Free Agent Outlook: Seth Smith

            Trying to find the next new trend seems to be the hot thing in baseball now and days.  First was the use of the defensive shift to try and gain an advantage against power hitters and exploit their weaknesses to the max.  Managers will do anything for an edge and that doesn’t end on the defensive side in fact it works on both ends.  Players being in a platoon situation was not common but happened in the past but 2014 showed us how effective the strategy really could be and today’s player we’re looking at is, at least in my eyes, the poster child of the platoon Seth Smith.

	BB%	K%	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	wOBA	wRC+	WAR
2014	13.2%	16.7%	.266	.367	.440	.807	.174	.305	.357	133	2.6
2013	9.5%	22.9%	.253	.329	.391	.721	.139	.320	.318	102	1.1
Career	10.6%	18.6%	.265	.347	.453	.800	.188	.304	.347	112	10.3

            Smith had a lot of potential when he was drafted in the 2^nd round by the Colorado Rockies and for the most part he succeeded even if he didn’t have regular playing time until 2009 where he batted .293/.378/.510 in 387 plate appearances.  After that season though his career was very up and down with his production.  Hovering around a .253 batting average but keeping an impressive .340 OBP going.  So what was so off about him?  Well lets look at another data set and I’ll show you:

Career Splits

	BB%	K%	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	wOBA	wRC+
RHP	10.7%	18.2%	.277	.358	.481	.839	.204	.314	.362	123
LHP	10.4%	21.8%	.205	.291	.314	.605	.109	.250	.274	63

            As we can see there’s a reason I called him my “poster child” of platooning.  His numbers are just terrible versus a LHP and it really drags everything else about him down.  The Padres saw this too, they played him only when the team started a RHP and his numbers stayed very strong until a slump near the end of the season dragged him down a little.  Heck this is a guy that at one point was in the top 50 of ESPN’s player rater for hitters and he was in a platoon!

Pros:

            Smith is a good hitter from the left side; one might say he’s an all around hitter versus RHP.  He has power and a very rare ability to take a walk while still hitting for a good average.  While he did slump near the end of the season he did at one point own a .300 average with a .360 OBP, which is always a good thing to have on a team.  He has a good eye only striking out 16.7% of the time and that is his best rate since his rookie years.  Smith has shown the ability to hit to all fields not just focusing on pulling which is a very good thing considering shifts against left handed batters is very common, especially if they have power.  Speaking of power Smith is no slouch in that area having decent homerun totals for a guy playing in Petco and more importantly having a solid ISO signifying that he is hitting for more power than just homers.

Cons: Never bat him against LHP, no joke this guy is just terrible against them.  The chart above shows you the numbers and they speak for themselves.  He looks lost against LHP and that’s going to limit him in playing time, if the manager is smart that is.  Smith is a fine defender but not a great one so that is something to keep in mind when he is playing.  He is a platoon player and at 32 the odds of him getting better against LHP is 0 to none.

Contract: Smith fit into the slightly above average slot on WAR at 2.6 so he could ask for a good amount of money.  But his major weakness is going to hold back all talks of major payday since no one is going to shell out big bucks for a player that will only play against RHP, even if most pitchers in baseball are RHP.  I wouldn’t be shocked that Smith tries for a 3-year deal or at least a 2-year with an option for a third likely a team option.  Someone that is a good comparison to Seth Smith would be Brandon Moss, a fellow platoon player that only hits RHP, so we can use his $4.1 million a year deal as a good starting place and that is about what Smith could expect.  Using my best judgment I was say a $12 million for 3 year deal would be fine for him but that may be a little high.  A more likely deal would be in the range of $8 million for 2 years with a team option for a third and the option likely worth $3 million.

Teams:

New York Yankees: The Yankees are going to need some pop in their lineup next season and Smith has 2 things they could use.  He is an experienced hitter with the ability to hit for average and power but walk as well.  The second thing is Smith will be cheaper than other options on the market at this time.  Good field for Smith as well who could spread the ball around in that outfield.  The only thing that is a snag is if the Yankees can find a good right-handed batter to go against LHP when Smith is benched.

Cleveland Indians: The Indians have a rather weak outfield outside of Michael Brantly and they could use an upgrade to David Murphy.  Though Murphy was decent for most of the year he did have his fair share of struggles.  Smith would be an upgrade to what Smith did last year but the same issue as the Yankees shows up.  The team doesn’t have a strong right-handed batter to platoon with Smith, which limits his value.

Detroit Tigers: This team has been showing up in my recent articles a lot and for good reason.  The team needs help and they have to spend money to do it; lucky for them though Smith would come relatively cheap and the team has the bonus of having a deeper outfield staff to platoon him with.  Really not a terrible option for the team but more likely to go for Alex Rios than Smith.

New York Mets: Hey what do you know they both made a list for once!  Yes the Mets outfield is a mess and while Smith would be an upgrade he still has the same issues as their neighbors.  Signing Smith would require them to find a strong right-handed batter to platoon since they don’t have one now.

Pittsburgh Pirates: While im almost 100% certain that the team is going to be using Gregory Polanco as their starting RF but with Polanco struggling after a quick surge he did slump so Smith could be an option.  It’s a long shot but it is a possibility.

San Diego Padres: This is a choice just because it’s where he came from and the team could use him.  The injury-plagued 2014 season was a lost season for the team but they do have a good team they just need to stay healthy and all they need those players that struggled to step it up.