Free Agent Outlook: Alex Rios

            In the past Alex Rios was one of the more frustrating players in baseball.  When he was a prospect he was considered a 5-tool player and he did prove this to be true, just never in the same season.  While he did always flash the glory that he could be he never really lived up to that .300 hitter while being a 30/30 player that we thought he could be.  As his career has gone on he has gotten far more consistent with what he can do and has become a very solid player in the game even if he still doesn’t steal bases.

	BB%	K%	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	wOBA	wRC+	WAR
2014	5.0%	17.1%	.280	.311	.398	.709	.118	.335	.309	92	0.2
2013	6.2%	16.3%	.278	.324	.432	.756	.154	.311	.330	104	3.1
Career	5.9%	16.1%	.278	.323	.439	.762	.161	.311	.330	100	26.7

            Looking at his numbers the last few years he has regressed a bit since 2012 where Rios has his best season of his career.  This is expected since at age 33 he has already passed his prime and is already out of the “golden years” for hitters.  Even with this down year he did at least but up passable numbers and was able to hit the ball about the same he has normally done throughout his career.  The one thing that is noticeable is the rise in his swing rate, which took a 2% increase from last year, but this could just be an anomaly for him since it still fits into his career percentages.  The worrying thing about Rios is the numbers look very sad considering he was batting in hitter friendly Arlington Park most of the season and he still regressed quite a bit.  The jury is still out if this is a sign of major regression or just a bad year.

Pros:

            Rios has proven to be a very consistent hitter the last few years.  In the last 5 seasons Rios has failed to bat over .275 once and that was a terrible season for him back in 2011.  After that season though he has been the very model of consistent being able to hit for a moderate amount of power and get on base regularly.  Rios isn’t immune to the strikeout but at the same time he doesn’t get struck out as often as most players now and days so it balances out that low walk rate.  As a fielder Rios is just average but still very usable.

Cons:

            As we discussed at the top of this article Rios was a little up and down in the beginning and seeing the numbers from last year we have to assume he may be in the trend again.  It’s easy to throw his 2014 season struggles out since it was just one season but at 33 (34 at the beginning of the 2015 season) those downward trends could start becoming an issue quickly.  Rios isn’t a walker, never has been and likely never will be, which could lead to some to an inconsistent OBP later in his career.  In fact we can see that trend already starting having his OBP drop 10 points each of the last 2 seasons and if that’s not a trend to worry you then here’s another to worry you.  His ISO is in the same trend as his OBP but worse dropping 50 points each of the last 2 seasons, remember that ISO isn’t the homerun stat it’s his overall power numbers so that means doubles are down as well.  Overall Rios seems to be losing the all-important battle of age and we’re seeing the outcome.

Contract:

            Toronto had a very odd period of time where they gave huge contracts to players they thought would be their future.  In today’s climate that’s actually the trend, lock up the young guns and seal them up, but back then it wasn’t the norm and even by today’s standards Rios’ contract would never happen.  Rios had a 7-year $69.8 million contract with a 1-year team option for the 2015 season, which the Rangers have just declined, and we can assume no one is crazy enough (or at least likes his job enough to keep it) to sign him to a similar contract so we have to take a guess.

            Coming off the 2014 season Rios’ stock is low and won’t get a super amount of suitors.  He will get a few, as we’ll discuss later, but at his advanced age there isn’t really a market for him.  Using his WAR as a starting point we can look and see what players around him could be a good comparison and to be fair he’s in a group of underachievers like Baltimore’s Chris Davis, Shin-Soo Choo, Eric Hosmer, and Jean Segura.  But there is one name that does make a good comparison for Rios and that is Miami Marlins outfielder Garrett Jones who signed a 2 year $7.8 million deal last offseason.  Looking at Rios’ numbers a 2-year deal, with maybe a team option for a 3^rd, would be appropriate and making it say $10-13 million a year would be more than fair.  In fact if the team was trying to save a buck or 2 they can make it a incentive lased deal where Rios can earn his money after his struggles.

Teams:

Detroit Tigers: With Torii Hunter on the market and likely retiring the team will be looking to not only add a bat but a consistent one. Rios could easily fit that requirement and this could be his best option for a bigger payday.  Detroit is desperate to get an offense that can consistently hit all year round and Rios has been pretty consistent in the last few years.  The downside is of course the power numbers will continue to decline in that spacious field.

Texas Rangers: Yes they just declined his $14 million option but that’s probably cause they think they can sign him for less.  Rios would be in the drivers seat on this one since the Rangers don’t have a lot of options to really fall back on.  While Rios didn’t fair so well in his first full season there he did just fine in the half season he had in 2013.

Atlanta Braves: This one comes with an asterisk right on the bat since this could happen only if the rumor that the Braves are potentially trading Jason Heyward to the Boston Red Sox is true.  If that’s then the team will need a new outfielder but at the same time if they do this the teams in rebuild mode so they’re not likely spending money on aging outfielders.

Milwaukee Brewers: While the team does have a pretty strong outfield at the moment it all hinges on how much they believe in Khris Davis.  Davis was on pace at one point last season to shatter the strike out record just after the All-Star break but he finally found his swing and ended up being a strong rookie campaign.  Rios would be more consistent but Davis has the upside.

Arizona Diamondbacks: The team doesn’t really have a set RF for next season at this moment so it could work for Rios.  It’s a hitter friendly field and less pressure than both Texas and Detroit would be so it has its advantages.  On the down side the D-Backs aren’t likely to fork up the cash that Detroit and Texas can so it would be a price cut.  Secondly the team isn’t ready to be in the playoff hunt next year but its time is coming, a 34-year-old RF may not fit into their plans.

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