Signs of Progress: Houston Astros

Signs of Progress: Houston Astros

            Don’t let this months record fool you the Astros actually played way better than you’d think.  You can make the argument that this was just a month and the team can’t keep up the pace.  Well your probably right, this isn’t a major player in the AL just yet but the fact that they did this well show’s that the team is starting to show the promise with the rookies starting to come up.  Why take my word for it when we can take a look at the team for ourselves.  Lets see how the lowly Astros have actually been playing well over average in the last month.

Astros Batting by Month(s)

	BB%	K%	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	BABIP	ISO	wOBA	wRC+
May	8.8%	20.4%	.259	.332	.414	.745	.305	.154	.330	110
March/April	8.2%	24.5%	.210	.282	.358	.639	.254	.147	.286	79

            So looking at the numbers here it doesn’t look anything that stands out but when you consider what they did the 2-month previously combined it’s a huge improvement.  The BB% is not up a lot but that is more walks that this team is used to getting and its improved their overall offense just enough.  More importantly the K% is down 4%, which is a huge improvement.  It gets more guys on the bases even if it’s just putting the ball in play and forcing the offense to do something.  The bigger question is how long can they keep up this rate.  Most of the improvements can be directly linked to the lack of K’s that bog down the team.  This isn’t to say the team isn’t hitting, after all an increase in AVG by 50 points is a big deal and the improved OBP is much better.  A good sign to point to the recent success could just be a bit luckier than they were before.  BABIP is a good sign of how lucky a team or player is getting and the fact the Astros as a whole had such a low BABIP it screamed improvements would happen to average out.  Overall this is a vast improvement and to be honest, gun to my head, I think May Astros are the real deal at least when it comes to hitting.  So lets look at the pitching to see if similar improvements were made.

Astros Pitching by Month(s)

	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	K%	BB%	BAA	ERA	WHIP	BABIP	FIP	ERA-	FIP-	LOB%
May	7.35	2.49	0.71	19.6%	6.6%	.249	3.62	1.24	.298	3.40	92	90	70.6%
April/March	7.38	3.90	1.07	18.5%	8.9%	.259	4.87	1.45	.301	4.19	123	116	70.4%

            Much like the batting the differences are quite dramatic.  Lets start with the K/9 which is the same as last month no improvement but the BB/9 is a huge improvement of over the pervious month.  It’s a great sign for this team moving forward since the walks were a major issue and the team was giving up so many that no team could survive.  Knocking over 2% of your walks is really going to show and it does when you see the WHIP and how it lowered by 20 points.  When it comes to evaluating a team or player WHIP is always a better thing to look at compared to ERA since ERA can lie about how well the pitchers actually did (errors and the such).  So when you see a team improve their WHIP so much it’s a very strong sign of good things to come.  The BABIP is an interesting thing to note since it didn’t change much at all which leads me to believe that luck wasn’t a major factor the first months but the BB’s were killing the team.

            The question you start to ask yourself after looking at these changes is, well what changed?  Well there’s the simple answer we already discussed in the team’s luck finally turned around but there were other factors.  George Springer was called up and while struggling the first few weeks after the call up he did settle down and went on to be this months Rookie of the Month.  His bat was a much-needed boost to the team and combined with the improvements from Jason Castro and Matt Dominguez and the consistency of Jose Altuve and Dexter Fowler the offense was able to take that step forward.  As for the pitching’s the team settled down and started throwing strikes.  The real credit should go to Dallas Kuechel and Colin McHugh who both pitched brilliantly in this last month and we’re easily the team’s best pitchers.

            Even though the Astros finished 1 game above .500 ending the month at 15-14 there was a lot of improvements made.  At the beginning of the season this was the team I expected to see playing but they struggled something terrible and now they’re very respectable.  Are they challenging for a playoff spot?  No, not even close.  Will they compete next year and be a contender?  Not likely but it’ll be another step in the right direction.  The main strength of this team isn’t the team were seeing its their minor league team.  Once the rookies start coming up the team, with some luck, should start really shining and harken back to a era where the Astros were one of the most feared teams in the NL.