Wednesday, February 12, 2014

First Look: AL East

American League East
            Lets continue from where we left off and take a look at the AL East.
Toronto Blue Jays:
Pitching- At first looks this seems like a team with a lot of potential, and it is but it’s the ceiling of that potential that worries me.  The main thing I see wrong with this team is just a lack of strong front line starters.  Each of the big names they have don’t actually pan out to be front line starters R.A Dickey is a good pitcher but isn’t an ace that the team was hoping to have, according to the Seidman Starting Pitcher Effectiveness Model Dickey only ranked as a mid 2nd starter and not a true number 1.  This could be an issue unless Dickey can return to what he was 2 years ago which isn’t likely but if he stays what he is now then getting a true number 1 will help the pitching a lot.  Brandon Morrow needs to stay healthy and needs to limit the walks and he could be another great number 2 starter but again the team needs an ace.  Though the team does have strength in the bullpen, which has many solid pitchers like Casey Janssen, Jeremy Jefferess, Steve Delabar and Brett Cecil make a good core of relievers.  Delabar and Cecil were both surprises last year and if they can keep strong they can help the bullpen keep going strong.  Overall better than you would have feared and worse than you’d hope.  Middle of the road is best way to put it but with a good bullpen they could be a surprise with the right piece.
Batting-A strong lineup that had a few too many underperformers basically defines the year last year for the Jays.  Jose Reyes was a great addition to the team and is still a great leadoff hitter and with hitters like Jose Bautista and Edwin Encarnacion behind him adds a lot of pop to the lineup.  Melky Cabrera needs to have a bounce back season and Adam Lind needs to work on hitting LHP to make the team stronger.  The wild card will be Brett Lawrie, a player that seems to get a lot hate that doesn’t deserve it.  If Lawrie can hit like we know he can he will be a major offensive force for the team.  Overall I say this lineup can turn heads when its on but they have to watch out that many of the better hitters are not without flaws and could end up hurting them.
Baltimore Orioles:
Pitching-What a disappointment for the pitching last year and this year they did seem to fix one area but it wasn’t the major weakness.  The starting pitching on this team is in worse shape than the Blue Jays but has more upside than the Jays pitching does.  Kevin Gausman, Chris Tillman and Wei-Yin Chen are the teams best and very arguably played over their heads.  While I have confidence that Gausman and his partner in the minors Dylan Bundy will hit their potential Tillman only has 1 season of plus level pitching and he ranks as a mid level #2 pitcher last year.  Once again they don’t have a defined ace but unlike the Jays they have guys like Gausman and Bundy have a chance to change this in the near future.  The bullpen was the strength 2 years ago but last year was a flop, they’ve made a few moves to try and get it back to what it was but its got some mix results.  Darren O’Day is a good signing but isn’t an end of game guy just a very solid middle relief guy.  This is kind of the problem with the bullpen in general; good middle relief guys but not door closers.  Overall I say weak but bright future needs an ace and a back end guy to be a good pitching staff.
Batting-Has a very solid lineup with guys like Adam Jones and Chris Davis in the lineup.  It has a lot of power to fall back on and with Manny Machado developing the way he is he could be a middle of the lineup guy in the very near future.  Not to leave out Matt Wieters who is one of baseballs better hitting catchers, not a major avg. guy but he has good power.  The team has weaknesses though, and the problems lie in if some of these players being able to repeat, namely Chris Davis.  If he can repeat even just a bit of what he did last year then the team can go far.  Overall they have a lot of potential and could go far but its up to a few guys to repeat to make it a great offense.
Tampa Bay Rays:
Pitching-Easily one of the best staffs in all of baseball and they doesn’t have many weaknesses.  David Price is easily one of the best pitchers in the game even while having a off year last year he should bounce back to be the ace we know.  Pitchers like Matt Moore, Chris Archer and Alex Cobb look poised to have a strong year that will really test hitters in both leagues.  Their bullpen has improved but getting rid of Fernando Rodney and upgrading to Grant Balfour as their new closer and retaining guys like Joel Peralta and Jake McGee will defiantly make the bullpen a strong force for any team to fight.  Overall this team has so many weapons that are getting better every year and is this teams major strength.
Batting-The Rays have a decent lineup but as a team they never seem to be able to hit at the same time.  Evan Longoria and Wil Myers are the two best hitters on this team and they have a lot of potential.  But there are risks to both since Longoria hasn’t really been healthy for the last few years and his inability to hit for a high average seems to be an issue for him.  If this is the year he pulls everything together he’s easily the best 3B hitter in baseball.  Wil Myers is young and this will be his first full season so we shall see how he adjusts to pitchers adjusting to him.  The other staples of this team are still there but many have the same issues as Longoria, can hit but for some reason go into some major slumps.  Overall could be a dangerous lineup but they need to stay consistent to do any damage in the long run.
Boston Red Sox:
Pitching-A team that has a few too many question marks, yes they are the World Series Champs but that doesn’t mean the pitching is getting better.  Many of the pitchers are getting up in age and are already past their primes.  Jon Lester is still the best they have and it’s a good bet he will be able to keep up the pace he set last year but the rest of the rotation may not be so lucky.  John Lackey, Jake Peavy and Felix Doubront all have the chance to be very good but all of these pitchers have had better season than they had last year and all rank as number 4 guys.  The teams hopes really rely on Clay Buchholz coming back from his injury plagued season after starting off so hot.  If he does Lester and Buchholz could lead this rotation to victory.  The bullpen has its strengths but is much like the rotation with its question marks.  Koji Uehara will return as the closer for the team and as much as I think he can do fine it will be his first full season as a closer and combined with his age/work load might catch up with him.  Edward Mujica was a great pitcher in the beginning of the 2013 season but he fell off late in the season so we need to find out if he can bounce back from last season.  Andrew Miller and Junichi Tazawa will be good to decent pitchers for the team but in Miller’s case I don’t expect too much.  Overall a good staff but its not as strong as Tampa’s though to be fair not many teams can match Tampa’s.  They will be successful if they can stay healthy the entire season, which was a major issue last year.
Batting-Still strong but the loss of Jacoby Ellsbury is going to hurt the production no matter how you slice it.  This doesn’t mean the team is a pushover they still have some strong bats in Dustin Pedroia and David Ortiz, both of which will be strong assets to the team just like always.  Mike Napoli is a good hitter and will add the power the team needs in the middle of the lineup.  The team has a lot of interesting players that can make a strong impact: Mike Carp, Brock Holt, Jackie Bradley Jr. and Xander Bogaerts could make a big difference for the team.  Overall this team doesn’t look like they have a strong lineup but its deceiving how much talent they have.  They still may have the best lineup in the division.
New York Yankees:
Pitching-This is the team I’m sure everyone was waiting to hear about and I’ll just come out and say it right now.  No Masahiro Tanaka is not going to be the new ace of the team, from what I can find on him since information is limited on him.  From what I’ve seen about him he has a mid 90’s fastball that stays around 92-93 on average and uses very nasty off-speed pitches like his split finger to get guys out.  He profiles as a number three starter at the moment.  We have to see how he manages in a new league in a new country.  As for the rest of the rotation it’s actually quite strong with C.C Sabathia and Hiroki Kuroda at the top and having Ivan Nova behind Tanaka makes a great 4 starters.  The fifth spot will be fought over by David Phelps and Michael Pineda both could do the job but Pineda has the upside.  The bullpen is in good shape even with Mariano Rivera is gone.  David Robertson is a great pitcher and will fill in for Rivera admirably.  Signing Matt Thornton gives them another good relief option.  The team could use a few more good relief options after them but the team should survive as long as the starters do their jobs.  Overall this is a mixed bag of pitching; while the starters are great the relief is just ok.  The starting pitching is actually the 2nd best in the division and one of the better in the league, while not the best of the bunch they are in the top 5.

Batting-With the signing of Carlos Beltran and Jacoby Ellsbury make the outfield one of the stronger ones in baseball.  Throw Brett Gardner into the mix its easily the one of the better defensive outfields in the game.  The infield however is not as lucky, Derek Jeter is getting older, Alex Rodriguez is suspended for the next year, Mark Teixeira is not nearly as potent a hitter as he was in his prime and that makes Kelly Johnson one of the more consistent hitters?  That’s just wrong.  It can defiantly be better than it looks like on paper but the OF is going to have to carry the team this year.  Overall the offense is not as good as the pitching but its good enough to get the team a good amount of wins.

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