the power is
not really strong. The OBP is
average so this can help deal with the lack the power. HR’s have never been the teams but they
do hit for doubles to keep their GPA of .248 alive. The pitching is strong but this year did show some
weaknesses in the bullpen, which was a strong point last year. The ERA of 3.61 is higher than we’d
like to see but a FIP of 3.51 is better but not too much better. The best thing about this team is the
strong K/9 of 11.0 is very good and one of the best in the AL and MLB. This team could go far in the playoffs
but I have my doubts they could beat a fully healthy Red Sox.
Players to watch: Even Longoria,
David Price
Atlanta Braves: This team very much
resembles the A’s in some respects but is the very definition of a feast or
famine team. A slash line of
.257/.324/.401 is defiantly lower than we all thought it would be considering
the blistering hot start for the team.
Justin Upton is the poster boy of this team in many ways since he went
with the team in the ups and downs.
Having nearly 10 HR’s by the end of the second week but then almost 2
months without a HR. This teams
strength is going to come in defense and pitching, this is where the team can
have an advantage. The defense is
above average but a lot of that is do to Andrelton Simmons and his gold glove
winning skills. Having that glove
and arm up the middle is going to make teams struggle getting hits on the left
side of the field. As for pitching
the team has an ERA of 3.10, 2nd best behind the Dodgers, and a WHIP
of 1.19 again behind the Dodgers.
The best news for the team is the FIP, which is 3.34; the team has been
very good even with an average defense behind them and they can keep doing what
they’re doing. With a K% over 10
and a BB% under 4 they can hold most teams at bay. The real test is to see if the hitting can match up.
Players to watch: Andrelton
Simmons, Kris Medlen
St Louis Cardinals: To start this
off I’ll say this, I personally think that the Cardinals are the best team in
the NL and they are my pick to make it to the World Series. With that said this team is the best of
the best, they can hit and they can pitch making them the team to beat. Also having the leagues best BA with
RISP doesn’t hurt your chances.
They’re RISP is .313 and the next closest is the Red Sox at .287, quite
the gap. They own a slash line of
.268/.329/.407 which is strong but also may be the weakness of the team. They’re very strong but not powerful in
any stat specifically; a GPA of .250 is good but also shows their not
overpowering. At this point the
team is solid and does everything right hitting wise and they’re just as good
in pitching. The ERA of 3.72 is
actually a little misleading since the teams FIP is currently 3.52 over 20
points lower. With the WHIP of
1.27 it leads me to believe that this team’s defense has let them down more
than once. It’s a good defense
with a FPCT of .988 but the OF has been week. Back to the pitching, the teams K% is in the top of MLB
(10.8%) and the BB% is just as good (3.6%) and having one the leagues best
HR/FB%, 5%, helps teams win.
Players to watch: Matt Carpenter, Trevor
Rosenthal
Los Angeles Dodgers: Probably the
most improbable team to make the playoffs this year. They’re a great team but with all the health issues they had
in the beginning of the season and then the struggles of their stars they were
in last place near the mid point of the season. With that said the teams slash line ended up .267/.328/.420,
much like the Cardinals they are very good but nothing to spectacular. The team just does everything above
average, they steal at an 88% success rate, they have a BA RISP of .272 so on
so forth; all very good but not Tigers levels. The pitching is what may decide the winner in the
matchups. With Clayton Kershaw and
Zack Greinke leading the staff it can be very tough to get wins in game 1 and
2. The teams ERA is sitting at
2.91 and a FIP of 3.27, very solid and some of the lower of the ERA and FIP in
the league and with a WHIP of 1.17 they are going to trouble for any team
having to go up against them.
Players to watch: Hanley Ramirez,
Clayton Kershaw
Cincinnati Reds: The first of the
Wild Card in the NL and fighting the Pirates for the home field advantage for
the actual wild card spot. This is
a hitter team that hasn’t really done a lot of hitting. A slash line of .248/.321/.411 and a
GPA of .247 I think sums up the teams hitting problems. They’re much like the Braves in that
they are a feast or famine team, they have the ability to hit 4-5-6 HR’s a game
but they also have a high team K% sitting at 20%. The team also isn’t really hitting well with RISP sitting at
.249; not terrible but also not the best they probably hoped for. The pitching has looked good but also
very lucky. The ERA of 3.32 looks
great until you notice the FIP of 3.80 almost 50 points higher and the better
hitting teams are going to take advantage of this. The team has a decent WHIP of 1.22 and a good K% and BB% so
we can only wait and see if the team’s defense can keep helping them.
Players to watch: Joey Votto,
Andolis Chapman
Pittsburgh Pirates: The surprise
team of the year, I watched them as they played and tempered my expectations
considering what they’ve done the last few years. So looking at this season the team has had a lot of
struggles to over come. They don’t
have the best offense with a BA w/RISP of .208 in the last 3 months. This doesn’t bold well for them in the
playoffs but then again they’re in the playoffs with the 2nd worst
RISP so they score when they need to.
A slash line of .246/.314/.398 also doesn’t give me much confidence that
they can survive a full playoff run.
But again while not impressive they do well enough to survive, the GPA
of .241 is just average but not terrible.
The strength of the team is the pitching especially the bullpen, a 3.14
ERA and 3.22 FIP is very good and one of the best in the NL. A WHIP of 1.28 is a little high but
nothing that will kill them. In
the end this isn’t a top choice for the World Series but we shall see how far
they can go.
Players to watch: Sterling Marte,
Francisco Liriano
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