Playoff Team Outlook

Playoff Team Outlook

            Here we are, the most exciting part of the baseball season and why we watched 162 games.  The post season is here and we’re looking to have one heck of a post season where we really are seeing the best of the best teams getting in.  While we don’t know everyone that will be in the playoffs till near the end of the season but for now we know most of the teams: Boston Red Sox, Oakland Athletics, Detroit Tigers, Atlanta Braves, St. Louis Cardinals, Cincinnati Reds, Pittsburg Pirates and the Los Angeles Dodgers have all clinched a berth.  While we wait for the last 2 AL Wild Card teams clinch lets take a quick look at each of the teams we do know.  Lets look at the strengths and weaknesses of these teams and evaluate their chances.

            Lets start with the AL and the overall favorites so far, the Boston Red Sox.

Boston Red Sox: Lets start with the hitting and what an offense they have, firstly they have the leagues best BABIP at .381 and that’s a big deal.  They get on base and get hits a lot when the balls put in play, forcing plays and getting those tough calls can play big into the teams post season success.  A team slash line of .276/.347/.434 which ranks 2^nd/1^st/2^nd in the AL, the team they’re behind is the team they most likely face the Detroit Tigers.  This is a potent offense and can pick up the slack if the pitching starts to struggle.  Speaking of pitching, the team doesn’t just have a good offense but a top rotation and bullpen.  The team has an ERA of 3.63, which is the 3rd best in the AL, but there is something to note, the teams FIP is 4.08.  The defense is very good and is probably why the teams ERA is so low, I don’t think it’s a factor but it could show up.  A very strong K/9 and BB/9 ratio makes this staff a powerhouse in the post season.

Players to watch: Jacoby Ellsbury and Koji Uehara

Oakland A’s: Here’s the team that is still a bit of a shocker to me but not a total one.  The A’s were wonderful last year and they built up from last season but having average hitting and well above average defense and pitching.  The A’s offense suffered this year thanks to the ill slumps of Josh Reddick and Yoenis Cespedes but with the rise of Josh Donaldson and, to everyone’s shock, Coco Crisp to take their places.  The teams slash line .246/.315/.412 just restates that the teams offense is just average at best but it wins games.  A BABIP of .323 is above average which works in their favor but its mostly singles as the teams GPA is .245 is just average.  Now the pitching is another story completely, a 3.25 ERA and a 3.79 FIP show this team has very good pitching ranking 1^st and 5^th respectively.  The strength is the ability to keep runners from getting free bases and having a league best BB/9 of 3.5 helps them a lot.  Playoffs can be won on pitching so while this isn’t an offensive powerhouse like Boston its defiantly one of the top teams in the playoffs.

Players to watch: Josh Donaldson, Bartolo Colon

Detroit Tigers: This team is the scariest but also the one that could really struggle.  The team looks good across the board with a slash line of .284/.347/.439 which is the best in baseball not just the AL.  They hit the ball hard raking up an OPS of .786 and a team ISO of .155, that seems low but that’s good in ISO terms.  The team does have a massive weakness though since the bats can’t help the defense.  While being better this year than last year they can lose focus at times and let things get away form them.  Another problem is the pitching, Justin Verlander having an unVerlander type year.  Max Scherzer is someone to watch and could be the saving grace to the staff if Anibal Sanchez and Verlander struggle.  The teams ERA sitting at 3.82 and a WHIP of 1.28, very high for a team and a lot to do with the bullpen.  A oddity though is the fact the teams FIP is lower than the ERA at 3.74, its not much but note worthy to say they got a little unlucky.  In the end the team could do some damage at the plate but if the pitching fails the team may have a repeat of last year.

Players to watch: Miguel Cabrera, Max Scherzer

Cleveland Indians: I never expected this team to make it this far and I’m happy to be wrong.  They, much like the Pirates, aren’t the prototypical playoff team but they do have a strong lineup and good pitching.  With a slash line of .252/.325/.407 they have had a good season and are pretty much even with the Braves in terms of productivity.  A GPA of .248 is average but they do get a good amount of extra-base hits.  The one downer about their offense is the lack of good SB guys, even with Michael Bourn leading the team they only have a SB% at 66%; this isn’t terrible and not nearly the worst but its also not the best and is one of the lower of the teams in the playoffs.  As for the pitching they don’t have the worst but it’s defiantly not a strength of the team.  ERA of 3.68 isn’t good but a good sign but a FIP of 3.48, 20 points lower, says the pitching is just got some bad luck.  The bullpen isn’t as strong as they’d want but its not as bad as the Reds have it.

Players to watch: Jason Kipnis, Ubaldo Jimenez

Tampa Bay Rays: I liked this team from the beginning and they didn’t disappoint, well slightly disappoint but not terrible.  The teams strength lies in its pitching and defense, they also have the one thing no team can match Joe Maddon.  The hitting is not really up to par, at least hitting for power that is.  .252/.323./.395 slash line is good but again the power is not really strong.  The OBP is average so this can help deal with the lack the power.  HR’s have never been the teams but they do hit for doubles to keep their GPA of .248 alive.  The pitching is strong but this year did show some weaknesses in the bullpen, which was a strong point last year.  The ERA of 3.61 is higher than we’d like to see but a FIP of 3.51 is better but not too much better.  The best thing about this team is the strong K/9 of 11.0 is very good and one of the best in the AL and MLB.  This team could go far in the playoffs but I have my doubts they could beat a fully healthy Red Sox.

Players to watch: Even Longoria, David Price

Atlanta Braves: This team very much resembles the A’s in some respects but is the very definition of a feast or famine team.  A slash line of .257/.324/.401 is defiantly lower than we all thought it would be considering the blistering hot start for the team.  Justin Upton is the poster boy of this team in many ways since he went with the team in the ups and downs.  Having nearly 10 HR’s by the end of the second week but then almost 2 months without a HR.  This teams strength is going to come in defense and pitching, this is where the team can have an advantage.  The defense is above average but a lot of that is do to Andrelton Simmons and his gold glove winning skills.  Having that glove and arm up the middle is going to make teams struggle getting hits on the left side of the field.  As for pitching the team has an ERA of 3.10, 2^nd best behind the Dodgers, and a WHIP of 1.19 again behind the Dodgers.  The best news for the team is the FIP, which is 3.34; the team has been very good even with an average defense behind them and they can keep doing what they’re doing.  With a K% over 10 and a BB% under 4 they can hold most teams at bay.  The real test is to see if the hitting can match up.

Players to watch: Andrelton Simmons, Kris Medlen

St Louis Cardinals: To start this off I’ll say this, I personally think that the Cardinals are the best team in the NL and they are my pick to make it to the World Series.  With that said this team is the best of the best, they can hit and they can pitch making them the team to beat.  Also having the leagues best BA with RISP doesn’t hurt your chances.  They’re RISP is .313 and the next closest is the Red Sox at .287, quite the gap.  They own a slash line of .268/.329/.407 which is strong but also may be the weakness of the team.  They’re very strong but not powerful in any stat specifically; a GPA of .250 is good but also shows their not overpowering.  At this point the team is solid and does everything right hitting wise and they’re just as good in pitching.  The ERA of 3.72 is actually a little misleading since the teams FIP is currently 3.52 over 20 points lower.  With the WHIP of 1.27 it leads me to believe that this team’s defense has let them down more than once.  It’s a good defense with a FPCT of .988 but the OF has been week.  Back to the pitching, the teams K% is in the top of MLB (10.8%) and the BB% is just as good (3.6%) and having one the leagues best HR/FB%, 5%, helps teams win.

Players to watch: Matt Carpenter, Trevor Rosenthal

Los Angeles Dodgers: Probably the most improbable team to make the playoffs this year.  They’re a great team but with all the health issues they had in the beginning of the season and then the struggles of their stars they were in last place near the mid point of the season.  With that said the teams slash line ended up .267/.328/.420, much like the Cardinals they are very good but nothing to spectacular.  The team just does everything above average, they steal at an 88% success rate, they have a BA RISP of .272 so on so forth; all very good but not Tigers levels.  The pitching is what may decide the winner in the matchups.  With Clayton Kershaw and Zack Greinke leading the staff it can be very tough to get wins in game 1 and 2.  The teams ERA is sitting at 2.91 and a FIP of 3.27, very solid and some of the lower of the ERA and FIP in the league and with a WHIP of 1.17 they are going to trouble for any team having to go up against them.

Players to watch: Hanley Ramirez, Clayton Kershaw

Cincinnati Reds: The first of the Wild Card in the NL and fighting the Pirates for the home field advantage for the actual wild card spot.  This is a hitter team that hasn’t really done a lot of hitting.  A slash line of .248/.321/.411 and a GPA of .247 I think sums up the teams hitting problems.  They’re much like the Braves in that they are a feast or famine team, they have the ability to hit 4-5-6 HR’s a game but they also have a high team K% sitting at 20%.  The team also isn’t really hitting well with RISP sitting at .249; not terrible but also not the best they probably hoped for.  The pitching has looked good but also very lucky.  The ERA of 3.32 looks great until you notice the FIP of 3.80 almost 50 points higher and the better hitting teams are going to take advantage of this.  The team has a decent WHIP of 1.22 and a good K% and BB% so we can only wait and see if the team’s defense can keep helping them.

Players to watch: Joey Votto, Andolis Chapman

Pittsburgh Pirates: The surprise team of the year, I watched them as they played and tempered my expectations considering what they’ve done the last few years.  So looking at this season the team has had a lot of struggles to over come.  They don’t have the best offense with a BA w/RISP of .208 in the last 3 months.  This doesn’t bold well for them in the playoffs but then again they’re in the playoffs with the 2^nd worst RISP so they score when they need to.  A slash line of .246/.314/.398 also doesn’t give me much confidence that they can survive a full playoff run.  But again while not impressive they do well enough to survive, the GPA of .241 is just average but not terrible.  The strength of the team is the pitching especially the bullpen, a 3.14 ERA and 3.22 FIP is very good and one of the best in the NL.  A WHIP of 1.28 is a little high but nothing that will kill them.  In the end this isn’t a top choice for the World Series but we shall see how far they can go.

Players to watch: Sterling Marte, Francisco Liriano

Scouting Report: Jose Fernandez

Scouting Report: Jose Fernandez

            So far all we’ve seen is on my scouting reports are hitters, today we look at one of the games best young pitchers Jose Fernandez.  Fernandez was drafted in 2011 and already is in the majors at the age of 21 and quickly made a name for himself as being a very talented pitcher that can handle the majors just fine.  The hardest part of looking at Fernandez is simple; we don’t have a lot of info on him as a player since he’s only played 2 full seasons and only 1 in the majors so what we can do is look at the numbers and using averages figure out how sustainable are the numbers he’s put up.  Lets take a look and see what this guy did this season.

            The first thing we can look at is his K/9, BB/9 and K/BB ratios to see how good he is.  Fernandez has a K/9 of 9.75 this means he’s striking out a little more than 1 batter an inning, which is amazing!  For reference the highest K/9 rate in for a single season is 13.5 by Randy Johnson, Fernandez ranks 81 on the all time single season chart (out of qualifying pitchers).  This is great for his future but I don’t see how he keeps that level of production up at least at that level, he may be a 9 K’s per 9 guy but for now I think we should see how next year turns out.  Fernandez also has a BB/9 rate of 3.0, this is kind of one of the reasons I worry.  Its average but that is still a few to many BB’s for a pitcher to give up and could end up biting in the future.  Much like the K/9 rate id still want to hold off on judgment of future, he is still young enough that he can fine tune his aim and his talent is there to easily do this.  His K/BB is impressive but if he didn’t walk so many hitters it would be better; having a 3.22 is still nothing to shake a stick at but once he gets his BB’s down that should be a 8.0, he has that potential.  One good thing to note is that his H/9 or hits per 9 is .52 meaning he gave up less than 1 hit per inning, which is very impressive.

            Next lets see how he’s doing in ERA, WHIP and FIP.  First lets see his WHIP since it ties into what we’ve talked about, he ends the season at .98 WHIP and that’s very good.  Less than a hit or BB an inning is how you win games and if he were on any other team this alone would have won games for any team.  But since we’ve already gone into this last paragraph there’s less to say really, his big problem is the BB but if he lowers that and can keep the hits down this could be were his WHIP stays.

            ERA is a funny stat, while still relevant its not the best measure of a pitchers worth or value.  There is a reason you always here me mention ERA and FIP normally right after each other because ERA doesn’t really just include the pitchers skill but his defense as well.  FIP is a stat that gauges the pitchers skill better since it only looks at the things the pitcher has direct control over.  So knowing this lets take a look.  Fernandez finished the season with an ERA of 2.19, very good a well above average ERA especially for a starter.  His ability to keep the ball down and keep hitters from getting good lift on the ball limits the HR’s.  His ERA- is 59 meaning he’s in the top 50% of pitchers in ERA this year.  His FIP whoever says something else and this is where we see those pesky BB’s come into play.  His FIP is 2.79; a full 70 points higher than his ERA and while normal that is something to wonder about.  Remember FIP is what a pitchers ERA would be based on his influence so that means he pitched at a 2.79 ERA level, and this is nothing to complain about.  Yes I sound negative but I’m just pointing out how those BB’s have effects that you don’t normally see.  In the end I see this staying near the levels but his ERA will come up I can see him pitching closer to a 2.40-2.60 level but that FIP doesn’t seem to far off from the truth.

            Now this was my first pitcher scouting report and it may not have been smart to choose a rookie that doesn’t have a background to compare to, why did I do it then?  Simply put he needs to be more recognized than he is, I know you heard about him during the season but he’s going to be one of the best pitchers in baseball very soon and we all need to watch this guy.  Next time I do a pitcher I’ll be looking at more like pitches and GB%, FB% and such but Fernandez is to new to see if this is the normal guy.

Power Ranking: September 18th

Power Rankings: September 18^th

1.     Boston Red Sox

2.     Oakland A’s

3.     Detroit Tigers

4.     St. Louis Cardinals

5.     Atlanta Braves

6.     Los Angeles Dodgers

7.     Cincinnati Reds

8.     Cleveland Indians

9.     Pittsburgh Pirates

10. Kansas City Royals

This is a very tough week because so many teams are doing well but may not have much of a play in the playoffs; Angels, Nationals, Padres and Giants had very solid weeks and have been messing with teams that are trying for the playoffs.  The biggest change to the rankings this time is 2 teams are missing.  The Rangers and Rays have both had just terrible weeks and not just weeks but the Rangers have had such a terrible month that I don’t think they’re making the playoffs this year.  The Rays have managed to pick it up in the last few days of the weeks but they’re close to missing the playoffs too.  The Royals and Indians are making such strong pushes right now that one of these two has a strong chance to make the playoffs knocking out the Rangers.  The other thing that should be noted is how strong the A’s look right now and they’re primed to run away with the division.

Bottom 5:

            26. Chicago White Sox

            27. Chicago Cubs

            28. New York Mets

            29. Houston Astros

            30. Miami Marlins

Really no surprises here, though as a personal note the Astros may be losing but have actually been one of the better teams with RISP and the pitching has been pretty good.  A good team is a few years away.

Fantasy Finals Hints

Fantasy Finals Hints

            Were coming down to the last 2 weeks of the season before the playoffs begin for MLB.  But if your like me your fighting for your own championship in a fantasy league or two.  So as a quick little blog post lets talk a little strategy for fantasy league finals.  There is not order to these hints it’s just my opinion and this isn’t a list of things that you have to do.

·      Figure out your keepers: Ok so this one is specific to keeper leagues but right now is a good time to finalize your picks.  Figure out, or just take your best guess, if the player you plan on keeping has had value growth or you just know if you threw him back to the draft you’d lose him.  This is a big deal for players like Jose Fernandez and Matt Carpenter, guys whose value is better than he was drafted last draft.

·      Pay attention to your injuries: This is something that someone can miss or just not notice.  At this point in the finals injuries can bog you down horribly.  Example: in my main league I pay attention to I have Carlos Gonzalez, David Wright, Allen Craig and Brett Gardner all are injured.  This is a tough spot since only 1 is on the DL the rest you need to watch and adjust.

·      Watch your roster spots: This is linked to the above point where if you have to many injuries you may need to make a super tough choice.  In the league I mentioned I just dropped CarGo to pick up someone to fill in the spot I needed.  It’s a massive gamble; while he’s not scheduled to come back but if he does come back I just dropped a power piece.  But if you need the spot and they’re not coming back don’t be afraid to drop these guys.  Don’t be afraid to drop anyone if you’re in the running to win now.

·      Spot Starts for the win: Play the numbers and watch the match ups to try and give your team the best chance to win.  Have a guy just pitch and you see a favorable match up?  Pick him up and look for the next guy to stream.  This doesn’t mean drop everyone but this is a good strategy to use if you’re losing in some Pitching stats.

·      Watch your opponent’s: In Roto or Head to Head leagues always keep an eye on what your opponent is trying to do.  If you see him making moves to win a stat that’s close you may need to change up your own strategy to counter that attempt.  Never hurts to keep your enemies close.

·      Know the rules: Yes this one seems like a no brainer but it happens.  Last year my dad and I were in a situation where we were tied and we both assumed the tiebreaker was ERA like in other leagues we had been in before.  At the end of the week we stayed tied but my dad had won ERA so we both assumed he was the winner, the next day we looked and I had won and we didn’t find out why till this years playoffs.  Moral is don’t assume the rules know the rules so you don’t end up the fool like my dad.

Well hopefully this helps many of you out there that are in the heat of the playoffs.  One last thing I’ll suggest; be a good sport.  Don’t be that guy that guy that complains after losing because the other team beating you for one reason or another.  If you win, win with grace and if you lose, lose with dignity.  There’s no reason to make the person who wins feel bad for winning and take away what they just did because you got upset or things didn’t go your way.

My Lineup: Arizona Diamondbacks

My Lineup: Arizona Diamondbacks

            With all the talk the last few days about the Dbacks having problems with Kurt Gibson’s ability to make a line up I decided to try something new.  Using sabermetric stats (and not looking at the current “lineup”) I want to make what I feel is an optimized lineup using saber stats.  I plan to use different stats to compliment the players depending on where they fall in the lineup.  An example would be the difference from the person batting 3^rd to the person batting 7^th.  You don’t need a good SLG and or GPA in the 7^th spot but a good OBP and contact rate is important to both.  So with that lets take a look at what I would have the lineup at with the Arizona Diamondbacks.

1)   Martin Prado-LF

2)   Aaron Hill-2B

3)   Eric Chavez-3B

4)   Paul Goldschmidt-1B

5)   Adam Eaton-CF

6)   Miguel Montero-C

7)   Gerardo Parra-RF

8)   Didi Gregorious-SS

9)   Pitcher

I like this lineup personally and I see it having a lot of potential, well at least in the font of the lineup.  The team doesn’t have many power threats beyond Goldschmidt and Hill so making a lineup that can stay a threat was a little tough but I think I like this.  So lets look at what I did.  The team normally has Parra leading off but looking at the stats I noticed that Prado not only has a better AVG and OBP which I like in a lead off hitter but he has a better swing %, contact %, BB% and K%.  It goes without saying that his BB/K is also better making Prado a much better option to Parra.  The only downside is Prado isn’t a base stealer, though that doesn’t make him a bad base runner just not a stealer.  I put Hill batting second under the theory that you want your best hitter should bat 1^st, 2^nd and 4^th.  But Hill is one of the team leaders in HR’s, SLG, OBP, AVG and RC.  Him being in the 2 hole will help create and score runs for the team that no one else can.  Eric Chavez is the oddest choice; an older player that does have power but the injury risk makes him a hard choice to back up.  But here’s the thing about Chavez, he’s still one of the better contact hitters on the team.  He’s got an 84% contact rate the ability to hit .290 easy.  Goldschmidt is obviously the best fit for the clean up spot.  The hard part after Goldschmidt is like I mentioned earlier, very few good OPS guys after the top 4.  Eaton is good as a contact hitter an will develop power later on but for now he’s got a 15 HR guy at most.  The only player that has a good chance to improve his chances is Miguel Montero who is having a bad season so far but can easily hit for better power and AVG than he is now.

            Well there it is, let me know what you think.

Power Rankings: September 4th

Power Rankings: September 4th

1)   Atlanta Braves

2)   Boston Red Sox

3)   Detroit Tigers

4)   LA Dodgers

5)   St. Louis Cardinals

6)   Pittsburg Pirates

7)   Texas Rangers

8)   Cincinnati Reds

9)   Oakland Athletics

10)         Tampa Bay Rays

Things are starting to get tight in baseball know that the playoffs are less then a month away and were not seeing much change has accrued.  That said that doesn’t mean every team is in the clear.  The Tampa Bay Rays, in the last 2 weeks, has a record of 4-10.  That’s a problem for the Rays to slump this late in the season with teams like the Kansas City Royals, Cleveland Indians, and New York Yankees not that far behind them.  The Pittsburgh Pirates is another team that has to worry some when they have a 7-6 record in the last 2 weeks but a very poor .228 RISP in that time.  While the Atlanta Braves don’t have many things to worry about the Reds/Cardinals/Pirates do need to watch their backs since the Washington Nationals have been amazing.  10-4 in the last 2 weeks and with a team stat line of .302/.368/.481 makes them look dangerous.  The wild card could be very interesting to watch.  Now to the part everyone loves, our Bottom 5.

Bottom 5

            26) Chicago White Sox

            27) New York Mets

            28) Milwaukee Brewers

            29) Houston Astros

            30) Miami Marlins

Really no surprises but there are more teams that could have made this list.  The Seattle Mariners inched out the Chicago White Sox barely and I still wonder if they deserved it more than the New York Mets.  The one change that you can see is the Houston Astros are 29^th now over the Miami Marlins; mainly since the team has been doing decently and the Marlins have been so terrible this last few weeks.

Do Inning Limits Help?

Do Inning Limits Help?

            This is going to be a short one but one that is going to be more and more relative.  With the injury to Matt Harvey this week it’s bringing up the question again that limiting the innings of a pitcher, not just young arms, to save their arms for the future.  The question really is not if they should do it or not since a team is going to do it if we want them to or not, the real question is does it do anything?

            When it comes to my opinion, I believe that we should always stand on the side of caution and doing what we can to limit the injuries of all players not just pitchers.  In an interview done by Ben Lindbergh of Baseball Prospectus, Glenn Fleisig of the American Sports Medicine Institute had this to say

            “Trying to keep things simple, our science and our medicine here at ASMI has shown some things. It’s not just the velocity, but the pitcher with better mechanics and sharing the load more with the whole body, whereas the pitcher with worse mechanics is putting a bigger share of the load on your elbow or shoulder. So not all 90-mph fastballs are the same. A 90-mph fastball with proper mechanics is less stressful on the elbow and shoulder, so mechanics is definitely one factor.

The other thing is—this is a big concept that people are overlooking—the arm, the elbow, the shoulder of any of these pitchers—these are living people, they’re not pieces of metal or plastic or whatever. So you can’t just count things up. In other words, you’ve heard the analogy: people say ‘You have so many bullets, and you don’t shoot all your bullets,’ you shouldn’t always just blow it on one game or season or this or this or that. That analogy works with bullets, because if you had a case of bullets and you shot them all, you would be out. But an arm, or pitches in an arm, is not a proper analogy, because a pitcher doesn’t have a certain number of throws in his arm. That’s true because pitchers are living, breathing, and their arm is repairing. The arm is breaking down and repairing.”

I like what Fleisig says here.  Pretty much saying that its not just a it’s not so much that the player throwing over and over and over that hurts a player.  Yes this plays a factor but the more important thing is the mechanics of the pitcher that will determine his health.

            In the end it’s going to be the teams who decide what they want to do with a pitcher.  Me I think there’s no “harm” in watching a pitchers innings but if he is properly managed by the manager and bullpen coach I don’t see the harm in letting him go.  If you’d like to see more of the interview, after all that is a small bit of a larger interview but I didn’t want this post being another novel, here’s the link.  http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=17517

I suggest taking a look if your interested.