Fantasy
Studs and Busts
The
first month of baseball is under our belts and its time to look at who helped
teams the most in the first month of the season. To explain what I mean by Stud, to me it is a player that
preformed above expectations and it helps his stock the lower in the draft he
was taken. As for a Bust, it’s a
player that his value didn’t match where you had to draft him. With this list I’m going to mention the
players by position and I won’t be listing them all since I can name quite of
few per position.
C
Stud: Jarrod Saltalamachia-
Currently number 3 on ESPN player rater and the reason I mention him above guys
like Buster Posey and Matt Wieters (both studs in their own rights) is where he
was drafted. Most leagues he went
undrafted in most leagues and even now is only owned in 25% of leagues. Hitting for a solid average and hitting
with power has made him a fantasy staple for the first month. Personally I don’t see this continuing
at this level but a .270 BA with 25 HRs isn’t out of the question, which still
makes him elite.
Value: In the end he could be a
good sell high but personally I’m holding on to him and I’m a believer.
Bust: Carlos Santana- Was one of
the top drafted C’s in the draft and has rewarded teams with a .139 BA 11 RBI’s
and 4 HR’s. The reasons for such
regression isn’t 100% clear and could just be a slow start. Maybe transferring to 3B has messed
with him mentally but from reports that does not sound the case. Its likely just a bad start and think
he’ll pick it up sooner rather than later.
Value: Buy low, he may be a more
expensive buy low but someone is probably panicking on him.
1B
Stud: Jose Abreu and Albert Pujols-
What I have to say applies to both in many ways. Both seem to have found that HR swing very early and in
Abreu’s case he’s on a record setting pace. I worry that both are problems when it comes to BA, Pujols
less than Abreu but if I had to guess I’d say Abreu ends the season with 34
HR’s .262 BA and 80 RBI’s and Pujols will end the season with 34 HR’s .283 BA
and 104 RBI’s.
Value: Hold on to them but be sure
to grab a good back up just in case of injury.
Bust: Miguel Cabrera- Wow no one
saw this coming and it’s been a pain for most fantasy teams. I just wrote a piece on Cabrera so if
you want to see what I saw go here.
Value: Hold tight, he’s to good to
struggle for long.
2B
Stud: Dee Gordon- Did I really just
say Dee Gordon as a stud? Wow these
are the end times after all. But
in all seriousness he’s been amazing stealing 20 bases in 1 month! There are risks here though, he’s just
as free of a swinger as he’s always been and that BA my take a dive soon but I
think he can keep it up. I predict
70 SB (you heard me!) and a BA of .285.
Value: Depends on you level of
belief and team needs but your not going to find this value on the waiver wire
so stay pat and enjoy those SB’s that my teams have struggled to get.
Bust: Robinson Cano- I’m seeing a
pattern here, the second time a top pick is on this list. To be fair Cano is still hitting for a
good BA and getting RBI’s, the issue is that power and considering you needed
to spend a first round pick on him you just expected more from him. I still say he ends the season with 20
HR’s so just be patient.
Value: You could try and buy low
but if they drafted him in the first round your still going to ask for a pretty
penny.
3B
Stud: Nolan Arenado- When he came
up last season the Fantasy Focus warned us to keep an eye on him. Baseball America and Baseball
Prospectus said that he was an elite talent in the waiting. Well he has arrived and in a major way
hitting for AVG, HR’s and RBI’s and is in a 28 game hitting streak. There are some warning signs though,
while being very productive on the road he has done most of his damage at home
like most of Colorado. In the end
the skies the limit for this guy and I think he could have a 25 HR season with
a .290 AVG.
Value: You got to hold tight and
never let go.
Bust: Adrian Beltre- Man what a
slow start for him but injuries didn’t help. Another player that was commonly taking in the first round
Beltre is starting to turn it around recently but his struggles could just be a
slow start. The injury took half
the month from him but he wasn’t doing much before hand anyways. He’s still going to end the season with
a .300 AVG, 30 HR’s and 100+ RBI’s.
I have faith in him
Value: Hold tight, he still has
great value.
SS
Stud: Troy Tulowitzki- Do I really
need to go into this one?
Value: Look up and what do you
think?
Bust: Ian Desmond- One of the top 3
SS’s drafted this year and he hasn’t shown much in return. Desmond is batting a mere .226 with 4
HR’s and 2 SB and 11 RBI’s. While
he wasn’t drafted for his BA but the good news is his BABIP is lower than his
career so this could be just a slow start. If and when he turns it around he’ll be back to normal and
once he gets more consistent the power will come back.
Value: A good value in a buy low
but it comes with risk. If you own
him look for a good backup and bench him ONLY if you have to.
OF
Stud(s): Charlie Blackmon- No one
saw this coming and it’s quite the ride.
Hitting for power and BA while actually stealing a good amount a bases
he’s been giving believers some amazing value since even 12 team leagues he
went undrafted. It’s hard to
believe he can keep this pace up but to be fair he’s never had any real playing
time so it’s a wait and see.
Something to be weary of is the fact he does ALL his damage in Colorado so
keep this in mind.
Value: He is a prototypical sell
high candidate but you have to find the right believer. He isn’t going to keep up the paces
he’s doing but he I don’t think he’s going to come crashing back down to earth.
Giancarlo Stanton- Has just an
absolute beast of a player even given his team around him. We knew that Stanton was a star on the
rise but it seems to have finally reached the potential we thought he had. While he has never shown that much
skill in BA I believe in his ability to maintain the average. I can see him ending the season with a
.290/.340/.550 line with 35 HR’s and 100 RBI.
Value: Hold on to him unless you
get a trade that just blows you away.
Jose Bautista- Having a very solid
season so far hitting for solid power and hitting for a strong AVG that I would
have guessed. Bautista isn’t a
major AVG guy so I do expect it to drop going forward but how much is a debate,
personally I don’t see it dropping any further than .270. He is a bigger OBP guy though and if
you have him in an OBP league he could be your star. Look for him to keep up the power and he’ll give you another
30 HR season.
Value: Hold on to him, if he starts
to faulter in AVG just tough it out since the HR’s and RBI’s will be worth it.
Bust(s): Adam Jones- Struggling to
make that pick you had to use to get him, either a late 1st or early
2nd, but things will look up.
Thing about Jones is he’s not a super AVG guy and he doesn’t steal as
much but he has elite power and RBI potential and that’s the problem. You expected more HR’s from this guy at
this point and the RBI’s are flowing in either. But that will change you just need to be patient and he’ll
end the season batting .280 with 33 HR’s and 90 RBI’s.
Value: You can sell him but at the
moment you’re not going to get as much value since he’s not doing great. I’d hold on to him if I had him, and I
do.
Jay Bruce: Really is the same issue
as Adam Jones so every thing above applies here, though he isn’t going to hit
for nearly as much average.
Value: Low right now since he’s
hurt but if your worried about his lower AVG it wouldn’t be a bad idea to look
at what you can get for him.
Bryce Harper: Before I go to much
further ill say I’m a believer in Harper’s talent. To be fair the only real issue is the power hasn’t been
there so far but before being hurt he was batting .289. The RBI’s and HR’s are coming but I
would lower whatever expectations you may have had, he’ll more likely end the
season with 20 than 30 HR’s and closer to 80 RBI’s.
Value: Good buy low candidate
especially since he’s on the DL.
P
Stud(s): Tim Hudson- He has been
fabulous so far this season and in the stadium he is in I doubt that it will
change. He’s a control pitcher so
the K’s may take a dip at some point but the WHIP and ERA are for real. Even better news is his FIP says he’s
pitching just fine and even if he regresses it’s not going to be a lot. Overall considering where you drafted
him your getting max value.
Value: You could sell high since he
isn’t going to end the season as a top 5 pitcher but he could end in the top 10
so I’d hold on to him.
Francisco Rodriguez- When the
season he was the teams closer but was expected to lose the job within the
first 3 weeks. Now he has turned
out to be one of the most reliable closers in fantasy. Striking out at a rate of 1 batter an
inning and still not giving up a run yet means he’s not losing his job any time
soon. He could end the season with
40 Saves this season if he keeps going at this pace.
Value: Your going to want to hold
on to him, as long as the team keeps winning he’ll get opportunities.
Bust(s): David Price- He’s been
struggling mightily so far and it reminds me of last year. Maybe just a thing of David Price may
have to deal with, he’s still striking out a lot of hitters and that WHIP isn’t
that bad. It looks like some bad
luck came his way.
Value: You might be able to trade
for him but the value hasn’t really lowered much, but if your trying get him
before he gets traded.
Jim Johnson- Johnson seems to have
these stretches where he’s the best closer in the game to one of the
worst. He’s very prone to these
streaks of 3 blown saves in a row then locking down the next 15. If you drafted Johnson then you’ve been
severely disappointed with what you’re getting from him so far. He even lost his job for some time and
it came very early in the season.
Value: Buy low, yes I just gave him
a pretty negative little review but that makes him all the easier to trade
for. He will likely still get to
50 Saves this year so don’t be surprised if he does.
No comments:
Post a Comment