Well
the baseball season is over but that doesn’t mean the game goes quite
either. For now what I plan on
doing is looking at this seasons free agents, players that are up for a big pay
day or just bench players. I plan
to also give reports on signings and my feelings on them. This week we start with a scouting
report and outlook at Marlon Byrd.
Marlon
Byrd played with two teams this season: the Mets and the Pirates and helped the
Pirates get to the playoffs for the first time in many years. Byrd is an ageless wonder; he will be
36 by the beginning of the 2014 season and will turn 37 near the end of the
season and has had some of his best seasons in the last few years hitting for
power and not killing the team hitting for AVG. Lets take a quick look at Byrd and see what he has in store
for this offseason.
Offense
Byrd
is a career .280/.336/.425 slash line with a K/BB ratio of 2.8, this is good
and slightly above average overall though his K/BB rate could be better being
on the lower end. Byrd has an OPS
of .760, which is middle of the road much like his OBP and SLG would
imply. Now one thing that does
stand out is the rise in ISO in the last few years: .164, .194, .119,
.035(injured), and last season a .220 a pretty big jump. His power can flux a bit but I don’t
think he’s a power guy overall, his only 2 seasons with 20+ HR’s were the 09
with the Rangers and last years splitting time with the Mets and Pirates. I see him as a 10 HR guy but he’s not
going to be paid like one this offseason.
His
contact rate has been in decline slowly since 09 where he had a 79% contact
rate. Last season he ended the
season with a 72% contact rate, which is the biggest drop since the 09
season. His lowering Contact rate
is starting to become a trend and one that teams need to recognize. Combine this with a rising K/BB rate
teams need to note that his AVG is going to dip bad at some point and if the lowering
Contact rate and rising Swing% are to be believed id actually say its going to
be sooner.
Defense
Bryd
has never had a strong arm but he is fast and has decent defense. He has a career .986 Fielding
Percentage which is decent for his position but this again is his career
percentage and many of his other stats are on the decline. His FSR (Fan Scouting Report) has been
on the decline since 09, on a scale where -15 is awful and 15 Byrd rates a
-6. His UZR tells a similar story;
rating on the same scale as FSR he ranks a 15.6 for his career. Now last year Byrd rated a 2.4, which is
just barely average, in 09 Byrd had a 10.2 and has had it dropping fast since
then. Sad to say Byrd is becoming
more and more of a DH rather than a OF and this should become a factor when a
team signs him.
Outlook
Byrd
made 6.5 million in 2012 and 700K in 2013 roughly averaging 3.5 million since
the 09 season mostly playing in the NL.
Given what he did last season Byrd is going to find many teams that
could use him but seeing how the he is trending down any team that signs him is
getting a diminished return. I
wouldn’t be shocked to see a 2-year deal worth 10-15 million. Personally I see either the Baltimore
O’s or the Seattle Mariners, teams that could use a good DH and still let Byrd
play the field if he demands it.
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