From Zero to Hero: Dee Gordon

From Zero to Hero: Dee Gordon

            This last offseason all we heard about was what would happen to the Dodgers if Alex Guerrero couldn’t field 2B.  It was a big enough issue that the Dodgers started to look out of house for anyone selling a 2B that they could slot into the position.  In the end they were left with failed SS prospect Dee Gordon to man 2B.  Gordon, who had been in the minors for a better part of a year, took to the role and ran with it quite literally as he is currently up to 43 SB and just named to the NL All Star team.  So what changed in a guy that would strikeout 20% of the time last season?  Well lets take a look.

	BB%	K%	SB	wSB	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	wOBA	wRC+
2014	6.9%	15.3%	43	4.8	.292	.344	.398	.742	.106	.344	.329	112
2013	9.4%	19.8%	10	1.1	.234	.314	.298	.612	.064	.292	.273	73
Career	6.0%	16.0%	109	9.8	.269	.317	.344	.661	.074	.321	.294	87

            So what changed that made Gordon an All Star caliber player?  Well first thing we notice is that he’s not striking out as much with is a big plus for a guy that relies on speed to do his damage.  While the lowed BB% should be a concern as long as he can keep the ball in play then his speed is going to make things difficult enough for the opponent’s defense.  Now the second thing of note is the rise in his slash line across the board.  It’s impressive but there is some red flags here and the first is the rise in OBP.  For a guy that isn’t walking much the .344 seems a bit high but I think this is do to the higher BABIP.  High BABIP’s tend to be a warning sign for most players but with Gordon I’m actually a believer that this can be sustained.  Faster players tend to have a higher BABIP since they can beat out players that slower players can’t hence the higher BABIP.  No matter what I would feel hard pressed to look at these stats and not raise an eyebrow, I think we need to see some more stats to see if there is some evidence or warning signs in the numbers.

Splits

	BB%	K%	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	wOBA	wRC+
LHP	6.1%	9.8%	.276	.329	.355	.685	.079	.309	.307	97
RHP	7.1%	16.7%	.297	.347	.410	.757	.113	.355	.334	116

            It’s not to surprising that Gordon’s hitting worse against LHP since he’s a lefty himself but it is impressive that he’s actually hitting fairly well against them.  I didn’t really expect Gordon to be hitting this well against LHP and in the end not really hurting his team against them.  This doesn’t really tell give us any answers to the questions were asking but at the same time props to him for being able to hit consistently above average against LHP and RHP alike.

Batted Balls

	GB/FB	GB%	FB%	LD%
2014	2.81	58.2%	20.7%	21.1%
2013	1.63	49.2%	30.2%	20.6%
Career	2.64	57.1%	21.6%	21.3%

            Now we have something that we can work with.  Since last year Gordon has greatly increased his GB% and decreased his FB% by that same amount.  The LD% is the same but that isn’t Gordon’s game since he’s a speed guy.  The lowering of the FB% means he’s given more chances to run out a ball and beat the throws that a FB wouldn’t allow him to do.  Getting the ball on the ground and finding the holes is how a player like Gordon needs to play the game and it adds more context to the numbers we saw earlier.  A change like this would defiantly have an impact on his overall numbers.

PITCHf/x Plate Discipline

	O-Swing	Z-Swing	Swing%	O-Contact	Z-Contact	Contact%
2014	32.7%	52.0%	42.7%	82.1%	92.6%	88.8%
2013	32.8%	53.1%	43.3%	81.4%	92.5%	87.7%
Career	35.4%	58.5%	45.5%	80.8%	92.2%	87.8%

            While at first glance there doesn’t really seem to be much change in his game from last year but there are changes.  Notice that his Swing% overall is down but his Contact% is going up even if its just a point it’s a trend you want to see from a contact/speed guy.  Gordon is choosing better to pitches to swing at and therefore making better contact.

Hot/Cold Charts

Swing%

4%(23)	15%(27)	34%(32)	14%(14)	0%(3)
5%(39)	42%(64)	63%(80)	54%(57)	21%(14)
23%(81)	48%(128)	52%(147)	57%(81)	22%(32)
35%(63)	55%(106)	59%(136)	50%(64)	14%(21)
32%(34)	36%(69)	41%(82)	38%(61)	19%(31)

Contact%

0%(1)	100%(4)	82%(11)	50%(2)	0%(0)
100%(2)	89%(27)	92%(50)	94%(31)	100%(3)
84%(19)	94%(62)	96%(77)	91%(46)	71%(7)
100%(2)	97%(58)	86%(80)	88%(32)	67%(3)
82%(11)	84%(25)	82%(34)	65%(23)	17%(6)

            One nice thing about Gordon is he’s making a lot of contact in the zone having nothing below 86% is a solid line to have.  Better yet he’s making some of his best contact in the bottom of the zone even making contact at a good rate at the down and away pitches.  His swing% seems to in line with what we discovered in his O-Swing and Z-Swing% and he’s actually being pretty selective and taking pitches more often than he was last year.

            So did we answer the question that is Dee Gordon?  Well we’ve seen where he’s improved and it seems to be in his GB% and he’s limiting his swings, which is a good sign.  Can he keep it up is the big question and from what we’ve seen I think that he has a good chance to keep being productive but at the same point I’m not confident a .290 average is in his future.  There is a good chance he ends this season batting .275 or so but if he keeps up the good OBP and keeps stealing as he is then it doesn’t look like that BA drop should matter, or at least it won’t until Alex Guerrero is ready