Scouting Report: C.C. Sabathia
This year hasn’t started well for Sabathia, owning an ERA of 6.63 and a WHIP of 1.26. Lets look at this a little closer, we know that ERA is a flawed stat and FIP is a much better gauge of a pitchers talents and what he’s doing right now. Sabathia has a FIP of 4.74, which is still a little high but in fact means that a lot of his ERA is from the bad defense behind him. While the OF defense is solid enough when healthy the infield lacks range and many are below average gloves, in fact Sabathia has a GB% 58% which is higher than his career average. This is nice to see since it means he’s keeping the ball down in the zone and to add strength to that his FB% is at 22% a career low. In fact Sabathia is on pace to beat many of his stat lines this year: K% (25.9%), K/9 (9.95), BB/9 (1.47), K/BB (7.00). All are doing much better than career total.
So the question is; if he’s doing so well on his advanced pitching stats why is he struggling so badly? Well lets remember one thing, he’s only pitched in 3 games which isn’t enough to get a good feel if what he’s doing is sustainable. But we can also look at these games and see some “luck” factor having a negative effect on him. A pitcher like Sabathia won’t have a HR/FB of 38.5%, its just unsustainable, his LOB% is also well down from career normal at 58% while his career is 72% and I feel that will average out. Two more stats that show signs of bad luck is a higher BABIP and BA against both of which are higher than career totals. These are all stats that tend to average out in the end back to normal, not always but they do most of the time.
So why has Sabthia become more hittable is the next question we have to ask, well beyond pitching it in the zone more hence the fewer walks. Lets take a look at his pitches. Sabathia has a Fastball, Slider, Cutter, Curveball and Change-up according to Fangraphs.com; the first thing to look at is any pattern in the pitches that he’s throwing. Which according to the pitch tracker there doesn’t seem to be a major difference in how he’s pitched this year to any other year, yes he’s throw a few more sliders than average but not tremendously or enough for cause of concern. But here’s something I want you to look at.
This is a chart showing Sabathia’s Fastball Velocity from 2007-2014 and I think you can see a big issue. His average velocity has dropped from 93 to 88 this year. 5 MPH may not seem like a big thing but his fastball isn’t the only pitch that’s lost velocity over the years. All his pitches have lost at least 2 MPH in the same time frame and his Sinker has dropped 4 MPH in less time (note: he developed the Sinker in 2009). This loss of velocity changes how Sabathia has to pitch to batters, he can’t just blow it past them anymore like he could in his prime.
So what have we seen so far with Sabathia? He’s still throwing strikes (206 strikes to 97 Balls), he’s still striking out people and he’s keeping the ball down in the zone and limiting the FB. Now the bad news: his velocity is down from previous years and it’s a struggle for him to adjust to the slower speeds. His pitches loss some of the bite that they had previously since the fastball isn’t much different form his change-up. Since there’s little difference you have to fool the hitters with location and accuracy not speed and power. Sabathia is capable of reviving himself and become a new slower pitcher but he has to start soon, as in right now. If he can’t do this now he will be out of baseball sooner than later since he will get hit more often and he will give up more HR’s.
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