Rays Flopping

Rays Flopping

            I recently wrote an article about how the Astros were on the rise due to their prospects and coaching staff really coming through for them.  This time we look at a team that’s future doesn’t look nearly as bright as the Astros.  The Rays have been considered the permanent Cinderella Story, every year having a good season and even making the playoffs and still looked down upon.  This year though they have hit a brick wall…and upon hitting the wall the wall promptly fell on top of them.  Lets take a look at just how bad this team has been and see if there is a Ray of light at the end of this tunnel…I’m sorry.

            Offense

	BB%	K%	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	BABIP	ISO	wOBA	wRC+
2014	9.1%	18.6%	.242	.316	.363	.679	.283	.121	.302	94

            Looking at the numbers there’s two things that stand out.  The team’s numbers all around aren’t too terrible though they are below average just a little bit.  The one thing that truly stands out is the lack of power from this team having a grand total of 172 XBH this season so far.  The ISO is almost 20 points below the league average for the last 5 years and the OPS isn’t far behind that.  This team has 0 power at the moment and from the signs were seeing it doesn’t look like it’s changing anytime soon.  Longoria has been a disappointment, Wil Myers is hurt and he wasn’t doing anything anyways and Zobrist has been hurt recently.  The list of players having a struggle hitting for power pretty much spans the lineup.

            The Rays can’t even claim that their getting unlucky, a BABIP of .283 is just under the league average of .290 so luck isn’t a factor there.  The one good thing that this team can say about itself is they’re not striking out much and they’re taking a good amount of walks.  Though that means relatively little when your team can’t score the players you do get on.

            Pitching

	BB%	K%	HR/9	AVG	ERA	FIP	WHIP	BABIP	ERA-	FIP-	LOB%
2014	8.53	3.18	0.88	.243	4.04	3.65	1.30	.298	108	100	71.3%

            The pitching has been a real issue for this year’s team and it starts with the WHIP.  While the BB% is a little high its not terrible the BAA against is a lot higher than you’d like to see and its letting more runners reach base more often, you let them reach base more often the more often they’re going to score on you.  The more then normal amount of hitters reaching base leads to the higher ERA since the defense isn’t holding them on very well either.  The FIP is a clue to that, in fact the FIP says a lot to the luck this team is having.  While it is common to have an ERA under you FIP to some extent it is never a good sign for your team when the FIP is lower than the ERA.  Pretty much it mean the team is getting unlucky or that the defense is really weakening the teams pitching.  The Rays have a lot of good strikeout pitchers but they also have a good amount of contact pitchers.  Many of which are the relief pitchers.

            So what can we take away from this quick look at the advanced stats and the Ray?  Well we see the hitters are hitting pretty average but the power is non-existent and the lower BABIP means they could just be getting unlucky.  The Pitching is facing a similar problem but they give up to many hits and the BABIP says their getting unlucky.  There’s one more issue about this team that isn’t getting a lot of talk.  If the Rays have so many struggling players why haven’t the brought up a few to replace them?  Well the team is starting to hit rock bottom in their system now and more interesting to note is how many of the teams first round picks have made it to the majors recently.  Evan Longoria and David Price are the only players that have been Rays draft picks that have come up and made a major difference for this team.  Even players like Wil Myers and Desmond Jennings haven’t really lived up to the expectations (yet).

            If the team is starting to struggle in the minors how do they fix the majors?  Sadly the team may have just hit that critical max where they have to choose which to fix.  If they fix the minors they’ll have to give up pieces in the majors to do so and were not talking about players like James Loney or Yunel Escobar.  Were talking Price or Zobrist or Jake McGee level of players which would cripple the team in the short term but potentially bring in a haul and make the system stronger and make a brighter future.  They could also start spending the money to sign free agents and start going the “Yankee’s route” sacrificing the system and prospects that they have left to make the big team competitors.  Both plans come with huge risk and if it doesn’t work for them the team still hits rock bottom, just look at the Astros as an example.  Bottom line there is not quick fix and there’s not easy way out for the Rays this year.  There’s always hope in the future though and I’ll always put my money where Joe Maddon is coaching.